nwsl week 24: xG race charts & pass networks

We’re so close to the end of the NWSL regular season and some teams look like they will be super relieved to no longer be playing soccer game again while others are hoopin. Thing is, you would think the groupings would be ‘playoff teams are trying to rev close to their peak’ while ‘non-playoff teams want the offseason to step back and reassess.’ However, this is extremely far from the case lol.

Some playoff teams look exhausted and weird, while some clubs far outside the playoff spots look like they want another ten games. Anywhomst, Orlando (maybe, probably….hopefully?) partied too hard and Portland took advantage, I’m not mad I’m disappointed in Chicago, but straight up mad at Seattle. The Spirit absolutely wrecked a disorganized Rahsing side, and Gotham may have scared Bay back into bad habits.

Here’s what it all looked like according to StatsBomb’s xG race charts and passing networks.

portland thorns 2-0 orlando pride

Amazing. Incredible. Hilarious. Perfect NWSL’ing.

Of course the team three games away from completing an improbable invincible run lost to the team that hadn’t won a regular season game since July 5th. The caveat is that Orlando won the NWSL Shield the week prior and promptly celebrated, as they very much should have.

I’m not making any accusations about how hard they celebrated or what they did (tbh idc, they earned it), but three first half shots against one of the most porous defenses in the league is one of those ‘tell me you’re all hungover without telling me you’re all hungover’ things lol.

thorns

You know how sometimes all a struggling team needs is a stroke of good luck, or a gritty grind-it-out performance that flips the narrative and provides a motivational boost that propels them out of their rut? Yeah I don’t think this will be that lol.

The midfield is still weird and not properly constructed in terms of personnel, and that’s not something you can change at this point of the season. The defense is still untrustworthy, it looks like Morgan Weaver may be out again after having to be subbed off in the 63rd minute, and I’m still unconvinced that Coach Ken was, or is, the right hire.

Sophia Smith could come back for the playoffs, and that will always give them a chance, but with GM Karina LeBlanc yeeting herself, these sorts of problems are the type that can only be addressed in an offseason. Suddenly, one the Thorns have to get very right.

pride

Play hard, party hard. I’m fine with it.

chicago red stars 0-2 nj/ny gotham fc

Yes that is correct, eleven Chicago Red Stars chased a ball around a pitch for 90+ minutes and only managed two shots (both from Mallory Swanson). Gotham are very good and organized, but this is awful from Chicago. That Gotham got their goals in the 87th and 98th minutes is not a win or a sign that this horrendous gameplan worked.

Gotham missed two excellent chances in the first fifteen minutes (.52 and .24), and consistently found spaces to be dangerous, that they weren’t cruising by halftime was only a matter of luck and some poor decision making and execution in the final third.

red stars

I’m not mad I’m just disappointed. I know what to expect week to week, but I remain saddened that this is it, this is the goal every weekend. It’s uninspiring, and as we’ve seen in this NWSL, is unlikely to be sustainable.

gotham

If Chicago is just gonna give you the ball then it’s up to you to cook with it, and for the most part Gotham did. They seemed to put an emphasis on getting Jenna Nighswonger the ball in space on the left, and she had three of their eight first half shots. I don’t hate it, especially if she’s gonna consistently find space, but her -.06 pass OBV suggests better decisions and/or execution was needed.

nc courage 1-1 angel city fc

Olivia Wingate just might win the NWSL Hater of the Year award.

After Angel City had the first shot of the game in the 7th minute, the Courage didn’t allow another from them until the 70th. They also peppered ACFC’s goal with nine shots in that span, but it remained 0-0 until the goat, the gawd, and one of the best shooters this gods have ever produced, Christen Press, scored her first goal since returning from injury in the 97th minute.

Then, in true 2024 Angel City fashion, they threw it all away by letting Wingate get behind them in the 100th minute for an equalizer. It’s rare when a team encapsulates so many of their problems in a handful of seconds, but thanks for the CliffsNotes I guess.

courage

North Carolina at home straight up might be one of the best teams in the league. They haven’t lost at home this season, have won nine, and this was only their third draw. If they could come close to this form on the road the NWSL Shield race might still be alive.

acfc

This is an impressive Chicago Red Stars impression (derogatory).

bay fc 0-1 kc current

The prior week’s dismantling at the hands of Gotham seemed to put Bay back in their shell. In this game they reverted back to old habits, had nearly 60% of the ball, created nothing, still conceded double digit shots, and lost. Without Kundananji, Bay were poor in attack and only created one shot of above average value, which Penelope Hocking missed.

bay

Yeah. I don’t like it. All that possession and passing and only four of the starting XI had a positive pass OBV, and three of those are defenders. I’m still not seeing whatever Bay saw in Penelope Hocking that made them drop $350k. A midfielder who can link forward play would’ve been a more useful addition.

