It has been an indisputable truth that North Carolina need a consistent central goalscorer. They hit the second most crosses into the box per 90, 9.33, and subsequently have the highest number of shots from crosses in open play (22). Yet those shots only generated a total of 3.26xG, and just two goals.
While certainly not a center forward, Kerolin’s specific brand of game wreckery added the goals to make up the difference. Reporting from David Ornstein of The Athletic suggests the Courage tried to solve this problem with a £1-million, three-year offer for 30-year-old winger/part-time striker Nikita Parris.
Hilariously, the report claims the deal fell through because the Courage wanted Parris for the start of the season, but she wanted to play in Manchester United’s FA Cup Final. While the Courage have been whipping in a league leading amount of crosses to Not Nikita Parris, she was coming off the bench in the 58th minute of the final and eventually got to lift a trophy she’d lifted twice before. That’s about £31k per minute of expensive cardio.
Blessing in disguise?
I don’t slate players for making whatever decisions they feel are best, but that doesn’t mean that every now and then one won’t be funny, and this one certainly is. But it also may have indirectly benefitted the Courage (assuming they’re not going to throw the same bag when August rolls around).
After stalling and falling out of favor at Arsenal, Parris needed a bit of a reboot to her career as she entered her 30s, and United seem to have been the reset button she was after. She’s played 14.7 90s (6.8 at CF, 7.8 LW/RW) in the WSL this season and have had one of her most productive finishing season since 2020/21.
Parris has eked out eight league goals from 37 shots, and just 4.54 combined xG. More impressively, and probably most significantly for the Courage, she’s scored four goals from open play crosses, and out of just 1.53xG.
At first glance this is exactly what North Carolina need: a player who is committed and effective in the press, and clinical finishing within the width of the six yard box. But the numbers are a tad inflated. Of her eight goals, only two were scored against a keeper with a save percentage above 65% (74, Brosnan). And, according to StatsBomb’s goalkeeper on ball value (Goalkeeper OBV), none of the keepers she’s beaten have managed to post a positive number.
Okay so who should they sign then?
While it might have worked well, there’s also another concern for me. The Courage’s player recruitment has a hipster-esque quality to it, and every rumored or announced signing typically adds curl to handlebar mustaches nationwide.
Narumi Miura [26], Manaka Matsukubo [19], and Felicitas Rauch [28] are all very fun players who weren’t household names, but have been ballin. Though Kerolin [24] was known prior to her arrival (especially if you listen to Diaspora United Podcast), they convinced her to come to Cary, NC and she proceeded to elevate her game to an MVP level.
Since throwing the bag at Parris feels a bit off, and the Courage have a couple months to consider making a different decision, let’s look at four players who check a few more of the boxes.
Elisabeth Terland
Striker, Brighton & Hove Albion
To be fair, Terland doesn’t score the bulk of her goals from open play crosses but she’d still be an intriguing signing. She’s only 22 and her Brighton contract is ending after this season, which would save the Courage the considerable transfer fee they were willing to shell out to Manchester United.
The majority of Terland’s shots and goals are within the spaces you want them to be for a center forward. Also there’s a lot of yellow, orange and red, which suggests she does a good job of finding space to put high value shots on frame.
While getting the best out of Terland may require a shift in approach, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The lack of a player to aim at and pounce on crosses and cutbacks is one reason the Courage are struggling, another could be that it’s become predictable, and NWSL defenses have caught on.
Though she can still run the channels on a break and find space to connect with cutbacks and low crosses.
Marie-Yasmine Alidou
Striker, Benfica
Alidou is only a year younger than Parris and has spent a lot of time as a midfielder. However, in Benfica’s last UWCL campaign, Alidou played as a striker for one game against Barcelona and two versus Lyon, and dropped three goals. In the competition overall she scored five goals from seventeen shots and 2.47xG.
Her profile would also allow Nahas to do some interesting tweaks, as Alidou can be trusted in midfield spaces too. But the main reason it could work is that Alidou has smart body positioning and anticipation in and around the box, and is decisive. This goal versus Eintracht Frankfurt is all three of those things on display.
Riko Ueki
Striker, West Ham
Yes, a West Ham player, but there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that whatever is happening there is not her fault. The existence of Bristol City, plus the WSL only having one relegation spot, are the only things keeping them safe. As a club, it seems they’re in the same position Liverpool was in a few years ago, with their women’s team an afterthought at best.
It’s impossible to know how much of Ueki’s ability and performances are being suppressed, but there is very much a baller in there. On a quite poor West Ham team she’s managed 5.93xG from open play with four goals scored. The standout stat is that she’s generated 56 shots, and from mostly the width of the six yard box. For perspective, that’s similar to Alessia Russo’s open play shot total [53] with just over one more 90 played.
A ton of these shots are blocked, which is to be expected, Ueki is often one of the team’s only outlets, and is in return left trying to squeeze a shot by multiple defenders. It’s not ideal, but in a more structured and progressive system, Ueki could be a fun and productive signing.
Rosa Kafaji
Forward, BK Häcken
I’m not gonna lie, this one is the hipster’s favorite. Kafaji is only 20 and typically plays as an attacking midfielder. Though similarly to Alidou, that’s not necessarily a bad thing for Nahas’s system, especially if they’re interested in adding a few unpredictable elements.
The main reason I like Kafaji is because she’s audacious. She moves with a ton of intent on the pitch, always trying to test and ask questions of defenders. In BK Häcken’s UWCL campaign she took 16 shots from open play, totaling 2.04xG and scoring four goals. For an attacking midfielder in 8.1 90s played, that’s extremely intriguing.
The goal below shows the combination of optimism and commitment to punishing defenses that makes Kafaji an exciting young talent. While players scrapped for a loose ball, Kafaji saw space and anticipated a teammate winning the ball. By the time Paris FC had lost the duel for possession, Kafaji had snuck from midfield into a gap in the backline, creating a direct passing lane.
One touch to settle, another to beat one of the best keepers in Europe, Chiamaka Nnadozie.
Obviously, none of these names have the recognition or resumé as Parris, but that’s also the point. North Carolina have star talent and don’t necessarily need a big name center forward. It’s likely that North Carolina was committed to dropping such a bag because they sense a window growing narrower, particularly if Kerolin and Denise O’Sullivan opt for new clubs in the near future.
It’s a fair fear, but they should be careful trading patience for inflexibility in future transfer windows. The Courage have a system and style of play that can elevate complementary skills, and should lean into that when it comes to player recruitment.
Unless the massively big splash is available (Sam Kerr, Bunny Shaw, Marie-Antoinette Katoto) the Courage should keep hanging out in vinyl record shops, twirling their handlebar mustaches, and signing underrated players likely to explode within their setup.