2026 nwsl week 3: g+ pass networks & shot charts

The NWSL had a weird one in week 3. Eight (8!) teams put up a total xG below 1.0. Creating is a more intricate task than destroying so defenses are typically ahead of attacks early in a season, but this is silly. There’s too much attacking talent on (just about) every team for coaches to embrace footballing terrorism.

However, it’s probs not a coincidence that 7 of these 8 were on their third match in a week due to an early scheduling of Wednesday games. Boston is the only outlier, and no one can really figure out what they’re up to at the moment anyway. For the others, it turns out that asking limited rosters to cope with NWSL physicality and cross country travel three times in one week is too much.

The league got the games in, but we all suffered. Anyway, onward, to the nerding.

a quick explainer

If you want some deeper info on the nerdery that’s about to follow, I got you. Read and reference this explainer for a breakdown of all the elements on the shot charts and goals added (g+) passing networks I’ll be dropping all season. The good Cata Bush helped bring these to life, and there’s a lot of data captured across the two visualizations.

Week 3

Weird game from a shots perspective. Despite the total xG looking rather solid, the bulk of both totals were the result of four shots, with two of those shots happening in the same sequence. Jónsdóttir’s laser beam of a shot was obvs too low of an xG value to get a call out among the quality chances, but if you haven’t seen it you should fix that, and if you have, you should watch it again.

Sweet precious verticality.

While this week was full of soccer terrorism, Alex Strauss was having none of that with Angel City (well, eventually). They’ve been fun every time they’ve played, and while Houston’s press disrupted them in the first half, they got back to doing what they do in the second.

Niehues’ positive passing and receiving g+ shows how important she is to their newfound vrooming. She’s physically strong and gets into good spaces to receive the ball on a half turn to spark mini-transition moments.

Houston’s rookies are straight up hoopin. Ullmark, Klenke and Rader have injected a lot of energy and intensity into the team, which has been key in executing their press. I also love the partnership developing between Avery Patterson and Kat Rader. Last year I was preparing a #FreeAvery campaign, but if this keeps up I’ll place those signs directly into the dumpster.

Three quality shots and three goals, we love efficiency don’t we folks.

Anyway, I’m slightly cheating, one was a penalty, but the other two needed to be scored and were. Though this is yet another case where the total xG for both teams is flattered by three high value shots. Doing the math to subtract those and you get a better reflection of what this game was actually like (a #StruggleFest).

Alright, I was wrong dammit. I thought Filipa Patão would deploy an aggressive but fun style of play but all we’re seeing is aggression and nothing that could possibly ever even be mistaken for fun. Marquee singing Amanda Gutierres only has one start, and came off the bench for the last ~35 minutes, which were the only minutes Boston looked halfway competent. I’m so confused.

I really thought Boston had an interesting approach to their squad build and was eager to see how the players fit together. It’s early of course, but you need a microscope to see any signs of progression.

Utah basically waited for Boston to mess up and it worked. The Royals only completed 175 passes, and 90 of those were passes completed in their own defensive half. It was the third match of a three game matchweek for the club, and disappointing performances from teams asked to endure that this early in the season will be a theme.

Speaking of disappointing performances from teams playing their third match in a week. Both clubs below 1.0 total xG, three quality chances, two missed, one saved, and zero goals. Shoutout to the crowd of 63,004, which shattered the NWSL single game attendance record, but the schedule, altitude and heat turned this one into a fairly poor showcase for the league.

Turns out caring about the soccer is a thing a soccer league should probably be thinking about.

Denver have a simple approach but it’s built on details and organization, and so far in the early part of the season where teams aren’t able to find their highest gear, it’s been enough to nab valuable points. Things will change, and Denver themselves will likely change a lot once Lindey Heaps arrives. But for now they’re a difficult matchup for anybody, and that’s an impressive thing to be true about a team that only became a team a few months ago.

Washington busted out a box midfield, which was a pretty good idea to be able to scrap in midfield without exhausting two or three middle of the pitch runners. Problem is, one of the top two was Hal Hershfelt, who is super out of her comfort of execution zone, and it’s showing. The Spirit also have a team-wide tendency to cut the heads off their own attacks for some reason.

It hasn’t been unusual to see a Spirit player receive the ball in the final third, put their foot on it, then play backwards. It takes time on a training pitch to develop timing, passing patterns, actions & reactions and attacking sequences of play, but you can’t just opt out of attacking until that training time arrives.

There was literally one moment where Trinity Rodman stood with the ball at her feet for several seconds, gesturing, before frustratingly playing it backwards. I don’t know what’s going on but yikes. Yikea even, no meatballs.

I’m really gonna need Chris Armas to explain to a Congressional panel how he started Lo LaBonta, Ally Sentnor, Michelle Cooper, Debinha and Croix Bethune and only put up .57 xG. Not only that, just six shots too. Vlatko gotta be spinning in his grave.

From a Portland perspective, sheesh. They racked up the xG by generating four of the five quality chances in the match. Unfortunately only one became a goal, and it was Moultrie’s penalty. I regret to inform you that the two biggest non-penalty chances were taken, and missed, by Reilyn Turner, which has been a consistent struggle.

