2025 nwsl week 17: xG race charts & g+ pass networks

Before I get on with it, I have a favor to ask. I’ve been waiting until the day after the last match is played to bundle all xG Race Charts and g+ Passing/Receiving Networks and drop them in your inbox. This means that some get to you days later, despite me typically having them sooner. I’ve been trying to spare your inboxes, but want you to tell me if that’s necessary.

So, would you like the xG Charts and g+ Passing/Receiving Networks from the previous day’s games separately—which would often mean an email Saturday, Sunday and Monday—or, are you grateful that I do it this way and therefore should never change? Vote pleeeeeease:

Tysm. Now, onto week 17…

but first, an explainer

The xG charts are straightforward, but the pass networks include custom data from American Soccer Analysis in order to spotlight passing and receiving impact. These are measured using ASA’s goals added (g+) metric, which calculates how much each touch—in this case passing & receiving—changes their team’s chances of scoring and conceding across two possessions.

(If you want to fully nerd out, here’s a deep dive into the methodology of g+.)

• Player bubble position: Average passing position

• Player bubble size: Passes attempted

• Player bubble color: Passing g+ rating

  • Passing g+: Pass value added (according to xPass)

• Ring color: Receiving g+ rating

  • Receiving g+: Pass value added through reception

• Lines: Pass volume between players

Week 17

Orlando’s defensive solidity is going to be tested when teams don’t have to worry about Barbra Banda at the other end, and this Angel City match was a very good example. Reinforcement in the magical stylings of Lizbeth Ovalle are coming, but she’s not a Banda, because no one is a Banda. Seb Hines has some work to do.

From an Angel City standpoint, my lordt that is a lot of shots for just 1.2 xG. Tighten up.

angel city

This was Angel City’s best performance under Straus, but that should offer just as much pride as finding the least dirty sock in the hamper. Still, Fuller looked more like Fuller, Tiernan looked more like Tiernan, and in the end he learned the valuable lesson of letting Alyssa Thompson cook.

orlando pride

Yeah, this ain’t gonna do it. Ovalle will help, but Hines is going to have to commit more numbers in attack to rebalance the team without Banda.

Ludmila scoring three goals in ten minutes from three shots totaling .27 xG is the good stuff. Gimme a spoon and a lighter and leave me alone.

chicago tsars

The three goal comeback is even more impressive when you see this. No recognizable shape, players barely connecting, and little tiny baby passing bubbles. Shoutout to Ella Masar for finding a way to fix this mid-game.

north carolina courage

North Carolina were cookin, until they weren’t. Ashley Sanchez had her best game in a while, dropping a top tier passing and receiving goals added (g+) performance. Manaka Matsukubo didn’t quite find her passing range, but did routinely find great spots to receive the ball and g+ liked it, a lot.

This game was exactly the kind of showcase on a big cable network the league needed, and needs more of. I don’t particularly love the idea of playing on converted baseball fields, but players and coaches praised the transformation and felt secure on it.

Anywho, what a silly game. We got a .01 xG shross goal, a defender scoring an own goal and making it up with a goal for the correct team, and we nearly had another three goal comeback that’s become all the rage in the NWSL.

bay fc

Bay moved the ball around well but as usual couldn’t consistently create quality chances. Not even cracking 1.0 xG despite dominating the second half while the Spirit tried to cling onto a lead is quite stinky. Just five shots totaling .34 xG in the second half ain’t how you make a three goal comeback unless you were named Ludmila this weekend.

washington spirit

Washington looked fun and fluid, and for once got the goals to fit the control they seemed to have in a first half. Croix Bethune scored the best chance, while the others were a a bit more flukey, but it allowed them to dictate the game.

In the second half the long travel caught up with them, and they were just holding on. Aubrey Kingsbury won’t like the film of Kelli Hubly’s goal, but she made up for it with a final minute diving stop from fellow goalkeeper Jordan Silkowitz.

You read that right, this league is silly.

Oh dear.

nj/ny gotham fc

The Bats are not having an OK time. Esther is tied with Temwa Chawinga in the golden boot race but you wouldn’t know it by Gotham’s results, whose last win was June 21st. Obvs the summer break is in there but also they’ve played four games since

It’s also not like that four-game run has been some sort of gauntlet. They’ve faced Chicago, Washington, Houston and Utah — three of those teams make up the bottom 4 of the table.

[Pusha T voice] Yeughk.

utah royals

Yeah ok I thought/hoped/wanted to believe that Utah was onto something with very respectable results and showings in back-to-back games against Kansas City and Orlando. Turns out they were just defending for their lives, and are still trying to do so despite no longer facing KC or Orlando.

This is diabolical soccer. The attacking half is lava type shit. Some Jose Mourinho with a lead in a cup final ass shit. Cut it out.

Kansas City are simply here to turn your dreams into nightmares. It’s only 2-0 but the Thorns had lost just one of their previous 5, and have been leading the entire league in xG per game (1.87) since the break. Then the Current scored in the first minute and held Portland to just .14 xG for an entire half. Heavens.

portland thorns

Group hug!

kansas city current

Surrounded.

Not gonna lie, I was predicting a snoozer for this one but am very glad it was not that. Sure, the Reign went a significant stretch of a half failing to register any xG, but like Cybertrucks spontaneously catching fire they just do that sometimes.

houston dash

Houston’s 14 shots were their most in a game since April 12th. Oof.

Tell me it’s not some North Carolina ass shit to have three defenders posting your team’s highest passing g+ ratings. According to FBref, the Dash have attempted and completed the second most short passes (5-15 yards) in the league, but have the third fewest passes into the penalty area (94 for the season) and are also middle of the pack with just 74 carries into the penalty area.

For comparison, San Diego leads the league in attempted and completed short passes, but are second in carries into the penalty area (103) and lead the league with 152 passes into the penalty area. Not all possession schemes are created equal and all that, but Dash coaches need to have a come to Jesus about what all that passing is supposed to do.

seattle reign

Once Chicago completed a three goal comeback on Seattle I told you Laura Harvey was never going to let them score three goals again. Yup, just five shots and .39 xG will see to it.

Every now and then the nerds get it right. San Diego was the surprise of the first half of the season but the nerds told you they were getting results through a massive overperformance of their xG.

Now, San Diego have won just one match since June 22nd, and even more poignantly have managed to score only three total goals in that stretch. Regression to the mean is a hatin’ ass hater.

san diego wavé

In the first half of the season the Wavé squeezed five goals from 1.6 xG against North Carolina, this time around they got no goals from 1.63, despite 22 shots and chances of .18, .41, .23, and .37. The Finishing Gods have come to collect.

rahsing louisville

Rahsing are swiftly turning into the team someone is gonna really hate to face in the playoffs. They didn’t do a ton in terms of shot creation, and Emma Sears’ 59th minute goal was their very last shot of the match—by design. With the time left in the match they just focused on being as annoying as they could be to San Diego.

It worked, and is certainly a formula that can cause a problem or two in the playoffs.

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