semifinal preview: orlando pride vs. kansas city current

We deserve this. Genuinely. These two battling it out have been a highlight all season. Orlando won the first meeting, with Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga trading goals before the Pride’s Carrie Lawrence received a first half red card. Orlando defended superbly well down a player then got a penalty, which Marta converted, to win 2-1.

Marta’s celebrations at the final whistle sent Kansas City into a tailspin. There were social media post apologies and everything, it was an extremely hard (and ngl, still funny) way to take a regular season loss. In the second match the Current were determined not to lose and scrapped their way to a tense 0-0. That can’t happen this time, someone has to win, and we get to watch. We are so blessed.

matchup

No real surprises here, Kansas City are otherworldly in attack and the only attacking force that can make Orlando’s attack look like this in comparison. Don’t be fooled though, this doesn’t mean the Pride don’t have a monstrous attack of their own, they’re just like one tier of super saiyan below.

Defensively, this is surprising. Kansas City had to patch their defense together after a couple injuries, but traded for Alana Cook and appear more settled. Still, I think of Orlando’s defense as being a bit sturdier and better organized, but the data doesn’t agree.

Kansas City’s aggressive attacking style of play probably helps quite a bit here though. The Pride feel like they can control games out of possession in a way Kansas City, as a team, don’t often do. Individually, getting by Claire Hutton and Hailie Mace seems like a nightmare, but collectively gaps can appear from time to time. It’s just that committing to exploit them leaves space for Chawinga and a lot of clever passers. That in itself is a bit of a deterrent.

Orlando led the NWSL with only 20 goals allowed all season, while Kansas City let in 31. Though the Current’s numbers are inflated by a small number of outlier performances. The Thorns and Spirit both dropped four goals on KC (the Spirit did so with a comically low xG, get well soon Croix Bethune), and Louisville hit them for three. In terms of clean sheets, the Current had nine while the Pride had an absurd 13—yes, that would be HALF of their regular season games.

Still, xG conceded tells an interesting story. Kansas City actually leads, conceding the lowest average xG per 90, .86. The Pride and Gotham are tied at .91, and the Spirit just behind at .92.

The extra goals the Current allowed seem the result of teams overperforming their xG against them. Remember that Spirit game I mentioned? They dropped four goals from .52 xG that day lmao. Yeah, that’ll mess with the numbers a bit.

previously on…

Orlando pretty much did whatever they wanted to do in the quarterfinal against Chicago, which is kind of Chicago’s gameplan. They don’t really want the ball, so once it was 2-0 by the 40th minute it was functionally over. The Pride tacked on two more goals just for funsies, which I respect and appreciate.

No one from Orlando had a particularly dominant game, because they didn’t have to. Angelina had the highest pass on ball value (OBV), but even that was a good but not excellent .10. The Pride were easily able to orchestrate 1v1s between Barbra Banda and Cari Roccaro, who’s been filling in at center back. Of course that went the way you would expect, and I am still very confused as to why Chicago kept letting that happen.

The Current, meanwhile, had to scrap a bit to win their quarterfinal match against North Carolina. Claire Hutton did a masterful job at not allowing Ashley Sanchez the spaces she wanted, and the Current looked to get Chawinga running at goal early and often.

It worked, Chawinga scored in the 8th minute then head coach Vlatko Andonovski, who had been happy to let his team gallivant about the pitch and score goals seemingly at will, yanked the handbrake. North Carolina had 64% of possession and an 85% pass completion rate but only managed eleven shots all game, and just four on target.

scraps within the scrap

While teams face each another as units, smaller battles on the pitch often have a massive impact on the result. The obvious place to start is with two players who will likely be on opposite ends of the pitch, both teams’ superstar strikers.

To be fair, both Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga don’t mind dropping into midfield to win possession or tracking back along the wing, so they might come together a time or twelve in this one. But the real reason to watch is because they both possess world class level game-altering individual talents, and have teammates who understand the assignment: get them space, and the ball.

For Kansas City, Claire Hutton versus the Pride midfield and attack is the primary battle to watch. Hutton was able to successfully mark Ashley Sanchez out of the game for long stretches during their quarterfinal win over North Carolina. If she can successfully slow the service to Banda, it will make the Pride’s attack more predictable for the rest of Kansas City’s defense.

In a season in which rookies and teenagers have hit the league and absolutely balled out, it’s been incredibly absurd that one of the most physically and mentally demanding positions on the pitch—defensive midfield—is being mastered by an 18-year-old. However, we’ve watched it all season and it is just a statement of fact. So much so that when Hutton left for Colombia to play in the U20 World Cup the Current were noticeably different defensively. Like super different. This different.

The xG conceded and xG per shot are equal or close enough, but notice how their style completely changed, and how they had to concede a lot more possession. Their passes per defensive action (PPDA) rose by a lot (7.94 to 12.27), as did the defensive distance (the distance away from goal a team execute defensive actions, basically where is the line of confrontation), 49 meters away from goal to just 41.98. Opponents’ passing percentage also rose, from 76% to 82%. Claire Hutton: legit.

For the Pride there’s always a temptation to spotlight Marta. Rightfully so, she’s the goat. Perhaps the goatiest goat, and she already riled up Kansas City once before. But toward the end of the Pride’s 4-1 battering of Chicago, Summer Yates took some knee-to-quad contact that looked extremely painful. She tried to fight through it, but couldn’t walk, run or jump without grimacing and was subbed off. Her availability could be key to the Pride’s ability to go toe-to-toe with Kansas City.

Yates has become an expert at simply doing whatever is necessary to support those around her. If it’s pressing, she’s gonna make herself as persistent and annoying as a gnat. If it’s assisting, she’ll thread forward passes all day. If it’s dribbling to break lines, she can do that too. Her versatility allows Banda, Marta, Ally Watt, Adriana, Julie Doyle or whomstever is in the Pride’s attack to simplify their game and pick their spots and their runs while Yates takes care of the dirty work.

If she can’t go, there’s not another player to fill that role, and the Pride will have to change a few things in and out of possession.

prediction

I don’t have a gosh darn clue lmao. I could see Banda and Chawinga having a soccer version of a dunk contest and both dropping hatties, or I could see another extraordinarily tense match where a penalty or wonderstrike (or even a bumbling of the ball across the line form a set piece) as the only difference.

All of that is too flimsy for a section that I labeled ‘prediction’ though. So, ugh, let’s do it. I’m going 2-0, with Kansas City getting the last laugh.

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