When Messiah Bright was traded from Orlando Pride to Angel City it seemed a perfect fit and solution. We didn’t know at the time but Barbra Banda was headed to the Pride, which would have severely limited her minutes, and Angel City could have several immediate uses for a young, dynamic central striker who narrowly missed out on rookie of the year (tbh she got my vote). Clouds rolled away, heavens opened, angels sang and woodland creatures rejoiced, this seemed a perfect fit.
Since starting 16 of 22 matches for Orlando and scoring six goals as a rookie (last year’s golden boot winner scored 11), Becki Tweed has started Bright just once, and has played her a total of just 258 minutes. Unsurprisingly given the lack of opportunity, she’s yet to score a goal in 2024.
This all leads to a classic but fundamental scientific question: what the fuck?
Trending extremely badly
Making sense of Tweed’s inability to put Bright on the pitch is confusing for several reasons. The primary one is the attack itself. If Angel City had been cookin in attack one could say ‘damn, sometimes it be like that.’ This is not what’s happening, in fact, Angel City are the fourth lowest team in terms of expect goals per 90 (.99), only above Seattle, Houston and last place Utah.
Seasons are long and sometimes something that is true today won’t necessarily be true in a week, a month, or the end of the season. But uh, this trendline is the most not ideal.
A string of strong opponents can sometimes impact the data, but in their last five matches Angel City have faced more teams out of the playoff picture (Utah, Houston and San Diego Wave) than in.
What’s really going on
A constant theme of Angel City’s struggles in attack has been getting the midfield to support the attack. This has caused starting forward Sydney Leroux to have to be in two places at once – the center circle, and inside the box. As good as Leroux is, and as much as she’s trying to make it work, the physical laws of our natural world.
As a result, every pass network from Angel City looks like this…
In the end what Tweed has produced is an attack that doesn’t produce open play shots (3rd fewest), clear shots (2nd fewest), shots from high pressure (3rd fewest) or counterattacking shots (5th fewest), in favor of crossing the ball into the box the most by average (36% box crosses percentage per 90) and at a slightly above average success rate (25%).
There’s a lot of complexity to this sport but sometimes the problems a team may be having are quite straightforward. Angel City attack down the wings and only register the fourth most deep progressions (32.45 passes, dribbles or carries into the final third; 36.4 league average), but they hit the most crosses by percentage and complete an average amount. The seemingly good news then is that their central striker is winning the third most aerial duels in the league per 90 (4.22, minimum 600 mins).
There’s just one small problem…
Those aerial duels are mostly in midfield, which ok fine, but Leroux has both attempted and won more headers defending her own box than attacking in the opposition’s. This would explain why midfielder Rocky Rodriguez averages more shots pers 90 (1.14) than Leroux (1.08).
That’s a symptom of a broken attack, and Tweed not being able to fix it with the personnel she’s placing on the pitch.
Enter the Messiah
Right now whoever Becki Tweed is entrusting to function as an attacking midfielder isn’t working. Clarisse Le Bihan has attempted just 53 passes between the width of the box in the Angel City’s attacking half, and completed just 29. Kennedy Fuller is a young and exciting talent, but she’s struggling even more, attempting 44 and completing 24.
Carries are a similar story. Fuller is more adept at carrying the ball than LeBihan, whose carry map suggests the box is lava, but neither do it with enough regularity or incisive decision making to be consistently dangerous.
Basically, a central attacking midfielder isn’t doing the team much good, particularly with the style of attack Tweed is relying on. Therefore, I see it as an opportunity to go back to her Bristol roots, ditch the central attacking midfielder, and go 442. Or, more accurately, 4411 to make sure there’s a consistent backline and/or box presence – and Messiah Bright could be key to it all.
Bright’s primary strength last season was dribbling and carrying the ball forward, which she did to great effect. The only striker to attempt more dribbles and average more successful dribbles per 90 was Sophia Smith. When broken down by percentages, Smith’s 36% success rate is dwarfed by Bright’s 50%.
Remember Le Bihan and Fuller’s carry maps in the opposition half just a bit ago? Here’s Bright’s from last season with Orlando.
The thing that also stands out is the length of Bright’s carries. Among all strikers her carries averaged the fourth longest distance at just over eight yards per carry. In addition to her dibbling and carries, Bright also tied with (MVP snub imo) Adriana for the most goals scored on the team.
In her first season in a league that doesn’t feature too many consistent non-penalty goalscorers, Bright scored six goals from 4.8 xG, and all came from open play except for one that was nodded in from a corner.
Keep in mind that the golden boot winner last year was Sophia Smith, who scored eleven including one penalty. While Bright’s shot map shows room for improvement in her shot selection, 19 of her 43 shots were the end product of dribbles and crosses that she turned into a total of 2.51 xG and three goals. The way Angel City is already attempting to attack could play into the hands of a strength Bright showed her rookie year.
The idea of replacing a central attacking midfielder with Bright in a center forward + striker partnership with Sydney Leroux could be a somewhat unconventional solution to Angel City’s attacking problems. It solves the expectation of Leroux to be in two places at once, and provides central threats that’d require defensive attention, which could free space in wide areas to increase the team’s number of deep progressions.
Presumably Angel City traded to acquire Messiah Bright for a reason. Her not playing is an impediment to her career and a wasted opportunity despite the seemingly perfect fit. Tweed may not see this as the perfect solution, but it’s the best one she’s yet to try, if only by default. And right now, given the trajectory of the team, there’s no reason to stick with any plan that doesn’t include Messiah Bright.
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