Whomst doesn’t love a playoff preview mere minutes before kickoff? If you raised your hand, put it down. I’m trying, Jennifer. Anyway, in case you didn’t know, get to a screen with Amazon Prime at 8pm ET today, tysm.

Here’s my breakdown of each team, players to watch, a must-win matchup for each, and what needs to happen for each team to win. Then I grit my teeth and squirm in agony and I type and publish a prediction onto the internet. Ugh.

Style of Play

Yo dawg we heard you like pass networks so we put together a pass network from a bunch of pass networks over the course of the season.

Orlando’s 4-4-2 was one of the surest things all season. Defensively, it’s a nightmare to get through. Every defender essentially has a buddy in an advanced position whose job is to limit space and be in the way. Setting it up in a mid-block keeps opposing teams far enough away from your goal, without the risks that come with playing a higher line. It’s balanced and ultra efficient — in defense.

In attack, unless risks are taken that could open up the gaps Seb Hines doesn’t want to see, it’s quite vanilla. Deficient, even. Barbra Banda shouldering the combined loads of scoring and chance creation allows them to have a dynamic, sharp edge to their attack without making many structural sacrifices. Due to injury, Banda only played in 16 matches this season, but her 10.3 combine non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and expected assisted goals (xAG) was 17% of Orlando’s total. In actual goal contributions, her 9 goals (8 goals, 1 assist) were 33% of the Pride’s total goals (excluding own goals).

Since she was placed on the season ending injury list, Hines has struggled to find an attacking compromise. Largely because he straight up don’t wanna. He’s a defense-first coach, and would probably get himself and the team in a hell of a lot of trouble if he randomly decided to Big Ange the situation. But as it was, without Banda, Orlando endured their worst stretch of the Hines Era, immediately losing 4 of their 5 games and coming within a tardigrade’s sneeze of missing the playoffs.

They won three of their last five, drawing the two other matches, to climb back up the table far enough to host this playoff game. But that doesn’t mean they’ve solved all their problems.

Player to Watch

You might think I have lost my whole ass entire mind by not choosing Marta or new signing Lizbeth Ovalle, but I haven’t. In a delightfully surprising twist, Carson Pickett has been the attacking player(???) to step up after the team lost Banda for the season.

The 32-year-old NWSL vet who’s spent the majority of her career at fullback or wingback has been pushed into the midfield or attacking lines, and responded by becoming the team’s leading scorer (3) since Banda’s injury.

She’s scored two from cleverly timed runs into the box for high value chances, and the other was a filthy curler to the far post from a wide and narrow angle in the box. Hines hasn’t been able to fully unlock Marta or Ovalle, but Pickett has been able to read the space and sneak her way to good shooting opportunities in the box. It may not be conventional, or even intentional, but when the universe gives you a gift — particularly in 2025 — you take it and do not ask questions.

Must-Win Matchup

Whether Seattle play in a back-4 or back-5, part of their success in stopping opposition attackers (aside from a dash o’ luck) is their strength in wide areas. Madison Curry has been a demon defensively, and while Sofia Huerta isn’t exactly a defensive stopper, Jordyn Bugg is usually not too far away to help intervene. Wide areas are where Orlando to the bulk of their progressive passing, and likely tell the story of success or failure in attack.

Style of Play

I had a lot of fun with Laura Harvey admitting she asked ChatGPT for tactics advice in the offseason, and I still think it’s kinda goofy. One, to do it, and two, to admit it. Anywhomst, I think some of the forehead-slapping is because, she, a defense-minded coach, apparently needing the prodding of a few clicks and unspecified gallons of water to play a back-5.

Laura, pls.

Players to Watch

Bugg has had a ridiculous season. As a 19-year-old center back she has started in 24 or her 25 appearances this season. And despite what the numbers say about the Reign’s defensive record (their expected goals allowed per 96 [1.33] is higher than their actual goals conceded per 96 [1.08]), Bugg’s been hoopin, even despite having to shift between back-5 and back-4 backline setups.

Other teams missing big chances isn’t exactly Seattle’s problem, but it would be if they didn’t have Claudia Dickey. Actually, it would be if they didn’t have Claudia Dickey reaching new levels of menace-dome in goal.

Must Win Matchup

The secret ingredient to diabolical soccer beyond having at at least two stout defenders (Bugg, Curry) and stingy goalkeeper (Dickey), is a suffocating midfield. You can either hope to be able to funnel attackers toward your best defenders, or you can do one better and restrict service altogether.

This also has the added benefit of winning the ball a lot in midfield, which can help open up passes into wide areas for transition opportunities. Reign’s midfield will be key in making sure Curry, Bugg and Dickey don’t have to have 9.0/10 performances to keep Orlando off the scoreboard, and give them the counterattacking opportunities they want.

They’re able to regularly get the ball in the space between Reign’s center backs and fullbacks or wingbacks. If they can, Marta, Jacquie Ovalle or Carson ‘Goal Machine’ Pickett should be able to find a way to get the ball by Dickey.

The final score is 1-0, or the match goes to penalties.

Of all the quarterfinals, this one is likely to be the sloggiest. Not only did these teams just play each other last week, they’re both coached by risk averse, defense-first coaches. An early goal would be terrific, but I don’t know if we get it. What’s that? You can sense me stalling? It’s that obvious? Well damn.

Fine. Seattle win in pens.