Both teams got to the semifinals in dramatic fashion. Orlando had their victory sealed after 39-year-old Marta sprinted 3/4 of the pitch with the ball and drew a 95th minute penalty, then handed the ball to Luana — who returned to the pitch this season after undergoing treatment for cancer — and in a perfect moment that was almost too good for this world, she beat one of the best goalkeepers in the league to make it 2-0 and seal the game.

Gotham got here by facing, oh, only the best regular season team ever. They stunned them with a late goal, conceded an even later equalizer which sent them into extra time. The thought was maybe that Kansas City had their scare, and normal order would resume. Then Katie Stengel blasted the underside of the bar for a near-walk off 121st minute goal. Madness ensued, and the best team of all time was out after one (1) playoff game.

I kinda still can’t believe any of that happened. But now they’re facing each other in a semifinal, and one of these teams will have to hold that quarterfinal result close until they can try again next year. Here’s my look at each team, and where they’re at headed into this match.

If you’ve ever heard a nerd refer to a team’s underlying numbers, the majority of the time they’re talking about expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA). Results can be weird, especially early in a season, so one way of assessing whether a team is doing better or worse than their results is to check the per-game underlying numbers.

When we get to the end of a season, all that data can provide a clearer overall look at a team’s ability to generate shots, as well as their ability to manage shots against them. However, since the NWSL season is split into two halves, and there’s a fairly active transfer window in between them in which teams have an opportunity to assess and address weaknesses, I like to look at each individually.

The Pride dropped off a bit in xG after they lost Banda in the second half of the season, but the .11 xG dropoff is a lot smaller than I expected. Meanwhile, their defense remained stable and strong all season. While the chance creation suffered a tinier dip than expected given results, their actual goal output plummeted from 1.31 goals per game to just .77. These numbers show that Orlando isn’t as reliant on Banda to do everything in attack as some assume, but they are very much reliant on her when it comes to getting the dang ball in the dang net.

Gotham, however, improved a lot in defense and attack. Their xGA in the first half is still #bonkersly low, which highlights the strength and effectiveness of their press. That they improved on that to push it well below 1.0 xG is even wilder. And they did it while also improving their own xG per game. Obvs adding Jaedyn Shaw helped (which also freed up Rose Lavelle, and super helped), but this Gotham team is completely different from the one that was playing in their kits and in their stadium during the first half of the season.

Rolling xG is essentially a form guide tracking xG/xGA on a five week rolling basis. It’s useful in seeing where a team’s peaks and valleys are, and whether a run of results were as good or as bad as the final scores suggested.

orlando pride

Orlando’s late season slump was super real, but they started to turn it around at the end of the season.

gotham fc

Meanwhile, Gotham struggled, gathered themselves, looked in the mirror, recited a mantra or two, and have been diabolical since September.

orlando pride

I’m not just spotlighting Haley McCutcheon because she scored the only non-penalty goal against Seattle Reign. I’m also not pointing her out because the Pride are undefeated in the playoffs when she scores. I’m singling her out because she’s gonna need to ice up and prepare to enter the octagon against Gotham.

McCutcheon played as a true box-to-box midfielder, making defensive contributions between and in both penalty areas. Gotham’s press will likely pin her deeper than Seattle were able to do, so it will be a much tougher task to have the same box-to-box impact — but she’s gotta try.

Gotham don’t give much in attack so picking her moments will be important, and she may also need to turn provider more than scorer, just to make sure she’s not leaving the defense shorthanded if an attacking move breaks down.

gotham fc

Jaedyn Shaw had a goal and assist against Kansas City, statistically the best defense the NWSL has ever seen. Low key though, Sarah Schupansky cooked perhaps even more, even if it didn’t register on the scoreboard. Shaw’s five key passes (passes leading directly to a shot) amounted to a quite dangerous .47 expected assists (xA), while Schupansky’s five key passes added up to .79 xA.

Soccer be like that, but her ability to threaten Kansas City by passing through them — particularly into their box — unsettled the best defense in the league. Orlando’s defense is also quite stingy, so a repeat performance might be needed, especially if Shaw can’t replicate another 1g/1a performance.

orlando pride will win if…

…they avoid being trapped in the Gotham Octagon™.

In the final match of the regular season, Gotham were fighting for a home playoff run while North Carolina needed a dub to have a chance at the playoffs. That chance was denied, but they did their damnedest by tearing through a Gotham defense that is rarely torn through.

The Courage wrecked Gotham for 1.97 xG, the highest they allowed in the second half of the season. One of the keys was the movement of their front three, who had a good balance of dropping deep and running behind. The variation kept Gotham unbalanced, and allowed all three starting attackers to put up sky high receiving goals added (g+).

It’s not the easiest blueprint to replicate (and may not be replicable at all without Manaka Matsukubo), but Marta and Jacquie Ovalle are two players I’d want on my team if I had to try.

gotham will win if…

…they push Orlando’s backline deeper than they want to be.

Obvs I haven’t seen Seb Hines’ tactical gameplan for this one, but I’m assuming it’s going to be familiar. Charging out of the blocks like they did against Seattle would gift transition opportunities to Rose Lavelle, Jaedyn Shaw and Midge Purce, so my guess is that Hines will revert to type and try to setup a well controlled mid-block to keep the majority of the action away from his final third.

The Bats will likely come out the way they typically do, with their organized chaos. In order for that to have the best chance of success, they’ll need to push Orlando back so that when possession is gained they’re in better positions to take full advantage.

If the Pride can handle Gotham’s threats while keeping their position closer to the middle third than their own box, then the Bats will be forced into slower possessions and longer buildup. Avoiding that by giving Orlando’s backline a lot to worry about early is their best chance at winning the field position scrap.

Gotham are riding the high of yeeting Kansas City and will surely be quite confident heading into Orlando. McCall Zerboni has already pissed off Marta, and I don’t want any of that smoke (or odd attached image). But I think Gotham are doing that ‘peak in the playoffs’ thing that worked so well in 2023, and I expect Orlando to struggle to score.

So, Bats get to the chip, 2-0.