2025 nwsl week 24: xG race charts & g+ pass networks

Um, so, playoff intensity is already well and truly here. Some teams were ready for it and set the tone while others wanted to contact the relevant authorities. Allow me to underscore the point with a meme.

Alright, let’s get to it all.

but first, a g+ passing/receiving networks explainer

The xG charts are straightforward, but the pass networks include custom data from American Soccer Analysis in order to spotlight passing and receiving impact. These are measured using ASA’s goals added (g+) metric, which calculates how much each touch—in this case passing & receiving—changes their team’s chances of scoring and conceding across two possessions.

(If you want to fully nerd out, here’s a deep dive into the methodology of g+.)

Week 24

The problem with ChaosBall is that it, by design and definition, has no master. Rahsing are more comfortable in it (born in it, molded by it, etc.), but it doesn’t make them immune to its mischief.

Ludmila had the biggest chance of the game that probably should have put the match out of reach. While #DatPurp will be frustrated it ended 1-1, they’ll probably feel a lot better about being the type of team that can scrap their way out of a worst case scenario.

rahsing louisville

I respect this so much. This match was a chance to cement their playoff position, so acting like it made a lot of sense. They pressed Chicago high, with only one player’s average passing position not in the Stars’ half. Wide outlets to Emma Sears and Ella Hase were cookin, but couldn’t get the ball in the net until second half stoppage time.

This is sorta why center forwards are important. Rahsing shifts scoring duties to wide players by design, but when Sears is neutralized (3 shots, just 4 touches in the box) they tend to all pile into the struggle bus.

chicago tsars

Chicago were spared an absolute wrecking through prayer and Uncle Naeher. Being pushed back as far as they were, and without the required personnel or coaching to pick their way through the high pressure, made them extremely one dimensional.

The Pride managed to hold an opponent under 1.0 xG and create the best two chances of the match for the first time since, I think, the Cretaceous Period. Feel free to fact check me*.

(*don’t)

orlando pride

This is a bit more like it. Orlando kept a solid structure in defense and managed to not isolate one attacker up high, there’s also width and tidy passing triangles—well I’ll be! I know this sounds patronizing and my bad but given what we’ve been seeing from them in attack since Banda has gone down, this is #heartwarming.

portland thorns

Rob Gale tried to use wingers again, and well. Honestly I commend the effort because it feels like an acknowledgement that the previous approach had major deficiencies and ultimately relied on Olivia Moultrie saving them.

Problem is, Reilyn Turner isn’t really a winger, and while she likes to drift wide and cut in, starting her in winger’y positions pushes her too far from the box. But looking at Portland’s list of available players, there’s really no one else who can fill that position—which makes the whole Payton Linnehan deal look a bit odd now.

See? This is why Laura Harvey doesn’t try to score goals. They tried, and look what happened, down 1-0 in thirty minutes. Look what you’ve all done.

(It me, I am you’ve all.)

seattle reign

I do enjoy this Reign team when they try to score goals. They created five of the seven good/great chances in this game, and it paid off with a dramatic equalizer from Jess Fishlock.

Harvey probably won’t feel the same way. This seemed like a game to get three points and establish themselves as a top-4 team that will be hard to unseat with just two games left. Instead the draw dropped them to 5th.

In any case, thank you all so much for your prayers.

bay fc

I thought Bay FC were just doing their new narrow attack thing last week because Racheal Kundananji was suspended but apparently not. The early goal influences this a bit, especially since it allowed them to react to Seattle coming forward rather than the other way around.

It didn’t really work all that well from a chance creation perspective, and a late Fishlock equalizer forced a share of the points anyway. Announcing, weeks ago, that head coach Albertin Montoya would be ‘stepping down’ at the end of the season, as the team sinks to within range of the bottom spot on the table, doesn’t really signal to players that they’re the most important part of the club.

They absolutely stuck with Montoya too long, but are also making the end of his tenure weird by allowing him a soft, slow goodbye at the expense of giving the players something to be excited about heading into the offseason.

Kansas City are masterful at many things, and as terrifying in 4-0 wins as they are in dominating sub-1.0 xG games. Playoffs are weird and anything can happen, but I don’t see many weaknesses in this team. It’s going to take a ‘meat dress at the VMAs’-level weird game to top them after 90 or 120 minutes.

kansas city current

Absorb pressure, hit on the counter, and maximize set piece opportunities.

