The women’s soccer tournament at the Olympics is, essentially, snorting a miniature World Cup. You take the intensity of global competition, squish it from 32 teams down to 12, and play the whole thing over the course of just seventeen days. It’s gonna be a wild ride, so to help us all prepare, I’ve previewed it all.

Group A | Group B

We’ve been blessed with incredible teams stuffed into three incredible groups in a way that guarantees each game will be a must, and necessary, watch. Below I’ve dropped a quick look at the group overall, then identified two players from each team that I think will be vital to their team’s performance (with help from StatsBomb where relevant), plus ask a key question each team will have to answer.

Lovely, let’s Olympics.

group C at-a-glance

This group is absolutely terrifying lmao. Obvs the 2023 World Cup champions, Spain, are there, but so is the resurgent Japan, who beat Spain 4-0 in the group stages at that same tournament. Nigeria and Brazil have deeply talented squads but have yet to take the leap Japan took prior to the World Cup. Thing is though, that leap can happen at any time.

Brazil and Nigeria are both integrating younger talent and working on finding a style that suits their new talent. But don’t sleep, Nigeria scrapped with eventual World Cup finalists England, and were a few combined inches away from one of their twenty(!) shots sending them home.

Brazil had the worst World Cup finish of anyone in this group, but uh, look at that squad. They yeeted coach Pia Sundhage and brought in a coach who’s trusted the youth to cook a bit more. Without the 21-year-old Tarciane the average age of their defenders is 30.8, while without the 38-year-old Marta their midfielders and forwards average 25.1.

Spain have the target, Japan weren’t scared in New Zealand and won’t be in France, and Nigeria and Brazil are both on the cusp of growing into teams that are consistently dangerous. Every match could have enough drama for them to scrap the anthems and just play the HBO theme instead.

whomsts i’m watching

Patri Guijarro

Patri Guijarro stood ten toes on mf’n business, and hasn’t played for the Spanish national team since Las 15 declined callups in September of 2022, in an effort to spur change in the federation (RFEF). Some of those fifteen slowly trickled back in as the federation made promises, but Guijarro wasn’t one of them.

She even missed the World Cup, which Spain won, and in the ceremony afterward we immediately saw why she was still skeptical, as then RFEF president Luis Rubiales forcibly kissed Jenni Hermoso prior to the trophy presentation.

Guijarro coming back is hopefully a sign that things are better, and that the inflection point post-World Cup shone a light RFEF couldn’t scurry away from. However, in April of this year, Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmatí stated in an interview that ‘nothing has changed.’

It remains to be seen if the 26-year-old Guijarro elected to continue her international career despite slow-or-unmoving progress, or if there has been actual improvement, even since April. Whatever the reason, she’s back and one of the best national teams on the planet is even better because of it.

Germany’s Lena Oberdorf is the best midfield destroyer on the planet, but Guijarro is the most complete. Her positioning and passing ability are delightfully efficient and maximally effective, and she showed the ability to step up from defensive midfield once Alexia Putellas went down with a torn ACL in July of 2022.

It was Aitana Bonmatí who took over Putellas’ role more directly, eventually winning a Ballon d’Or of her own as Barcelona continued to dominate without missing a beat. But her ability to fulfill the role by taking risks high up the pitch and inside the box was made possible in large part because Guijarro is always in the right place, and always finding and playing the right pass.

Salma Paralluelo

I dislike making broso comparisons but when it some to Spain’s national teams they hold a bit more value. There’s an identifiable way they prefer their teams to play, which makes them more similar than, say, the USMNT and USWNT. Anyway, if you watched any of Spain at the 2023 World Cup, or the men in this summer’s EUROs, trademark possession dominance has been injected with directness.

For the World Cup champions this came in the form of former track star Salma Paralluelo (see kids, don’t ever let anyone tell you athleticism is a thing to be ashamed of on the pitch). Paralluelo obvs ain’t just fast, but it doesn’t hurt to have track speed when the difference between a scoring chance and wasted opportunity depends on getting to the ball first.

Playing at Barcelona will help, but Paralluelo is clever and skilled enough to take advantage. In Liga F last season she scored 20 goals and delivered 3 assists. In 11 Champions League games (9 starts) she scored six goals and dished one assist. As you can see below, attacking the center of the goal is a specialty.

