2025 nwsl week 25: xG race charts & g+ pass networks

This week the unbeaten streaks of the league’s top two teams were broken, others clinched playoff spots, San Diego hypnotized Chicago, and results left plenty of intrigue for NWSL Decision Day. The Chaos Gods brought us too far to abandon us now.

Here’s what went down…

but first, a g+ passing/receiving networks explainer

The xG charts are straightforward, but the pass networks include custom data from American Soccer Analysis in order to spotlight passing and receiving impact. These are measured using ASA’s goals added (g+) metric, which calculates how much each touch—in this case passing & receiving—changes their team’s chances of scoring and conceding across two possessions.

(If you want to fully nerd out, here’s a deep dive into the methodology of g+.)

Week 25

The .76 xG of the penalty is responsible for a lot of Seattle’s total xG. But it also means that the pen, plus one good/great shot taken and scored, was all they needed. It’s a high risk game to play, and if St. Georges has been able to find the back of the net with either of her high value chances, the points would have been shared.

seattle reign

Control midfield, control the game*.

(*terms & conditions apply)

utah royals

Utah couldn’t find a way to do much in midfield, the passing connections get quite thin as soon as they enter the attacking half. One problem is that injuries keep forcing them to play Ana Tejada as a center back instead of in midfield. When Tejada’s in midfield, she does this:

North Carolina followed up their best performance of the season last week in a 1-1 draw with the Spirit, with an even better performance against an opponent much worse than the Spirit. The Courage created great chances all game and scored all but one. It feels like they’re doing that ‘peaking at the right time’ thing, but unfortunately for them they’re still out of the playoff spots — for now.

The only team they can leapfrog is Rahsing, in 8th. The Courage face Gotham on the final day, need all three points, and need the Bay FC team that showed up against them to not be the one Louisville faces the same day. Erm, good luck.

bay fc

I have no idea why the pregame show played so much of Albertin Montoya’s pregame speech but it 1) felt like a lot of information that would be helpful for North Carolina to know, and 2) conjured secondary embarrassment in real time, that got only deeper as the game went on and the same disinterest could be felt on the pitch.

I again ask why Montoya’s feelings were more important than the front office showing the players they were invested in improving the team.

north carolina courage

Riley. Jackson. Be. Passin.

Additionally, Meredith Speck was quite the menace to the right side of Bay’s defense, and Manaka Matsukubo and Shinomi Koyama deserve shoutouts too. The young Japanese ballers cooked in the final third, and earned North Carolina a new nickname: Nadeshiko Courage.

Despite the form guide, these two meeting up always produces a bit of a rock fight. This time they went machine for machine in midfield, with Orlando’s penalty being the only difference between the two.

washington spirit

The Spirit started a fairly heavily rotated XI that was still a strong NWSL lineup. The depth of this team is a bit wild tbh.

As for the passing network, well, essentially both teams lined up along the halfway line and had an Anchorman style scrap, complete with swords, tridents, and grenades.

orlando pride

Meet me *in the octagon.

(*along the halfway line)

The story from this one is, why the hell was Temwa Chawinga in the starting lineup? To give the benefit of the doubt, she must have been cleared for a number of minutes that warranted a start, but situationally there was no reason for her to be out there. Of course this can be framed as hindsight given her injury, and Vlatko will likely point to wanting to make sure the team’s performances remained sharp entering the playoffs.

But with an international break between the penultimate match and NWSL’s Decision Day, giving her the time to rest and fully recover before doing all that was an available decision that didn’t require hindsight.

houston dash

Houston breaking Kansas City’s unbeaten run makes no sense, especially against a full strength Current squad. The Dash might be the team I am confused by the most. They concede a ton of shots in the box (11 for Kansas City), have a wide range of encouraging and ‘the hell have they been up to in training all week’ performances, and don’t score many goals themselves.

And yet became the first team to take all three points from Kansas City since May 2nd. This league? Bonkers, and I love it.

kansas city current

The vibes certainly shifted once Kansas City watched their star forward, Temwa Chawinga, wheeled down the tunnel in a wheelchair, which is understandable. The Current will be hoping that this L came at the right time though, because this is exactly how a playoff upset would play out — particularly without Chawinga.

Sweet merciful Christ.

san diego wavé

San Diego’s width and quickness of passing kept Chicago chasing shadows until they were giving up yet another great chance in the box.

Delphine Cascarino is key to making things click in the final third for San Diego. Whether she’s making runs, popping up in spaces to contribute to or complete attacking moves, delivering a key pass or snatching ankles, they are a very different team without her.

chicago tsars

Pantsed, wedgied, and stuffed in a locker. Good sweet heavens.

Most teams figured out how to avoid being hypnotized by San Diego’s passing, but the Tsars’ new coaching regime remained flummoxed all match — even being forced into a non-injury first half sub. Yikea.

Also, this is what happens when you don’t support seizing the means of goal production. #PutTheRedBackInRedStars

This was a playoff game.

Gotham needed three points to stay in the fight for a home playoff game, and Rahsing needed the points to secure a playoff spot. Neither got either, but I thank them for their efforts.

gotham fc

As far as goals added (g+) performances go, this was Jaedyn Shaw’s best as a Gotham player, and best of the year. Shaw took or helped create eight of Gotham’s seventeen shots, and should’ve had the assist on a game winning goal from Katie Stengel that was saved by Jordyn Bloomer (shameless plug for my USWNT roster drop piece in which I talk more about about Bloomer).

rahsing louisville

Ella Hase, Sarah Weber and Janine Sonis stepping up is incredibly important when teams are able to cut Emma Sears out of the game. Gotham limited Sears to 23 touches (second least of the starting XI), with ten being taken in her defensive third.

I especially liked what Bev Yanez did with Janine Sonis, by playing her at left back instead of right. Conventional coaching might have suggested keeping Sonis and Sears on the same side and hoping they could combine well enough to free up space for one or both. But with Gotham focusing on pinning Sears back, putting another clever wide attacking threat on the opposite flank allowed Sonis and Hase space to cook.

This, on Christen Press & Ali Riley Day, is abominable. Mr. Straus, please come see me in my office.

angel city

Remember last week when I was like, ‘Wow, look at Angel City, they might have figured some things out … or, maybe they were just playing the Houston Dash, whomst can say?’

Well, we know now.

portland thorns

Portland are getting wide players on the ball but closer to the halfway line than attacking third, and without central targets higher up the pitch to combine with.

Can’t lie, I’m intrigued by the efforts over the past couple weeks, especially since the attacking gameplan of ‘pack midfield and do football until you can score a goal’ is not a thing that can consistently work here. Shoutout to trying.

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