semifinal preview: washington spirit vs. gotham fc

This is such a dope semifinal matchup. It has me equal parts giddy, shook, eager and hesitant. Feel like even omniscient beings couldn’t tell you which way this one is going to go. Would you be surprised if Gotham’s press overwhelmed an inexperienced Spirit midfield? Of course not. But would you be surprised if Trinity Rodman did Trinity Rodman things, again, in a big game? Absolutely not.

These two teams went about their business in different ways but produced similar results throughout the season. Like, super similar. They both finished the regular season with 56 points, the Spirit are only above Gotham by a goal difference advantage of +2. Gotham won 17 games this season while the Spirit won 18.

If Dr. Strange did his weird levitating meditation thing and saw a billion timelines at once he’d come back and say they both won 500-million.

matchup

The basic numbers show parallels but often the true answer lies in more advanced data. This is not one of those times lol. During the regular season Gotham posted 1.37 xG per 90, the Spirit 1.42. They both also managed an average of .10 xG per shot, with Gotham taking 14.04 shots and the Spirit 14.12. (all stats per 90)

You only start to see variances in the type of shots taken, with the Spirit managing more counter-attacking and clear shots. That combination isn’t too surprising, the Spirit like to wait for transition moments, which usually provide a numbers advantage and lead to more clear shots.

Defensively the two are twinsies yet again. Gotham concedes just .91 xG per 90, the Spirit .92. Gotham concede .10 xG per shot, the Spirit .09. Opponents manage an average pass completion of 75% against Gotham, 78% versus the Spirit. And their passes per defensive action (PPDA) is also close, 8.29 for Gotham (fewest in the league), 8.93 for the Spirit.

However, there are some distinct differences that are worth noting. Gotham are in the 90th percentile in set piece xG conceded, while the Spirit struggle, and are only in the 66th. Gotham also concede a shot and a half fewer per 90 than the Spirit, and their defensive distance (essentially line of confrontation) is much higher up the pitch (96th percentile vs. 81st).

This all points to how extreme Gotham’s style of play truly is. They park themselves high up the pitch and use a ton of energy and coordination to cut off outlets to or behind their defense. It really is organized chaos, and is as remarkable as it is suffocating. Most teams putting that many players in the attacking half would leave themselves vulnerable defensively, but Gotham only allowed twenty goals all season, tied for the fewest in the league.

The Spirit are a bit more chameleon’y and ready to accept the task of problem solving on the fly. If the Spirit feel like they can claim the bulk of possession they’ll creep up high and switch on a vicious counterpress of their own to ensure they keep the ball—and pressure—high. The Spirit led the NWSL with 40.08 counterpressures per 90, and naturally, Gotham isn’t far away, with 39.31.

If a team is intent on having the ball, that’s fine for the Spirit too, and they will adjust how they expend their energy. They’ll drop into a mid-block, engage their press and look for opportunities to hit quickly in transition. When you have Trinity Rodman, that’s a gameplan that can be just as devastating.

previously on…

Against Bay in the quarterfinal the Spirit had to be their problem-solving best against an in-form opponent with highly skilled, dangerous and confident attackers. Bay also surprised the Spirit by pushing back and applying pressure on higher midfielders Heather Stainbrook and Courtney Brown, two rookies head coach Jonatan Giráldez likes to get in the “pockets.” The pockets are spaces between the backline and defense, and within the width of the 18-yard box, and you can see below that Bay was having none of it.

Brown and Stainbrook nearly got there, but were pushed back closer to the center circle, and both put up low pass on ball value (OBV) numbers with very few passes attempted (Brown, 7; Stainbrook 15). As a result the Spirit started building up the wings with their fullbacks, with Gabby Carle (.10) and Casey Krueger (.37) posting respectable and incredible pass OBV numbers respectively. Leicy Santos subbed on at halftime and was able to find her way into those pockets, and posted .35 pass OBV with 27 passes in the second half plus extra time.

Gotham, meanwhile, had a bit of an odd one. They did their Gotham’y thing and pushed a ton of players into the attacking half, but Portland decided to focus on frustrating Gotham’s buildup rather than try to possess and succumb to their pressure. It kinda worked, too. Gotham had 57% of possession and completed 80% of their passes, but weren’t able to rack up high, or even average quality chances.