There probs aren’t a ton of those available and eager to join an expansion team, but they clearly had money leftover to try and make something happen. And hell, Mina Tanaka, Cloé Lacasse and Claudia Zornoza all chose to move to Utah this summer.

current

This was a weird performance from Kansas City, especially given Bay’s approach. They created three very good chances, but missed them all. It wasn’t until Temwa went god mode and decided to score her record breaking 19th with an outside of the box shot that was just .04 xG—and it was the Current’s only goal. Your six-month old nephew’s Kansas City Current would’ve put up a crooked number.

utah royals 3-0 seattle reign

Wish I could say ‘I’m not mad, I’m disappointed’ again but no actually I’m mad this time lol. There is no reason for Seattle Reign to be this bad or play this poorly. They made good, inspiring summer moves and had a visible path to the playoffs. Nowhere along that path were ‘Lose to the Houston Dash’ and ‘Give Up a First Half Hat Trick to Cloé Lacasse.’

Angharad James-Turner’s red card in the 16th minute put the team in a deep hole, but we’ve seen teams adapt and play quickly on the counter to keep numbers in defense while maintaining a threat going forward. Instead Laura Harvey seemed to say meh, and didn’t make a sub of any kind until the match was well out of reach and more than an hour had been played.

royals

When you’re up a player, keep the ball moving, play forward and counterpress hard to win it back. Especially if your opponent isn’t gonna play anyone you have to worry about getting behind your backline.

reign

Shoutout to Hanna Glas for trying.

washington spirit 4-1 rahsing louisville

Heavens. The penalty helps, those are .78 xG, but this is still an absolute wrecking from a shorthanded Spirits side. The XI featured no Trinity Rodman, no Casey Krueger, no Andi Sullivan, no Croix Bethune, no Leicy Santos and no Ouleye Sarr—and yet!

Washington outshot Lewuvuh 14-4 in the first half, scoring their two biggest chances (.27 & .89), but also missed shots of .14, .22, .16 and two .12. The second half was more even, with Balcer missing a .28 chance in the 47th, but then the Spirit won and scored a penalty in the 56th minute. Emma Sears, who should be more than a super sub, came on and scored and changed the dynamic a bit, until the Spirit added a fourth with one of the last kicks of the game.

spirit

When the Spirit drafted Hal Hershfelt and Makenna Morris I was delighted that they had watched as much Clemson as I had lol. With Andi, I wasn’t sure what role Hal would play, but they turned her into a space-covering machine whose instincts and tidiness on the ball are perfect for a team that wants to win and keep possession. In this game she was able to play her more familiar lone 6 role, and it worked in this game.

The negative pass OBV has a lot to do with Hershfelt passing backwards, which is understandable given the on-ball creators that were missing. But since this seems like it will be her new job for the foreseeable future, finding ways to connect forward passes is going to be a must. She was pretty good at it with Clemson as well, so we’ll see.

It also helped everyone that Morris, who led Clemson in goals from right back, dropped a brace. Go Tigers.

rahsing

I remain confused about Bev Yanez’s direction in terms of tactics and personnel. Savannah DeMelo did not start this game, and neither did Emma Sears. The result was her team being pinned quite deep and looking confused and uncertain out of possession, and without an outlet in possession. For a team that needs points, I personally would not do several of these things.

san diego wavé 0-2 houston dash

Lol I swear, for several reasons which aren’t the fault of the players, San Diego is cursed. Giving up a penalty in the 30th minute didn’t help, and neither did conceding a second, but San Diego had twenty shots and didn’t score. This is happening a lot. And part of it is the quality of shots, out of the 20, only four were at or above average in xG value (.10).

Landon Donovan’s San Diego Wavé are much more fun, open and shooty than Casey Stoney’s version, but not much more effective at getting the ball to go into the net.

wavé

Since Landon Donovan took over, the Wavé rank third highest in shots per 90 with 14.63, but are averaging exactly 1.0 goals/90, fifth lowest in the league. Another part of the problem is that in this span they are third lowest in clear shots (1.13/90), which StatsBomb defines as ‘shots generated when only the opponent's goalkeeper was in between shot-taker and goal.’

Some of that is decision making, some of that is maybe a coach not being experienced enough to help them find the additional movements or passes that help players more frequently bypass congested shots for cleaner looks.

dash

Genuinely hilarious. No notes. Sometimes soccer is gonna soccer and the worst team in the league will benefit. Congrats?

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