I’m inclined to still give credit for the Thorns’ newfound defensive organization to Sarah Lowdon, who was the interim coach until they finally brought over Robert Vilahamn. I’ve seen his movies, and I don’t think he’s capable of doing this so early in his NWSL coaching tenure.

Regardless, it’s given him a solid base to work from, and shocked the hell out of everyone—me certainly included—who was super concerned with an already leaky defense losing Sam Coffey in front of them. Turns out everything’s fine! (For now!) Oops!

[to the tune of ‘Mad World’]
🎶All around me are middle third passes
Redundant passes
Going nowhere
Going no-where-er-erer🎶

I’m certain the universe is punishing me for talking shit about Laura Harvey. I said earlier that there’s a soccer terrorist epidemic and the way I’d been talking you’d expect her to be patient zero for such a thing, but on the surface she hasn’t been. This could be a symptom of just not looking as ‘what if soccer but in quicksand’ as several other teams, but Harvs is letting them run a bit, and goals are following (whomst knew).

Having said all that, and after accepting my comeuppance and humble pie, two goals from .58 xG is silly. Jordyn Bloomer let a shot sneak under her that shouldn’t have, then Mondésir blasted a torpedo by her that was nearly 60% of Seattle’s overall total. So you’ll notice that I have intentionally left a handful of comeuppance crumbs, in protest.

Yeah, um, ok.

Louisville can force a team into this weirdness, but they were without Emma Sears so there wasn’t a need to adapt this harshly to the way they play. Seattle dominated possession as pretty much every team does against Rahsing. They totaled 366 accurate passes, with 273 (two! hundred! and! seventy! three!) competed in their own defensive half.

Some of this was due to the game state changing after scoring in the 10th minute, but, ffs.

Loovull had themselves a weird one.

Without Emma Sears they were aimless in attack, and without rookie Mirann Gacioch at left back, Courtney Petersen stepped into the role, which dropped Taylor Flint from midfield into central defense. I get missing Sears causing a lot of problems, but a rookie left back being out shouldn’t cause all this—that’s a fairly severe squad building problem.

Anyway, Ella Hase did her best Emma Sears impression, which looked like .23 xG on two shots, with both missed. It’s a tough act to nail so no shade, given the game that’s a decent return.

Bay created three of the seven quality chances in the game, missed them all, but still came away with three goals and a win. Usually when something like this happens it means there was a pretty stinky goalkeeping performance. The surface level numbers say that Kailen Sheridan faced 1.16 xG worth of goals and let in three, but the post-shot xG (PSxG) on all three shots is absurd—Pfeiffer .54, Barry .78, Bailey .42 (FotMob).

For Bay, that’s not likely to be repeatable, and for Sheridan this is probably the harshest xG/PSxG she’ll face all season.

Additionally, um, Manaka Matsukubo is back. Like super back.

Bay’s goals likely had a lot to do with North Carolina getting risk averse again and turtling up. Head coach Mak Lind has some on-pitch therapy work to do to break some of these habits. Matsukubo being back and getting close to the starting XI will help, a lot. Of their four quality chances, she created the two highest of the game, and scored one. Wowzers.

This is the kind of thing you do when you score three goals in a fourteen minute span in the first half. It’s nanny-nanny-boo-boo football. Recess bully football. Big meaniehead soccer.

Sweet merciful Christ.

San Diego said thank you for our half of the pitch however yours looks mighty fine too so don’t mind if we do.

I do find it funny that the Wavé threw all their star international players at Chicago, couldn’t find a way to light up the scoreboard, then a rookie who was playing at UVA a few months ago got the first and a USYNT teenager added a second with an absolute stunner. (No seriously, it was some video game shit.)

I’ll forever be loud about the soccer talent we produce in this country, and I wish the league would lean into spotlighting it more. I want great international players in the league, but even if the league were to nix the salary cap and a team loaded up on high-priced European stars, I’m convinced a team full of former college talents would be just as competitive. The sheer volume of hoopers here is wild, and it’s something no other league has in their backyard.

Bro.

Welcome to Sunday Night NWSL Soccer! We Have Barbra Banda & Jacquie Ovalle Going Up Against Rose Lavelle & Esther González in a High Octane Hold-Onto-Your-Butts Battl-…

…ah, well, nevertheless.

Gotham are leaning into doing what they do best, which is disrupting the opposition, but without Jaedyn Shaw they’re also strangling themselves in the process.

These are the progressive actions (passes = blue, carries = red) of Rose Lavelle, juxtaposed against the progressive actions of Esther González, Sarah Schupansky, Katie Lampson (née Stengel), Jaelin Howell and Savannah McCaskill. Lavelle had six progressive passes and five progressive carries, and the other group had five progressive passes and two progressive carries combined.

Obvs you want Rose Lavelle to drive your attacks, but there’s no reason for it to be this lopsided. Also, given that Gotham hasn’t scored in three matches, I’m sure she’d appreciate some help.

Orlando were dragged into the footballing quicksand by Gotham and this was the result. Whereas at least Rose Lavelle was able to try stuff, every Orlando attacker and midfielder was limited in their ability to progress the ball.

Yuck. ◼︎

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