After a seven game stretch with one win, one draw, five losses and just two goals scored, the North Carolina Courage and their supporters needed good news. Thankfully the team indulged in a bit of self-care and secured the signing of Australia’s star winger Cortnee Vine, who will join the team when the NWSL summer transfer window opens August 1.
Vine is a fast and fun winger who authored Australia’s second most iconic moment at the 2023 World Cup, coolly scoring a penalty that gave them a shootout win over France. After the tournament many expected Vine to ride the wave of becoming a household name to snag a bag and continue her career elsewhere. She didn’t, and instead stayed at Sydney FC in Australia’s A-League Women, the league where she made her pro debut at 16.
A bag deferred is not a bag denied, and now she’s headed to the North Carolina Courage, who desperately need a spark in their attack.
Courage can’t find the ‘score goals’ button
Over the past couple seasons North Carolina had been known as one of the most fun attacking teams in the league, but have suddenly stalled. Kerolin tearing her ACL last year is a major reason, but the Courage still have fun players, and added Ashley Sanchez in the offseason. During this poor run though, none of that has mattered and goals have dried up.
In 2022 the Courage scored the second most goals in the NWSL regular season, in 2023 they tied for fifth, but so far in 2024 they have the worst goal tally among playoff teams, and have scored the same amount as Seattle Reign – who sit 13th in a fourteen team league.
In addition to losing Kerolin, whose 10g/3a accounted for ~45% of their total in 2023, part of the scoring woes are a lack of a central attacking threat. Kerolin certainly didn’t play as a striker, but she had a similar impact with her goalscoring. Of her eight non-penalty goals last season, all but one was scored inside the box. Further to the point, all but two were scored in the box and within the width of the six-yard box.
While only one was near/in the six-yard area, anytime you’re consistently shooting and scoring near the penalty spot defenses hate that shit, and the constant threat impacts games in your favor. In open play Kerolin scored eight goals from 4.53 xG (team scored 27 from 25.53 xG), so far this season the Courage have scored ten goals from 12.55 xG – and the underperformance is costing them points, and potentially playoff positioning.
North Carolina like keeping possession and moving the ball quickly in buildup to wide areas before crossing. They’re second in the league with a 33% box cross percentage per 90 (percent of passes into the box that are crosses), and first with 2.92 successful box crosses. But with no consistent central threat, the crossing hasn’t led to reliable goalscoring, or even shots.
The Courage’s 11.54 shots per 90 is fifth worst in the league. That on its own is not great, and when contrasted against how much of the ball they see in a given match – leading the league averaging 58% – it’s even worse. Also their .11 xG per shot is tied for highest in the league with Kansas City, who lead the league by a massive margin with 1.95 open play xG per 90, and Chicago who take the second fewest shots in the league and have Mallory Swanson.
All this suggests that when North Carolina finally shoot it’s typically a quality chance, but the chances are infrequent and they aren’t putting them in the dang goal.
What does Vine do that might help
What’s made Vine so effective and fun to watch in the A-League is her speed and directness. She hates a scenic route, sees no use for them. Trees and mountains, whatever, she can Google those in her spare time. I’m exaggerating but not by much, numbers from FBref back me up.
Last A-League season Vine was second overall with 4.96 shot creating actions per 90. First place, Mackenzie Hawkesby, used 35 dead ball passes (set pieces) to get there, while Vine didn’t have any. She was also third in the league in progressive carries with 75 in fourteen starts and eighteen games played. FBref defines progressive carries as ‘carries that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least ten yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any carry into the penalty area’. I included that lengthy technical explanation just for the last bit, because Vine is second in total carries into the penalty area, with 48, seven from the top spot and eleven above third.
With that, we can take a look at some things from her highlight reel to see how these attributes manifest on the pitch, and lead to highly productive goal creation for a right winger. Last year she scored 10 goals on an even 8.0 xG, and dished six assists.
The main thing that jumps out is Vine’s speed, but her recognition is excellent too. When runs are timed in sync with teammates and from spaces that isolate or blindside a defender, speed is an even more dangerous weapon. Last season she was eighth overall with 3.43 shots per 90, and sixth with 1.72 shots on target per 90.
Vine also has solid finishing instincts and a decent variety of finishes to maximize shooting opportunities. One of my favorite finishes was this glancing outside of the boot touch to redirect the ball in front of the keeper.
Can she fix them
Well, not really. The Courage are sliding down the table and clinging onto the 7th (of 8) playoff spot by a point. Getting Kerolin back would help, but even if she returns this season it wouldn’t be fair to saddle her with the burden of goalscoring. Somehow the Courage need to find a way to increase their goal output and find someone to attack, and score, in central spaces.
All their passing patterns and rotations have been just as good and effective as previous years, they’re just missing the ‘ball go in goal’ bit, which is hardest to fix. Vine is quicker and more direct than players the Courage are currently relying on in wide areas, and she’s also stepped up her assist numbers, dropping 14 over the last two seasons (36 games, 32 starts).
The one caveat is that, unlike Kerolin, Vine will be reliant on service and connections with teammates to make a difference, as her 1v1 take on numbers aren’t impressive. She managed just a 44% success rate (35 of 79) with her dribbles last season, the lowest percentage of anyone with 30+ successful dribbles.
But if she can get on the same page with teammates quickly she’ll offer a different, direct threat that should give the Courage a sharper point to their attacks. While Vine shouldn’t be viewed as the solution to their goalscoring problems, she can make the math more favorable, and North Carolina’s attack needs whatever help it can get.
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