2026 nwsl week 5: g+ pass networks & shot charts

Well, I was going to send this Monday then with midweek games I thought why don’t I just wait and add those and send a big ol’ batch Thursday and then I decided to do neither of those things so here we are. Welcome to my brain lol.

Anyway, there was some fun stuff last weekend, including a need to figure out what to call it when Rahsing Louisville does that. Ok, let’s nerd, nerds.

quick explainer

If you want some deeper info on the nerdery that’s about to follow, I got you. Read and reference this explainer for a breakdown of all the elements on the shot charts and goals added (g+) passing networks I’ll be dropping all season. The good Cata Bush helped bring these to life, and there’s a lot of data captured across the two visualizations.

Week 5

Chaos, Set Pieces and Emma Sears: A Memoir.

Back in the day, MLB’s St. Louis Cardinals seemed to have a knack for several scenarios just sorta working out in their favor. Whether it was hitting on draft picks or actual timely hits in a game, all of it became known as CARDINALS DEVIL MAGIC. I’m not a big baseball watcher outside of the playoffs or World Series, but the phrase feels like it could apply to Rahsing Louisville.

They hit big on Emma Sears, who was not projected to turn into this coming out of Ohio State. And when games go their way, their right back whose last and only NWSL goal came back in 2022, scores a brace against one of the better teams and defenses in the league. In this game Orlando got fully LOOVULL DEVIL MAGIC’d.

Rahsing got Flint back in midfield which opened things up for them in their typical channels. The way they play requires Emma Sears to go off and/or some unsustainable stuff popping off every now and then, and a Lauren Milliet brace is certainly fulfilled that last part.

Game state is a helluva drug (derogatory). The timing of Louisville’s goals meant that they had it, and even Barbra Banda and Orlando huffing and puffing couldn’t find yet another equalizer, let alone winning goal.

I know the Kansas City Current hate to see the Washington Spirit comin after a break.

About 2/3s of the Current’s total xG came from two shots, but if either had gone in this would have been a different game. But also, if my grandma had wheels she’d be a bike and all that, so.

According to Fotmob, Leicy Santos won more ground duels than anyone on the pitch. She found good spaces to receive the ball, won possession a lot, and arrived in the box at the right time — if the Spirit can consistently unlock this Leicy Santos, then the Croix Bethune trade will stop looming so large.

The Current never adapted to the Spirit yeeting the ball over their press. That, plus an aggressive counterpress by the Spirit, disrupted Kansas City’s technical players who want to be narrow and close to one another for intricate play. But when the opposition are pouncing in packs, there really should be a Plan B.

Injuries and Gotham’s roster being full of international players who spread around the world to play tough and/or important games during the international window made this seem like a solid opportunity for Bay to snatch some momentum courtesy of circumstance. Tuh. Lol. Lmao. Nope.

I know injuries likely played a significant role in Guro Reiten making her Gotham debut at left back, but jokes come first here so...

Anyway, Gotham were pissing me off early when I clocked an attacking sequence that had Midge Purce play the ball forward from the backline to Jordynn Dudley who dropped to receive the ball then attempted a line breaking pass to Jaelin Howell trying to dart beyong the backline (she didn’t make it). That’s not how that combination of players should ever work.

However, Gotham figured it out and that stopped happening, and the Purce/Lavelle/Dudley passing cluster gave Bay several headaches. (Also, if you haven’t already, buy Jordynn Dudley stock. Like, a lot of it.)

Yikes.

I’m not sure what Bay was up to during the break but they seemed more disjointed than they have all season. I also don’t know what’s going on between head coach Emma Coats and Rachael Kundananji. But at the very least if you’re down 0-3 at halftime you probably shouldn’t wait until the hour mark to put on your most dangerous attacking player.

This sport is evil.

Boston played their best, most cohesive soccer all season but got wrecked and blanked by a weird Chicago performance that squeezed two goals out of .68 xG.

