nwsl week 19: xG race charts & pass networks

Week 19 in the NWSL was a tense one in which only one game was decided by more than one goal. This league is intense, and it’s gonna get even more #intenserer with five teams fighting for two playoff spots with just seven regular season games to go.

Of those teams, Chicago are tumbling down the table, Bay have made a significant shift in the way they play, the Reign are starting to find ways to win, Angel City gotta figure things out fast, and I dunno what Rahsing are up to but I don’t like it. Also, the Spirit might have a finishing problem, and Landon Donovan’s San Diego Wavé lost to Bristol City in Alex Morgan’s final professional match. A few teams took Ls, but the biggest one belong to Jill Ellis, who singlehandedly tanked her team’s playoff chances.

Here’s what it all looked like according to StatsBomb’s xG race charts and passing networks.

angel city 2-3 seattle reign

VAR’s diva ass saw some #NWSLAfterDark about to happen and decided to get in the way. It was argued to me that maybe that was all part of the After Dark Experience™, but I would have preferred the goals instead. Anyway, the penalty inflates Seattle’s xG quite a bit, the non-penalty matchup is 1.49 to Angel City’s 1.20, which is better for Team Disney. But this is a direct rival missing one of their biggest summer signings, and another who didn’t step on the pitch until 90+2.

acfc

Is it good when only your goalkeeper, left back and one of your center backs has positive pas OBV? No, I would say that it is not. I liked the feel of things with Zelem sitting deeper and dictating play, but I think the midfield combination ahead of her didn’t spark much creativity. Positive news is that with Alyssa Thompson back doing Alyssa Thompson things, it was then time to get M.A. Vignola back doing M.A. Vignola things. She cooked this game.

reign

Of the 33-year-old Swiss internationals to enter the leagues this season, Ana Maria Crnogorčević is better than Ramona Bachmann, but I didn’t really expect this. She’s played in this league before, but literally half a decade ago. She’s been pretty much plug & play, and quite useful to the Reign’s attack.

However, she’s still 33 and more capable utility player than excellent [insert one of the many positions she has played], which probably means Seattle won’t hit their highest ceiling with her as their best attacking player. One day Mondésir should be that player, and though the Reign are sneaking results, that day can’t come soon enough if they are to genuinely get into the scrap for the final two playoff spots.

washington spirit 2-1 portland thorns

The Fighting Sophia Smith’s nearly pulled off a decent-sized upset given the trajectory of the two clubs but you’ll never guess the unit that fumbled all the points away. In truth, the Spirit miiiiiight need to be a bit big mad about how poor their finishing has been recently. Putting up 2.94 non-penalty xG is absurd, and while I feel sorry for Ashley Hatch and those who feel aggrieved on her behalf given her sporadic starts, she had two chances of .50 xG or higher and missed them both.

She wasn’t the only player to miss big chances, the Spirit also wasted xG shots of .18, two .20, .22, and .39. Having Trinity Rodman is great, but if she doesn’t come on for an injured Sarr before she was supposed to and drop a goal and an assist, this game ends as a pretty demoralizing L.

spirit

I was surprised at the lineup as well, with Casey Krueger, Hal Hershfelt and Trinity Rodman all on the bench. Pain caves, thanks Emma. Anyway, after the early scare the Spirit settled and dominated until the 40th minute, but didn’t score. Portland’s early goal in the second half made things even more dire, but then Rodman did Rodman things. Good teams need to find a way to win these sorts of games, but better teams finish chances so they don’t have them in the first place. That’s where the Spirit need to be.

thorns

More or less things used to always work out when play would run through Sam Coffey at the base of midfield but for some reason Coach Ken has decided to do away with that. This is possibly to turn Coffey into more of a destroyer rather than all-around distributor to protect the defense, but that’s not entirely her game. He dropped Hina Sugita deeper to help, but it’s not the best use of her skills either, and her goal pretty much tells you exactly what she’s good at and why.

With Coffey and Sugita essentially holding hands with both central defenders, the rest of the team was compressed. Sophia Smith nearly saves them every week, and did her damnedest in this game, but she also clearly seemed to not be fully recovered from the pain cave either. Like the Spirit, it would really help out if both teams could find a way to manage for a couple weeks without being dependent on their superstar forwards, who are clearly exhausted.

kc current 1-0 utah royals

Cannot believe I am about to type these words with complete sincerity in 2024 but this was an extremely even match between the Kansas City Current and Utah Royals. In fact, the Royals should be pretty frustrated that they didn’t come away with at least a point, and maybe all three. Temwa Chawinga scored the Current’s best chance (.40), but Utah missed shots of .53, .57 and .22.

current

Sure, the Current stopped their losing streak but all is not fixed or settled. Sometimes it doesn’t matter how you break out of a slump, so maybe this is that, but I still have concerns. The production they were getting from midfield early in the season is pretty much gone. It’s kinda wild to say, but they truly are missing their 18-year-old defensive midfielder who’s currently at the U20 World Cup in Colombia.

royals

Less surprisingly, Utah seem to be missing 20-year-old Ally Sentnor who’s at the U20 World Cup as well. Even before the tournament Utah has heavily reliant on her for pretty much any creativity and goalscoring in the attacking half. Their summer signings have made them much better and more balanced, but it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t have found their goal if Sentnor was out there.

bay fc 1-0 rahsing louisville

I continue to not like what Louisville’s player movement did to the team on the pitch. Maybe it will come together, but they created just two above average shots (.11 & .38) and scored neither. Bay had a similar issue (missing .13, .14, .12, and .17), until they didn’t (Oshoala, .24).

bay

Not gonna lie, I thought Abby Dahlkemper would improve the team but not by this much. So far her defensive instincts and passing range is allowing the team to control matches in the way head coach Albertin Montoya wants. They’ve made other tweaks too, like adding a lot more vertical threat to their passing.

