playoff preview: orlando pride vs. chicago red tsars

Cue the Pitbull, finally, the playoffs are here. The first matchup is a #1 vs #8 tussle between NWSL Shield winners, Orlando Pride, and the Chicago Red Tsars (yes, tsars, it’s a whole…thing), who dropped from 6th to 8th over the last weeks of the regular season. Unfortunately for Chicago there’s no ‘one weird trick to beat the Pride’, but they might’ve stumbled on something in the final 45 minutes of the season that may give them a chance.

team overviews

There might not be a playoff matchup between two teams who had more different regular seasons. Obviously this is something you would expect from a #1/#8 matchup, but it’s much deeper than that.

The Pride were second in the league in shots per 90, Chicago was last; the Pride were second in xG per 90, Chicago was second to last (Houston); and the Pride had the second most shots created from a high press, Chicago was last.

Defending is more of the same as well. Orlando conceded the fourth fewest shots per 90, Chicago the highest; and the Pride conceded the third lowest xG per 90, Chicago the third highest. One area where they’re not entirely dissimilar is in their passes per defensive action (PPDA), which measures the intensity of a team’s press. The Red Stars had the highest in the league, allowing an average of 12.06 passes before defensive action, but Orlando is just two ahead, allowing 10.50.

Though the numbers are similar they go about applying this pressure in extremely different ways. Chicago’s pressure map shows where they focus their defensive action. They choose to sit in their own half and wait for the ball to come to them. This invites a ton of pressure, which is why their xG and shots conceded are so high. This is the NWSL after all, you’re gonna be pressured regardless, inviting it seems an unnecessary step.

Orlando’s approach is different. Part of this is because they’re the most balanced and adaptable team in the league, but another part is that Seb Hines has implemented a masterful and well-executed mid-block. They don’t push their backline high up the pitch like most high pressure teams, instead they keep the pressure at or just above the edge of their defensive third. The midfielders use positioning, communication and organization to funnel the ball into traps, while they also focus on allowing the attacking line to press in the opposition’s defensive third.

The Pride typically allow passes in the middle of the pitch, but as soon as the ball goes in either vertical direction (or is funneled to a side where they can spring a trap), they pounce. This disrupts buildup while allowing them to have a high pressing presence without sacrificing loads of space in behind. It requires discipline and a lot of mobility from each line, and thanks to exceptional player recruitment Orlando has everything they need.

players to watch, for a variety of reasons

Obvs Mallory Swanson. She’s one of the best players in the world and Chicago’s most reliable ball carrier and goal threat. Unfortunately the entirety of her game has been restricted by the Red Stars’ low block approach. In possession Swanson can do so much more, but the problem is that Chicago hates having possession. They rank lowest in the league by a large margin, only managing 42% of the ball per 90. Houston, who finished bottom of the league and conceded the second most goals this season, is just above, with 47%.

For Orlando you absolutely must start with Barbra Banda, because she is an absurd player. She ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in shots, shot OBV (on ball value), xG, open play xG assists, dribble & carry OBV, and touches in the box. Basically she’s a complete forward who is damn near impossible to stop. If it was my job to construct a gameplan to try and at least slow her down the last thing I would do is play a low block and allow multiple opportunities close to goal.

Back to Chicago. A few of their data standouts are center back Natalia Kuikka, whose .10 pass OBV, .07 dribble & carry OBV, and .11 defensive action OBV gives her the highest overall OBV of any center back who played a minimum of 1800 minutes this season.

Ally Schlegel has been an important attacking piece and will be even more important with Ludmila suspended for the game (and next, should Chicago do the unthinkable). Schlegel is a clever player who tends to find good spaces to shoot. Among all attacking mids & wingers who’ve played a minimum of 1200 minutes, she leads them all with .19 xG per shot. Problem is, she also takes the fifth fewest shots per 90 among the same group.

It was also expected that when Sam Staab went out—Chicago’s best in-possession ball progressor—they would have to find someone to handle those duties. They shifted midfielder Cari Roccaro to the backline, and while she’s done alright it hasn’t solved their problems progressing the ball. Over the summer they looked to address it by signing Julia Grosso, there’s just one small problem…

…they’re not setup to let her cook. As a result, you get this. Which is a yike. Several yikes, probably. Perhaps an entire yikea.

As for Orlando, well, they’re on some pick a card any card type shit. The obvious players to focus on outside of Banda are Marta and Adriana, two outrageous and elite attackers, both capable of pulling off banger goals and assists. Ally Watt and her elite level zoomies is another player they can call on to terrorize a defense. However, I’m gonna focus on Summer Yates, in part because Orlando’s 2023 draft picks were among the first signs that they were so serious about not sucking anymore.

Yates needed a season to settle into the league but has had a breakout season. She’s an engine room sort of attacking talent who does whatever’s needed. She can progress the ball through passing or carrying, or be an out of possession terror. Among her position group she’s third in aggressive actions per 90, recording 15.96 pressures, tackles or fouls within two seconds of an opposition player receiving the ball. On top of all that, she’s adding to her repertoire of skills, evidenced by an absolute dime of an assist she dropped to Watt in Orlando’s final regular season game.

ok cool whatever nerd how is the game actually gonna go

I know the NWSL is known for its extreme parity, two years ago Orlando and Gotham were 10th and 12th in a twelve team league, but Chicago winning this game feels damn near impossible. Which is quite damning considering they have Mallory Swanson, who should be enough to make any upset not seem impossible. No shade to Chicago (well, some shade because why do they play like that), but a complete team like Orlando will typically find a way to beat an incomplete one.

If they are to pull it off though they only have the super unenviable task of finding cracks in one of the most complete teams the league has ever seen. A shred of hope for Chicago is that in the very last minutes of the regular season, against the Kansas City Current (another top-4 team), they finally tried something different—they went forward.

Yes, yes this is likely because they were already down 3-0 after 33 minutes and had no other choice but to fight back, but still, the Red Stars explored the final third and didn’t exactly look like all Bambi on ice about it. They crafted a nice goal just after halftime, and created three more above average xG shots for three different players—and none of them from Mal Swanson.

Obvs it’s one thing to do this to a team that downshifted to preserve a lead and end the game healthy and without expending any more energy than necessary, and another to pull it off from the start against a team that won the NWSL Shield a month before the end of the regular season. But I hope we see that approach. Not only will the Pride likely not be expecting it, they’re mega underdogs anyway and should apply pressure rather than sitting back and bracing for the inevitable.

prediction

I hate giving predictions because I suck at them but you’re here and willing to give your time, reads and clicks it’s only fair that I stop whining and just do it. While 17% of me is eager to see if Chicago might switch up to try and catch Orlando off guard, whether they do or not shouldn’t matter. Orlando are just too good. I’m feeling 3-0 to the Pride.

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