nwsl week 18: xG race charts & pass networks

Week 18 was a hilarious and cruel one from the soccer gods. Yes, I talk about them a lot, and I am sorry about that but they were cookin this weekend. We had a Laura Harvey Hatty, one player scoring both goals in a 1-1 game despite one team hitting 1.78 xG, and Orlando getting two goals from sub-1.0 xG while held Gotham to 0 from a similar number.

See? I told you, they cooked. Here’s what it all looked like according to StatsBomb’s xG race charts and passing networks.

thorns 1-3 bay fc

Portland’s defense remains a problem. Goalkeeper Shelby Hogan was one of the handful of keepers with negative goals saved above average (GSAA), so addressing that was smart, even if Mackenzie Arnold isn’t the most solid of keepers herself. They missed the chance to change it with personnel, so now it’s on Coach Ken to figure it out.

thorns

Bay tend to leave a lot of space to exploit in transition but not when you jumble players together in the center circle. Alexa Spaanstra did some good things, but this is a game where the Thorns missed Janine Beckie’s directness. Against a team now known for its defensive or midfield prowess, it’s quite shocking that Portland wasn’t able to get just five starting outfield players into positive pass OBV, and no one over .07 (and none of them were Sam Coffey).

bay

This was a win Bay definitely needed but is probably a bit of fool’s gold given how porous Portland’s defense and goalkeeping have been. And honestly I don’t even know how this worked against the Thorns. That giant hole between central defense and midfield should have been prime Sophia-Smith-Will-Haunt-Your-Every-Waking-Moment territory, but Bay somehow got away with it.

rahsing louisville 2-3 seattle reign

Last week it was the Spirit getting a bunch of goals from under 1.0 xG, this week it was apparently Seattle’s turn. Even funnier is that one was a penalty (.78 xG), one was a free kick banger (.08), and the third an own goal (.01). Might dub this the Laura Harvey Hatty (get well soon coach).

rahsing

I don’t really like the way Louisville have been setting up since their trades. Uchenna Kanu is getting a lot more playing time, which is something that should have happened earlier, but Emma Sears has dropped to the bench so they can continue to include Savannah DeMelo in the XI—and it’s not really working.

Their most dangerous players aren’t getting enough of the ball, and while Marisa DiGrande does a lot of good off ball work, on the ball there’s not much happening. She had twenty-two passes and the lowest—not just low, but negative—pass OBV among the starting XI (-.06). I’d like to see this with DeMelo back in midfield and Sears back on the right wing.

reign

Shoutout to Shae Holmes, who somehow managed to put up .15 pass OBV in a match where they created just one low quality chance from open play (.01 xG) all game. I’ll of course be hoping for better once Nérilia Mondésir can start and Jaelin Howell is better embedded into the system.

houston dash 1-3 utah royals

It took several months for Utah to crack the code but they finally have and the complex cipher has revealed a simple yet effective message: Signing Good Players Is Good.

dash

Since Houston are struggling with the code on their own maybe they should just copy Utah’s homework.

royals

This is a bit chaotic but there are still strong connections and players have high pass OBV from areas you want to be able to effectively attack defenses. Not coincidentally, the two players in bright red near the center circle are new signings Claudia Zornoza and Mina Tanaka.

nc courage 2-1 kc current

This is the second game in a row where the Current have won the xG battle convincingly but conceded more goals and lost the game. The Soccer Gods seem to be playing a cruel trick on them and I’m not sure why. It’s also none of my business. They know what they did. That’s between them and the gods.

courage

Considering the Courage are Barcelona at home and Bristol City away, this was not the game or pass network I expected from a game at WakeMed Soccer Park. The right side cooked a little bit—though more hot plate than Top Chef—while the rest of the squad struggled.

current

Eeps. Though this is not necessarily bad for the way Kansas City play. They get the ball forward quickly and don’t waste time creating chances once the ball is in a dangerous area.

I like Ellie Wheeler as a player but the Current often used Izzy Rodriguez as the player who would dictate play the way a midfielder would. Her variety of passing along the flank helped keep their attack unpredictable. With Wheeler, it’s not hitting the same—yet.

angel city 2-1 chicago red stars

I am currently very worried for the Chicago Red Stars. They’ve slipped to 7th on the table, just two points above Bay FC, and now with this result, Angel City too.

acfc

It’s not great when just two players in the opposition’s half have a positive pass OBV. If you spend enough time there you really should be more effective at testing the defense.

Chicago are good at mucking things up and absorbing pressure, but Angel City have the talent to make their lives easier than this. Things should get a little more straightforward for ACFC once Katie Zelem is able to start.

red stars

Head coach Lorne Donaldson is continuing to tweak his midfield, this time dropping Leilanni Nesbeth and placing Cari Roccaro alongside Bea Franklin and the recently signed Julia Grosso. Unfortunately it didn’t work. This is kinda what happens when you hand over most of your key ball progression duties to a center back (Sam Staab) and then that center back ruptures their Achilles (I hate it!).

I’m very sad for Staab, but the Red Stars must find other ways of progressing the ball that aren’t totally reliant on defenders. There’s a reason Staab is one-of-one. It’s time to go forward and take more risks, especially once Mal Swanson and Ludmila can be on the pitch together.

orlando pride 2-0 nj/ny gotham

Honestly if the Orlando Pride are going to do this to a champion and top-4 club full of USWNT talent maybe we should just give them the NWSL Shield now lol.

pride

This match should have looked a lot more difficult than it did. A quick brace from Adriana allowed them the flexibility to keep Gotham off balance, but Gotham are a monster of a team with a bunch of players who are just as capable of answering back with a rapid fire brace of their own. They just weren’t allowed to.

The Pride defended well, and of course still maintained a threat through Barbra Banda at the other end. This looked comfortable. Too comfortable. Eerily comfortable. Sorry not sorry to the rest of the league comfortable.

gotham

Gotham huffed and puffed and threw players forward but couldn’t find the right combo of passes to create the quality of shots we’re used to seeing from them. They sit right just below the league average (.10) with .09 xG per shot, which is usually fine considering the finishers they have in the squad. Orlando absorbed sixteen shots, but were able to cut Gotham’s xG per shot damn near in half, to .055.

san diego wavé 1-1 washington spirit

The Soccer Gods giveth, and taketh away, and whomst are we to judge? Last week against Kansas City the Spirit dropped four goals on .52 xG. This week they hit 1.78 total xG and didn’t score a single goal of their own. (McNabb’s own goal registers as xG, but was .01.)

wavé

Not a lot going forward but the Wavé were very effective at simply being in the way. Some of it was not having to deal with Croix Bethune’s unpredictability, but a lot of it was Naomi Girma. On the ball there wasn’t much from San Diego, and in the end they did the smart thing by capitalizing on a set piece opportunity. The combo of dogged defense and maximizing set piece opportunities sounds familiar in San Diego. Interesting. Wonder why that could be.

spirit

No real question about where the Spirit want to attack: straight down your mf’n throat. Rodman’s positioning is a bit of a lie since she just swapped sides and this is what happens when you do that. But she and Kouassi were inverting a lot to get closer to Sarr. Leicy Santos also struggled to find effective forward passes. Her 43 passes were second most among the starters, but she only managed .03 pass OBV. Meanwhile, Rodman hit .61 and Metayer dropped a .28.

Finishing was definitely lacking and on another day the Spirit win this match by a goal or two. But the Spirit also missed the clever passes from Croix that make finishing a bit easier, which will be Santos’ job if Bethune is out long-term.

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