nwsl week 16: xG race charts & pass networks

Week 16 featured a very fun and informative top of the table clash, and also a fun but frustrating bottom of the table pillow fight.

In between that we had a lot of intriguing stuff to dig into, including Jonatan Giráldez’s first match in charge, San Diego continuing to show that Casey Stoney was not the problem, the courage maybe needing a little bit less possession, plus results from a riveting one match study on why having Mallory Swanson on your team is better than not having Mallory Swanson on your team.

Here’s what the week looked like according to StatsBomb’s xG race charts and passing networks.

portland thorns 1-0 san diego wavé

The final score makes this look like a narrow win but in terms of xG this was not a 1-0 game. The Thorns missed chances of .48, .19, .18, .17, and .49 xG. Janine Beckie alone missed chances totaling 1.15 xG on just three shots, yikington.

As for the Wavé, yeeting Casey Stoney is looking more foolish by the game. Their .91 non-penalty xG is down from 1.45 in their first match without Stoney, and not finishing chances remains an issue. Unfortunate that San Diego’s front office is finding out that Casey Stoney isn’t the only manager not allowed to kick the ball into the goal.

thorns

I dunno what this is, but it *worked!

*barely

wavé

This doesn’t look awful, but not being able to generate chances was the problem with Stoney and is continuing to be a problem.

Also, Alex Morgan could probably use a game or two off to reset. Her penalty miss last week seemed to compound her finishing issues. In this game she missed San Diego’s two biggest chances of the match (.12, .18), giving her a season total of 2.64 non-penalty xG on 26 shots and 0 goals.

Of all central strikers with at least 600 minutes played, Morgan is last in overall on ball value (OBV) with -.27, including -.21 shot OBV. This is because only 11 of her 26 shots have had to be saved, and five of those had a lower post-shot xG than their standard xG values.

chicago red stars 1-0 houston dash

This was Houston’s first match over 1.0 xG since May 24th, but this is the difference between having a player like Mallory Swanson and not. The Dash missed chances of .24, .21, and .32, while Swanson’s .06 strike for the lone goal gave Chicago all the points.

red stars

Chicago are defense first and will do whatever they can to muck up midfield and disrupt passing patterns, and as a result sometimes this is what you get.

dash

Yuki Nagasato cooked in this game, and had the highest pass OBV of the match. Many of those passes fed Diana Ordóñez, who’s unfortunately still struggling to recover the form of her rookie season. She missed chances of .21, .03 and .32 xG. Oof.

kc current 1-2 orlando pride

This was billed as the game of the season and rightly so. These two have stormed the league behind Temwa Chawinga and Barbra Banda being damn near impossible to defend. Both scored, and Temwa forced Carrie Lawrence into a second yellow in just 42 minutes.

From there it became about the managers. Seb Hines’s mistake was leaving Lawrence on Chawinga, but after her dismissal he got to work, and Orlando showed they were the more balanced side. A second half penalty from Marta gave them the win, but look at the chart after that.

The Pride did an exceptional job of keeping the Current to low quality chances. After the pen KC had thirteen shots registering xG, just two were above .10, and none were for their typical goalscorers. Elli Wheeler missed their biggest, .32, and center back Stine Ballisager missed a .16 chance from a corner.

current

As usual, the Current used their fullbacks to spring attacks behind the lines and put pressure on defenders. But it was the service and passes after that where the Pride did work to limit the connections of a very dangerous attacking front.

pride

This will happen after a first half red card. Still, the Pride managed brilliantly. On another day they probably lose, but on this one they deserved to celebrate vigorously given what they showed a player down against the best attack in the league.

angel city 1-2 nj/ny gotham

Angel City might be very mad at themselves about this one. The penalty inflates their xG by .78, but they also missed chances of .38 and .52 in the first ten minutes of the match. Rose Lavelle missed an early one too, .50, but then scored a .14, and Ella Stevens created a .84 chance for Sheehan for the winner in the sauciest and most iconic of ways.

