During and after the NWSL x Liga MXF Summer Cup several teams below Bay FC on the table at the time were in hustle mode. Utah finally became convinced that signing quality players would improve the team, Seattle Reign addressed major weaknesses, and Rahsing Louisville mashed their ‘make a deal’ button several times. Those teams were sending a signal: a playoff spot is within reach, and they’re going for it.
This meant that Bay FC, who were initially quiet over the same period, had a target on them. In truth at the break several people (it me, I am people) were surprised that they were even in a playoff spot. Head coach Albertin Montoya had been dogged in his demand for expansive, slow buildup soccer, which frequently put his central defense—center backs not known for their speed—in bad situations.
The tradeoff I guess was supposed to be that if they can work the ball around to find the right moments, big money signings Racheal Kundananji, Asisat Oshoala and Deyna Castellanos would do the rest. This did not happen. Like at all. Prior to the break they’d scored just 19 goals and conceded 28. It wasn’t just fluke stuff either, they were conceding the league’s fifth-worst xG per 90, 1.34.
Now that the summer break is over though, something has changed. It’s a small sample size, but over the stretch they’ve improved to conceding just .92 xG per 90, fourth best in the league (better than the Washington Spirit). Their own xG has flip flopped as well, going from 1.15 to 1.6 per 90.
Now I know, some people may be like yeah if you take any random sample of three games you might find some incongruent stats but not a complete picture. I am absolutely not going to argue against that. This is true. There’s also a temptation to chalk this up to the signing of Abby Dahlkemper, but it’s more than just that.
In addition to their xG being substantially higher, so is their xG per shot, which has gone from below the league average of .10 (.09), to above at .11. That seems small but it’s not, particularly given the increase in shots per 90 as well, going from 13 to 15. They’re also getting over 1.0 more counter-attacking shots per 90, and have bumped up their clear shots by .58/90 too.
Thing is, the deeper we dig the more apparent it is that Montoya made significant changes to the way they play.
These increased positive stats could be waved away by sample size and/or the product of a temporary hot streak. I was fully prepared to do said waving as well, then I looked at the team’s pace towards goal. Thank you StatsBomb for tracking such a thing because I would never think to. Pace Towards Goal is the average speed of buildup for possessions that end in shots, measured in meters per second (for my ‘what the fuck is a kilometer crew’, 1m = 1.1 yard).
Before the break Bay FC were moving at the pace of a snail in quicksand, in a bucket of molasses, and set in cement. No really, their 1.83 pace towards goal was the slowest in the league by far, significantly below the league average of 2.39. They’d signed two of the quickest attackers in women’s soccer and handed them cinder blocks for boots. It was silly.
Montoya seemed to want to turn Bay FC into the 2014 La Roja of the NWSL. The idea was to make the pitch big and move the ball around until a gap opened up, and if that gap didn’t open up, well just keep passing. The problem was that this is the NWSL; the ball still moves faster than players here, but just barely.
By the time a gap would open, it would be closed. Not only would it be closed, but in a blink expansive in-possession spacing would become gaps the opposition could exploit in transition. Their revolving door at defensive midfield hasn’t helped, but this was happening prior to Alex Loera’s ACL injury, and Kiki Pickett has done a quality job of being tough in tackles and tidy with the ball.
But now, post break? Shit has changed. By a lot.
Bay‘s pace toward goal has increased from 1.83 to 2.95, which is quite literally first in the league. They’re still a pass-heavy team, but the quicker pace has increased their open play passes per 90 from 426.38 to 440.33. Montoya didn’t just find better balance between pressing the gas and brake, he ripped out the brake pedal entirely.
It’s also helped them defensively. They’re maintaining better defensive spacing in possession (rest defense) instead of players wandering away from one another off the ball to find gaps to receive passes, only to be caught out of position after turnovers. They’re now allowing fewer shots overall (13.06 to 10.67) and lower quality shots(.10 to .09 xG/shot).
Interestingly, they’ve done this by becoming more patient in defense. The less expansive and broken shape helps, as players aren’t forced to chase the ball whenever it’s lost. But their passes per defensive action (PPDA) is actually higher during this run, going from 8.36 before to 9.11 now. That’s still a rate higher than the league average (9.22) but the structure is allowing them to be less chaotic and more purposeful in their press.
Their latest match against Rahsing Louisville—one of the teams below the playoff line trying to grab a spot—showcased Bay’s new approach expertly, especially when contrasted to their first matchup with the same club.
The pass network above is a whole ass mess. The one below is chef’s kiss. Bay won both games 1-0, but a penalty gave them a win in the first match, bailing them out of a game in which they were only able to eek out .33 non-penalty xG (npxG).
In the most recent game they got their shit together. Their mid-block helped them control the game and win the xG battle (1.30/.78), where they forced Louisville into being one of the four teams that weekend to not crack 1.0 npxG (Chicago, Houston, San Diego).
Montoya still has to work out a couple personnel problems though. Deyna Castellanos has been dropped during this turnaround and doesn’t seem to have a natural fit among roles that are presently working. Also Bay inexplicably dropped $350k to bring over Penelope Hocking, which is a ton of money for a player who has so far been a fairly average NWSL player. She’s only in her second season, so there’s time to see what she can become, but that is a lot of money that might have been better spent on a box-to-box midfielder to really get the team cooking (and allow them to bring Castellanos back into games).
The post-break version of Bay FC look a lot more formidable than the previous version, but there’s still a lot to prove if they’re to hang onto a playoff spot. Their final seven regular season games include facing North Carolina home and away, Orlando (h), Gotham (a), and Kansas City (h). They also have a resurgent Seattle Reign to contend with, which could be a decisive six-pointer for either team.
Keeping a playoff spot won’t be easy but they have the firepower, and now that Montoya has removed the handbrake altogether, they have a much better chance.
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