Paralluelo’s speed, directness and finishing help put a much sharper point on Spain’s intricate passing sequences.

key question
can you complete the set?

There’s a reason no one has won gold at the Olympics after winning the World Cup and the reason is because it’s hard af. World Cup cycles are grueling, and it’s a gargantuan ask to do it 11 months later in a truncated version designed to negate momentum and maximize chaos.

Spain has certainly received a boost with Guijarro rejoining, but prior to heading for Paris they’ve had results which suggest the World Cup hangover is still hangovering. They needed (and tbf, got) three goals in the final 18 minutes to get a come-from-behind 3-2 win over Denmark, but lost to Czech Republic 2-1 the following match.

This team already won Spain its first Women’s World Cup, and now have a chance to win its first ever medal in women’s soccer at the Olympics. If it’s gold, then they will have done something no other team has ever done.

whomsts i’m watching

Yui Hasegawa

This group has some truly elite midfielding. I just talked about Guijarro being damn near perfect, and Hasegawa recently bought a plot of land within the same zip code. Though I miss her playing closer to goal, she’s been exceptional as a defensive/deep-lying midfielder for Manchester City.

Hasegawa led all City players (min. 300 minutes) in possession adjusted (PAdj) interceptions per 90 with 3.01, and led the team—and entire WSL!—in pressured pass percentage, completing 91% of passes in the face of pressure. Japan have the ability to flip from possession-heavy to out-of-possession focused gameplans in part because of Hasegawa.

Hikaru Kitagawa

The 27-year-old defender is on this list because she has some large and rather magical boots to fill. Jun Endo, who expertly played the left wingback role for Japan at the World Cup, tore her ACL prior to the start of the NWSL season. Endo’s creative and intricate passing, plus 1v1 ability, gave Japan a dynamism they’ve yet to be able to replicate when she isn’t on the pitch.

Even Hina Sugita—one of my favorite players in the NWSL—struggled to fill-in at the World Cup. Japan’s extra fun World Cup run was halted by Sweden in the quarterfinal round after a match in which head coach Futoshi Ikeda opted for Sugita over Endo in the XI. The result was Japan’s worst half of football all tournament.

In a slight bit of yikesiness, Sugita wasn’t selected to the Olympic squad, even as an alternate. Miyabi Moriya has some experience playing the position post Olympics, but is only going to Paris as an alternate. Therefore it will be Kitagawa’s turn to try and fulfill those duties at a major tournament.

BONUS: Maika Hamano, forward
Hamano hasn’t cracked Japan’s starting XI yet, but is an absolute ball of energy and terror from the bench. The sample size obviously matters here, this is only 4.1 90s versus, like, Erin Cuthbert’s 18+, but this is per 90 and is an overall example.

Basically, Hamano is a running, pressing, shooting machine, which makes her a terrific option to call on to shift tense games in the margins.

key question
are you for real please tell me that you’re for real?

Japan showed glimpses of what they were building toward in the 2023 SheBelieves Cup. At the World Cup they announced themselves even further, absolutely dismantling the eventual champions, Spain, 4-0 in the group stage. They seem to have achieved this by keeping a core group and opting for a style familiar to players who’ve been playing with or against one another since academy days and youth tournaments.

They also brought in a familiar youth coach in Ikeda, who coached U20s and U17s prior to getting the senior job. All this familiarity makes them capable of more complex relationships than is typical of a national team, and made them fun af to watch. Now, though, people know about them and how they play. And while they’re adaptable, it is still tournament football, and all it takes is one lackluster performance (or half) at the wrong time.

If Japan are to prove that they’re back to being a serious threat to win major tournaments again, they’ll need to claim one of the steps on the final podium.

whomsts i’m watching

Jennifer Echegini

Echegini was a terror at Florida State, and was central to the team turning into a juggernaut that not just beat teams, but dominated them. In the 2023 College Cup final Stanford thought they wanted the smoke, and it didn’t take long for Echegini and FSU to convince them that they in fact did not want and could not handle the smoke at all.