This was a struggle the Thorns caused. Portland managed 141 more pressures than the pressiest team in the league, and regained possession through pressure 51 times to Gotham’s 29. The Bats were a bit short-circuited, and while they managed 16 shots, 14 were .06 xG or lower chances. They cracked double digits just once, which happened to be Rose Lavelle’s .11 xG match winner in the 97th minute.

This may seem like a bit of blueprint for the Spirit, but the problem was that it took a lot of effort, and they barely had any left to attack themselves. Their goal came from a set piece, and was only one of six total shots they had all game.

scraps within the scrap

One of the things that makes this matchup so intriguing is that these two teams haven’t played each other yet. Well, they have, the Spirit won both 2-0 in the first half of the season. What I mean is that the current iteration of these teams are drastically different than the ones either may remember facing. The Spirit have new players and a different coach, while Gotham have new players and a kinder looking availability report.

One player that could make an immediate difference that Gotham has yet to see is Rosemonde Kouassi, who has taken extremely well to the NWSL. Like, super extremely well. She’s only played 6.7 90s, but these numbers are still outrageous.

The work in attack is obvious, .26 xG per 90 (86th percentile), 2.98 shots (93rd), .42 open play xG assisted (99th), .35 dribble & carry OBV (99th) and 5.95 touches in the box (92nd) are flat out ridiculous numbers. But she’s also a pressing menace, averaging 29.24 possession adjusted (PAdj) pressures per 90 (98th).

Kouassi is direct, imaginative, quick and unpredictable, and has already shown an array of flicks and turns to spin or freeze defenders. There’s just one small problem: shooting. She currently has -.12 shot OBV, which is extremely low, especially for a player who consistently gets into much coveted spaces and positions to shoot. She makes up for it with her passing, but if she’s able to become an average goal threat she could enter inevitable status.

Gotham’s most unorthodox player is striker turned half-wide forward, Ella Stevens. If you’ve been a regular at btvc you know I’ve been hootin and hollerin about Stevens all season. She’s a uniquely crafty player who has a rare combination of technical skill, game understanding and sauce to tear through defenses with precise execution or ‘where tf did that come from’ creativity.

Stevens’ partnership with Esther González has been a nightmare for defenders. Both love drifting around off the ball to create space, or attack space that didn’t exist a minute ago. It’s impossible to be 100% certain whether they’re moving to drag a marker out of position or whether they’re moving to a space to receive the next pass, or the second, third or fourth to come

This unpredictability in movement is why I’m also interested in how Spirit center back Tara McKeown adjusts. She’s been one of the most incredible on-pitch stories of the past couple seasons. McKeown completed a switch from forward to center back in one offseason, and just played every single minute in central defense for the team that finished second in the league, won a league record 18 games, posted seven shutouts, and only allowed multiple goals in seven games.

McKeown’s primary strength is, erm, her strength. She’s a ridiculous defender to try to get by 1v1, and when she gets an attacker close, her forward’s quick first step and acceleration helps her stick with them in ways most center backs can’t. When she engages a dribbler, she successfully makes the tackle 85% of the time, placing her in the 89th percentile in the league (and 6th among all center backs, min. 1500 minutes).

However, most of the attackers she’s had great success with are direct players who like to run beyond or take defenders on 1v1. Barbra Banda had to leave McKeown’s side to pick on her center back partner, Debinha ended up in a couple highlight reel Tara Tackles™, and so on. Problem is that Stevens and González aren’t those kind of attackers, and will pose different problems that will likely test other aspects of McKeown’s defending.

For Gotham, goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger has had an unreal season. She’s prone to the odd weird mistake or two, but it’s all worth it because she’s one the best shot stoppers women’s football has ever seen.

Goals saved above average (GSAA) is my go-to stat to see how well a goalkeeper performs when it comes to stopping shots and saving goals. It’s essentially a stat that uses shot data to measure keepers against a statistically average keeper. This season Berger saved 7.24 goals above average. Remember earlier when I noted that Gotham allowed the joint-fewest goals in the league? They wouldn’t have if they had almost any keeper other than Berger.

prediction

I wrote over 1,500 words before getting to this point because i) this matchup and several of the 1v1 matchups are endlessly intriguing, but also because ii) I was dreading this section. Even after writing all those words I still feel like I am no closer to making a prediction with any conviction whatsoever.

I think it’s going to be a hell of a battle and I just cannot wait to watch it. But because I established a precedent I will oblige, just know that I hate every bit of this and never want to see it again. I’m going with 2-2, Spirit equalize in extra time, Gotham win on penalties.

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