acfc

Should just copy/paste what I say about Angel City under Tweed every week. They’ll manage to get good performances from one or both wings, but everything centrally is stuck in or around the center circle with no central vertical threat.

gotham

Mandy Freeman gave up the penalty so that sucks but she has been very fun at right back, and offering a dangerous balance for Gotham. In this match they overloaded on her side, giving Jenna Nighswonger a lot of space on the left, which is diabolical but smart.

bay fc 0-3 washington spirit

This turned out to be Jonatan Giráldez’s first official match as head coach, and it’s kind of funny that it turned out to be a probably very familiar 3-0. This wasn’t necessarily a masterclass though, after the Spirit dominated the first twenty minutes, Bay responded but couldn’t finish.

In between Rodman’s penalty and Sarr’s goal that made it 3-0, Bay had eleven shots registering xG but missed them all, including shots worth .23 and .20 xG.

bay

This is not how Bay FC’s pass networks usually look. Typically they’re somewhat ideal, you can see a clear structure and formation, but this is yet another example of how goals change games beyond the obvious. Going down 2-0 in twenty-one minutes forces a departure from at least plans A and B. Maybe also C.

spirit

Washington kept a good defensive shell to cope with Asisat Oshoala and Racheal Kundananji. In the past teams that have forced the Spirit’s fullbacks to remain in their own half have found success. The Spirit found a counter in rookie Makenna Morris, who made her first start and tormented Bay for a goal, assist and drawn penalty.

(Also, don’t let Rodman’s bubble in midfield fool you, she just swapped flanks.)

nc courage 3-1 rahsing louisville

After just one shot in the entirety of the first half Sean Nahas changed his entire forward line and they immediately went to work, scoring three goals in fifteen minutes. Their first was the type of goal the Courage seem to spend most games trying to construct and was stunning. My hot take is that they could do this more often if they were less committed to dominating possession.

Anyway, Louisville were fine, until they weren’t. Outside of the game though, good thoughts, love and positive vibes to Bev Yanez and her family.

courage

About that maybe less possession would help thing. The Courage are often super deep as they try to stretch the opposition’s press and quickly play into gaps. It’s fun when it’s pulled off, but this is the NWSL, those gaps don’t last long enough to capitalize every game. Also, without Kerolin, they lack a clinical finisher to take consistently take advantage anyway.

rahsing

That fifteen minute stretch really tainted Louisville’s performance but based on this it was quite good. I love that Reilyn Turner got the start and scored a classic center forward goal — played to feet centrally in the box, turns, picks out a corner, shoots, scores. Wide players got involved positively in the passing game, and deep midfielders Taylor Flint and Jaelin Howell cooked too.

Problem came in the final third, as they didn’t create many chances, and very few quality chances. In fact, maybe no quality chances at all. Turner’s goal was just .06, and only one other chance registered above the league’s per shot average of .10.

seattle reign 1-1 utah royals

Thought it was funny that this weekend featured a TOP OF THE TABLE CLASH and an lol basement dweller slap fight, but this match was actually quite fun.

Seattle hit their highest xG total of the season, while Utah put up their second straight match of over 1.0 xG for the first time this season. However, the finishing of these chances perhaps shows why these teams are where they are.

Utah’s goal came from Alana Cook being dispossessed by Ally Sentnor, while Reign’s was a hilarious poor touch falling kindly to substitute Veronica Latsko. Apart from those two, the teams combined to miss shots of .17 (x3), .29, .15, .42, and .23 xG.

reign

Reign look fine in possession, though you would want higher pass OBV from literally anyone on the left side of the pitch.

royals

You can see where Utah’s recent extremely random and unexpected signing of Mina Tanaka will fit. For this match, they tried to make it work with Sentnor and Hannah Betfort, which just kinda left both stuck deeper than they would have wanted. Tanaka should change all that immediately.

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