Bia scored early from a corner, the Current held Gotham to one good chance and just .66 xG overall, then secured the win by bringing on Temwa Chawinga to do the thing she inevitably always does—create a big chance and score it. What I’m saying is Vlatko is probably rewatching this game film with Sade playing in the background.

gotham fc

The Kansas City Current are very mean. Gotham got squished and their two most advanced players, Rose Lavelle and Esther, found it damn near impossible to generate anything in the final third.

Each had one key pass (a pass leading directly to a shot), but not all key passes are created equal. Rose’s was a layoff for a 25-yard blast from Jaelin Howell, while Esther set up Gotham’s best chance of the game, which was missed by Lavelle. I am sorry, Pink Lava, I’m just reporting the #facts.

Anyway, the overall point is that even in ‘we’ve already won the league let’s be cautious with minutes and potential injuries and focus on making it to the playoffs healthy’ mode, the Current remain terrifying.

North Carolina will probably be annoyed they couldn’t snatch all three points, and will probably point to the two goals disallowed by VAR. Those were quite clearly offside though, and the real culprit was whiffing on the two good/great chances they created.

From a Spirit perspective the Rodman-Cantore linkup was their most dangerous, and it created their best shot. Unfortunately for them it was the only chance they managed to turn into a shot, and it was missed. We haven’t seen ‘Rodman to the rescue’ ball in a while from the Spirit, but it is apparently something they can still do.

north carolina courage

This was probably North Carolina’s best performance of the season, and it nearly still wasn’t enough.

Still, they zipped the ball around the pitch and did their best to keep the Spirit off balance. Their variety in attack was especially fun to watch, they tried quick counters in transition, rapid ping-ponging buildup play through sustained possession, and a bit of route 1. If they played like that every week they wouldn’t be sitting below the playoff line.

washington spirit

The Spirit prioritized rest and recovery, using all subs and all available sub windows by the 67th minute, and they very nearly snuck a lefty Trinity Rodman banger across the line as the game’s only goal.

While this pass network is unflattering—particularly the small player bubbles (passes attempted) in the attacking half—a point, no injuries, and lots of rotation = a dub.

Oh hell yeah. Five goals from a combined xG under .50 and zero average chances. Call the museum curator at The Louvre, I have exactly what they’ve been looking for.

utah royals

Weird time to put in your flattest performance in the second half of the season, but it was becoming clear that no matter how hard Utah tried they’d dug much too deep of a hole to climb out of.

san diego wavé

San Diego needed all three points and—albeit aided heavily by Utah goalkeeper Mandy McGlynn—got them. They’re still in the scrap, but in a much better position. North Carolina are the only team that can push them out of the playoff spots, and it’d take the Courage going 2-0 and the Wavé going 0-2 in the final matches. While this Chelsea fan and self-admitted hater would love to cackle that cackle, it is unlikely.

Pretty neat what a little #desperation will do. Angel City took 21 shots, kept the xG per shot near league average (.10), and took three of the game’s four highest value shots, with two of them finding the back of the net.

On the flipside, Houston, ‘1-2-3 Cancun’ I guess.

angel city

While it will be hard to replicate the desperation of this performance every time out, there should still be some lessons that Mr. Straus can learn. It’s pretty difficult for European coaches coming over here because some stuff, in theory, should just work. But the NWSL is not a prescriptive league, so paint-by-numbers approaches in attack rarely have sustained success—if any success at all.

I don’t think Target Forward Sveindís is a long-term solution, but it let everyone vibe a little bit. The combination of Jónsdóttir, Sugita, Fuller and Tiernan totaled twelve key passes, and Angel City as a team managed 16 shots in the box. So it’s no surprise that when Jun Endo subbed into a game that was a vibe- and saucefest she said “bet,” and did this.

Some of this is just because this is what Houston do for some reason. This was the sixth game in their last seven in which they’ve allowed double digit shots inside their box.

houston dash

Normally teams that are allowing so many shots inside their box are a) pushing too high and getting caught on the counter, and b) trying to fix it. Houston don’t seem to be doing either. Oof.

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