I mean, the game state gained from a goal within the first ten minutes of each half has something to do with this, but not everything. Despite the result and beyond the confidence boost of winning a game, nothing here suggests that Chicago is any better than they were before the international break.

We finally got to see the real Boston Legacy and it straight up did not matter. The compact passing and ability to find wide players was something we hadn’t seen consistently from Boston. They racked up four of the six quality chances in the match, but scored none, while the Stars scored their two.

I’ve been wanting to believe in Boston, and while I think the performance tells more than the result, they’re the only NWSL team without a win.

This game was sugar free Mountain Dew. All the radioactive sparkle (both teams ~1.5 xG, 16 shots each) without the sugar (goals).

Houston had the bulk of possession but found out they’re much better at reacting than creating at the moment. The quality shot chart doesn’t look bad for them, they have four entries, but three of the four came from Messiah Bright in stoppage time.

North Carolina are playing super narrow under new coach Mak Lind. Against Houston, that just meant the midfield was a tar pit both struggled to escape. But left winger Ashley Sanchez is so back.

Denver looked super ahead of schedule in the first half, then struggled to stick the landing in the second. Still, 1.22 xG against a team that’d been allowing the league’s lowest xG per 90 (.63!!) is quality stuff.

Denver created three quality chances and scored two. The third was a potential stoppage time equalizer from Yazmeen Ryan that probably should have rescued a point.

Regardless, the Summit are for real. Defensively they’ve been solid (though I do wonder what speed might do to a backline of Pickett-Kurtz-Reid-Sonis), and they’re getting adult ass goals from their big German center forward, Melissa Kössler.

It is time to have a #conversation about Lia Godfrey. Her movement in the box has been a delight to watch. She’s not blasting the ball by keepers, instead she’s using smart, well-placed finishes after finding pockets to receive the ball in the box and shoot quickly.

Given all the other attacking talents teams have to worry about, Godfrey is having a hell of a time frolicking in the spaces left behind. It’s a bit frightening to remember that this team will eventually be adding Catarina Macario to the lineup too. Heavens.

None of the quality shots in this match were taken before the 56th minute, and three of the six came after the 77th minute. Portland turned out to be the more patient team, and capitalized on a second phase opportunity after a set piece to catch Angel City defenders a step behind.

Sveindís put up good passing and receiving g+ numbers, but there aren’t many passing connections between her and anyone else. She’s a great outlet and looks to be turning in a superstar of the league, but isn’t quite on the Banda or Chawinga level of solo chance creation just yet.

(Also, not today, but someday, we may have to talk about Riley Tiernan again. This time for #ungood reasons.)

Look at the collection of bodies protecting the top of the box lol. Angel City can go vroom and rack up the goals so plugging central spaces and playing behind them in the channels when possession is won isn’t a bad strategy, I just didn’t expect it from Robert Vilahamn.

The gamble worked.

Two goals from .98 xG may not seem all that repeatable, but one of those goals was Sophia Wilson’s first as a Momma. Not all .98 xGs are created equal, and an in-form Wilson changes the math real quick.

The theme of the week has been game state, so when a team scores in the first and seventh minutes, it cracks open a beer and hangs out for a while.

At least now we know ChatGPT doesn’t yet have answers for what to do when you’re down 0-3 at halftime.

I’m scared to believe in Utah. Historically they’ve only committed to playing one good half of the season, and this could just be their good half.

Utah certainly seemed to relish the big, slick new grass surface, and it gave us a good look at how they want to play. It was sweeping and at times elegant, but I’m not entirely sure they can replicate this against other teams or on their own pitches (even their own).

Still, they’ve only lost once (a narrow loss to San Diego, who seem quite legit), and this 3-0 dub is their third win in a row. Still, I’m not entirely sold. Two wins in this three game run were one goal wins over Boston and Chicago, the two worst teams in the league. ◼︎

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