Since leaving college, her next move was going to be interesting. Echegini eventually chose Juventus, who proceeded to do Juventus-y things, many of which required many billable hours, and she’s now left after one season. Though she scored 10 goals and dropped 1 assist in her first year as a pro, the move and direction of the club wasn’t what she had hoped. This offseason she signed with Paris St. Germain, which is also a club not unfamiliar with crisis.

Anyway, Echegini is fun and a constant goal threat. This Nigeria team is ultra talented but could use a player like Echegini offering a different spark and dimension through an increased role. If they find a way to incorporate her as a goal threat, it could be a tweak that helps Nigeria win games instead of drawing or keeping them close.

Toni Payne

To channel the great Sylvs of Shea Butter FC, “BIRMINGHAM’S OWN.”

For some USWNT fans, Toni Payne is one who got away. She played in the youth system alongside several well-known names, like Andi Sullivan. Payne can play on the wing but often shifts into attacking midfield for Nigeria. She’s a mobile player who can cover ground, shed defenders and win duels. With Sevilla in Liga F last season she used these kills to be top 10 in total progressive carries and carries into the penalty area.

People seem to sleep on Nigeria because they’re talented but the narrative is that they can never put it together. But at the World Cup they not only got out of their group, they played eventual runners up England to a 0-0 draw, only losing on penalties.

Payne was key then, and will be key now. If she can help Nigeria find timely goals, they could do a lot more than make it out of a very difficult tough group.

key question
wanna crash a party?

Every team in this group has something of a sense of entitlement. That’s not a bad thing, Spain just won their first World Cup, Brazil has the entire history of football behind them and are hosting the next Women’s World Cup in 2027, and Japan are former World Cup champions—they’ve all earned it.

Still, they put their boots on same as everyone, use the same laces, and trod on the same grass. Each of these teams will be looking to showcase themselves as serious contenders for the next handful of major tournament honors, and being on the final medal stand will go far in establishing that as true in the minds of millions. Nigeria have the talent and skill to crash any expected or anticipated coronation.

whomsts i’m watching

Kerolin

I was extremely surprised to see Kerolin, who tore her ACL last October, named to Brazil’s squad. Not as an alternate, like in the very limited 18 player squad. Apparently she’s been training with the Courage and was expected to make her return to the pitch post-Olympics, now it turns out it might maybe likely probably be at the Olympics instead.

The main question left is how ready is Kerolin for match action? Because when she’s at her best, she’s literally an MVP.

Taking a ton of touches and hitting a whole lotta shots in the box and being impossible to mark 1v1 is how a non-striker managed to be a consistent goalscorer in the NWSL. She’s unlikely to be back to her best form after not playing a single minute of competitive football this year, but what a hell of a spark to call on to shift a tight match in Brazil’s favor.

Marta

That’s right, it’s 2024 and we’re still talking about Marta at a major international tournament because we are so blessed. Although, Marta has claimed this will be her last with the national team. Now, I’m not one to call the GOAT a liar, but Brazil is hosting the 2027 World Cup and my brain tells me that there’s just no way Marta won’t be stepping onto the pitch, kitted up, prepared to ball. She’d be in her 40s, but also, and most crucially—so?

Anyway, if it is her last, she’s entering the tournament in a bit of a renaissance. She’s stuck with Orlando and now they have the most well-balanced team in the NWSL and top the table. They’ve been able to solidify pieces around their key attacking players so they can cook without fear, and that’s a dangerous combination for the best to ever do it.

So far this season Marta is averaging 1.99 key passes—passes leading directly to a shot—per 90, which is just .04 behind 22-year-old USWNT star Trinity Rodman.

key question
what exactly are you up to?

This question is mainly about head coach Arthur Elias being a wild boi with his callups. Sometimes he swings wildly in the direction of a total youth overhaul, and the next camp he’s hanging welcome back banners as longtime vets don the yellow and green once again.

While I, for one, respect it, it’s maybe not the most coherent strategy for working toward an identifiable and effective style of play reliant on building relationships between a core set of players. To be fair, his teams have looked capable of more fun than former coach Pia Sundhage’s (even though they did this at the World Cup), but I have no idea what to expect from them at this tournament.

I’m hoping they can provide some fun answers as to the team they’re going to be in the future. Building toward the 2027 starts now, and being able to elevate the team ahead of the tournament will be a necessary step in maximizing a home World Cup.

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