The Spirit escaped being upset, but it took a penalty shootout that Rahsing Louisville was a lot less prepared for. Portland have shifted their focus in the late stage of the regular season, and it quieted San Diego’s key attackers until Olivia Moultrie could do an Olivia Moultrie thing. This matchup will be of two teams who are quite different versions of themselves, but have started figuring out how to lean into their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses.

If you’ve ever heard a nerd refer to a team’s underlying numbers, the majority of the time they’re talking about expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA). Results can be weird, especially early in a season, so one way of assessing whether a team is doing better or worse than their results is to check the per-game underlying numbers.

When we get to the end of a season, all that data can provide a clearer overall look at a team’s ability to generate shots, as well as their ability to manage shots against them. However, since the NWSL season is split into two halves, and there’s a fairly active transfer window in between them in which teams have an opportunity to assess and address weaknesses, I like to look at each individually.

Washington tightened tf up defensively while keeping their shot numbers even. Portland, however, have pretty much done the opposite. Their xG is dipping, and if that was the only movement it would be fine, even though .37 is a three good shots/two great shots per game difference. But the glaring number is their xGA, which ballooned by .32.

Rolling xG is essentially a form guide tracking xG/xGA on a five week rolling basis. It’s useful in seeing where a team’s peaks and valleys are, and whether a run of results were as good or as bad as the final scores suggested.

wahsington spirit

The Spirit had a tough start, and under Jonatan Giráldez never quite got to the point where they could put up high xG values without also conceding the same. In the past couple months under Adrián González they’ve seemed to figure it out. (Though their late dip could be the result of that form being over, or them having nothing to play for.)

portland thorns

As for Portland’s? Well, yoiks.

In the second half of the season they haven’t been able to generate expected goals without conceding even more to their opponents. To stop that they’ve essentially strangled their chance creation and ended up finishing the season on some Moultrie & Prayer type shit. It won them one playoff game already, so there’s no reason to change now that they’re one win away from the championship.

washington spirit

Important news from the Let’s Not Overthink It Department.

Kouassi is a wide player who is damn near impossible to mark 1v1. Even though Janine Sonis (surprisingly) had her moments against Rose, she was still able to carry and pass the ball into and around Louisville’s box, seemingly whenever she wanted. Kouassi had six key passes (passes leading directly to a shot) and .925 expected assists (xA). Heavens.

Portland’s backline (particularly center backs) have been #ungood, especially when forced to step out and defend 1v1. If the Spirit can manufacture the same opportunities that Kouassi had against Sonis, Portland defenders are going to have a very bad day.

portland thorns

Another obvious one I’m afraid. Moultrie’s creativity and precision in and around the box — from open play or set pieces — has meant that she’s essentially Portland’s sole attacking engine now. Moultrie delivered the match winning assist in the quarterfinal, and was responsible for .89 (xG + xA) of Portland’s 1.42 xG against San Diego.

The touch map above will add to the annoyance of the task of containing her. She pops up along either flank, but seems to love those wide forward areas, which leaves central spaces free for other players to run into or position themselves in for passes or crosses.

It will take a very organized and disciplined defense to ensure she can’t make dangerous connections in the box. But even if that succeeds, she’s added ‘free kick specialist’ to her résumé, so fouling around the box can gift a low xG chance that she can turn into a highlight reel-worthy goal.

washington spirit will win if…

…they remember where they left their finishing boots.

In their first ten games since returning from the summer break the Spirit dropped 18 goals. In the final three games they scored just three (two losses and a shutout). There’s the caveat that they weren’t really playing for much, having wrapped up the #2 seed with multiple games to play. But it’s not like they rediscovered that gear against Louisville. The chance creation was there, but the final action was poor or missing altogether.

Yes you (mostly) have to score goals to win games, so this is not groundbreaking analysis. But missing chances emboldens the opposition, and worse, offends the xG Gods. I’m not terribly superstitious, but I do very much believe that the universe has a sense of karma that must not be trifled with. I’ve seen too many instances of a team pissing off the xG Gods by missing chances, then suddenly the opposition scores with either minimal effort or a low xG chance, just to teach the wasteful team a lesson.

Sure, you could chalk this up to the psychological impact of frustration, or a team taking too many risks in possession and leaving gaps behind, you are welcome to be boring. I will be over here acknowledging the presence and power of the xG Gods tyvm. Anyway, if I were the Spirit I would stay on their good side, particularly after the last game in which they blasphemed quite a lot.

portland thorns will win if…

…they protect their backline.

Rob Gale has seemed to shift from his typical open style of play to something more plodding, perhaps to spare his defenders. Against San Diego this resulted in an uncharacteristically uneventful match for Delphine Cascarino, who led the NWSL in assists during the regular season. She posted just 4 progressive carries and 2 progressive passes, and was only able to complete one (1!) key pass.

They will need a similar effort against Kouassi, and Trinity Rodman if she plays. The problem will be that the Spirit do a bit more to manipulate the defense than knock it over to Cascarino in 5-yard increments. Washington use all sorts of combinations and off ball movements to open space, so the Thorns will need to be disciplined and on the same page so a missed assignment or hesitation doesn’t result in a 1v1 situation they’re likely to lose.

The Spirit are due for some good finishing luck, and they should get opportunities against Portland. Set pieces can be an equalizer, and probably one the Thorns will try to capitalize on to grab and advantage or level the game.

If Spirit defenders Tara McKeown and Gabby Carle are out, things will get a lot more spicy. Barring that, Spirit’s variety in attack and knowledge of how to use it will be the difference, 3-1.