According to StatsBomb, Bay’s pace towards goal (average speed of buildup for possessions that end in shots, measured in meters per second) before adding Dahlkemper was last in the league (1.9). It’s a small sample size of course, but since she came into the starting XI they’ve been well above the league average of 2.39, and sit third overall at 2.83.

rahsing

I don’t like it. Yes they were missing Savannah DeMelo due to yellow card accumulation, but this is not abnormal since their moves this summer. Not much effective forward passing from midfield, and Balcer dropping super deep to find service. No disrespect to Lauren Milliet, but a defense probably feels like it’s done its job if she’s Louisville’s highest rated passer.

nj/ny gotham 2-1 houston dash

Gotham came so close to getting Tarciane’d, but then the worst case scenarios for Houston happened—she went out, and Lynn Williams came in. Gotham scored within five minutes. A shame really, the Brazilian center back was approaching peak ‘gonna tell my grandkids about The Tarciane Game’ territory.

gotham

After scoring in the tenth minute this seemed like a match Gotham would comfortable win. Then the Dash equalized seven minutes after and Gotham found themselves in an good old fashioned brouhaha. A donnybrook, if you will. A ruckus if you won’t.

Thanks to a lack of transparency on all things salary and salary cap, we have no idea how Gotham keep signing 60% of all available players, but games like this show how necessary it is to have high quality depth. While Houston was subbing on Allysha Chapman and Havana Solaun, Gotham added Lynn Williams and Jéssica Silva.

dash

Houston aren’t good, and with transfer and trade windows closed, aren’t going to get much better. They do have a couple talents that can affect games in other ways, and one of them is Tarciane, who got in Gotham’s heads until she was forced to sub out with a shoulder injury. Avery Patterson looks legit and never stops running around the pitch, but often seems to be moving at a pace other attackers can’t keep up with.

It’s hard to even analyze Houston properly because so much of what’s happening on the pitch is a reflection of dysfunction outside of it. From no one knowing where actual head coach Fran Alonso has been—for months!!—and the Dash refusing to comment, to a fired GM without a replacement, and no real direction and no one above them pushing for answers or forcing accountability. It’s a mess and it’s a shame, there’s a solid base to build on here, and with smart decisions and recruitment they could have avoided tumbling to the bottom of the table. The players and supporters deserve better than the mess multiple people have made of that club over the years.

chicago red stars 0-1 orlando pride

The Red Stars had three shots that registered any xG at all, a .08 and .03 from free kicks, and just one from open play that was just .03. In this NWSL that simply will not do. They frustrated Orlando for decent chunks of the match, but while there is only one Marta, every playoff team and some non-playoff teams have a player who can do a madness at any time. This strictly defensive gameplan is not sustainable and need to change asaptualistically.

red stars

After hanging out in the middle of the playoff positions most of the season Chicago have now tumbled to the last playoff spot, and within striking distance of Angel City. Losing Staab took away the vast majority of their ability to progress the ball, but that is a statement in itself.

Donaldson is a defensive minded coach, but it can’t be this. It can never be this.

pride

This was honestly the kind of performance that maybe should have cost the Pride some points. They didn’t play horribly, but struggled to create above average shots. The defense was solid and resolute, but things in attack weren’t firing the way we’re used to seeing.

Still, one of the most difficult things about the Pride is that while they are deeply talented, very well balanced so there aren’t massive weaknesses to exploit, and well coached, they also have the kind of players who can pop out and show something at any point. Marta did, they won, and got another three points. This team is scary.

san diego wavé 1-4 nc courage

At first glance it may look like San Diego was right there and this was just one of those games. It was not. San Diego’s non-penalty xG was only .65, and the penalty by Alex Morgan in her final professional match was saved. Father Time is a bastard.

Anyway, things aren’t looking good for Jill Ellis or Landon Donovan. Mind you, this was a big emotional celebration against North Carolina Away, who have essentially been Bristol City whenever they leave WakeMed Soccer Park.

wavé

Under Casey Stoney the Wavé never had a stretch where they picked up just one point in five games, or conceded eleven goals across five games. Their previous high was eight. This isn’t some unfortunate anomaly either, their xG conceded across these five games is 10.79. They were one point away from the playoff line when Jill Ellis yeeted Stoney, now they’re twelfth with a -9 goal difference and seven points away from eighth.

Whatever Jill Ellis thought she was doing, she failed. Miserably.

courage

Beating Landon Donovan’s San Diego Wavé away doesn’t necessarily mean the Courage have solved their road problems. In fact judging from this pass network they most certainly have not lol.

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