playoff preview: washington spirit vs. bay fc

These teams have quite a few parallels. The obvious ones are Bay FC coach Albertin Montoya, who stepped in as an interim coach for the Spirit a season ago, and Bay FC midfielder Dorian Bailey being a former Spirit player. But the arcs of their seasons have parallels too.

The Spirit had Jonatan Giráldez take over as head coach midseason while Bay used the Olympic break to completely overhaul their attacking style. They’ve also both been branded as possession-oriented sides, but do their best attacking work in transition. What I’m saying is this might be the most question marky game of the first round.

team overviews

This is the kind of difference you would expect to see in a #2 vs #7 matchup. The Spirit make their jobs a bit easier by creating a lot more clear shots per 90 than Bay, and as a result have higher xG, shots and xG per shot—though not by a super significant margin. The Spirit also lead heavily in counter attacking shots, but Bay counter with more threat from set pieces.

Defensively is where you start to see the true separation between the teams. This makes sense, Bay ended the regular season with a -10 goal difference while the Spirit managed +23. The Spirit lead by far in allowing lower xG, xG per shot, total shots, plus clear and counter attacking shots. The Spirit also have a massive edge in aggression, which is a hilariously named stat but measures the proportion of pass recipients who are tackled, fouled or pressured within two seconds of receiving the ball.

As mentioned above, the key thing with both teams is how they changed midseason. Jonatan Giráldez hopped over from Barcelona after their league season and took charge of his first game July 6, which was against Bay FC. The Spirit won 3-0, but it was the start of him beginning to mold the team.

The key jumps here are the Spirit’s increase in xG per 90, 1.32 to 1.56 and total shots per 90, from 13.33 to 15.18. I also find it interesting that the number of counter attacking and high press shots went down while those other metrics went up, which suggest a lesser reliance on manufacturing those sorts of chances likely due to an increased ability to use the ball more effectively in possession.

Defensively a lot stayed the same, except with some key spikes to call out. Defensive distance is the major difference, and tracks the average distance from a team’s own goal from which it makes defensive actions (again, in meters). The Spirit have been pushed just over three yards higher, which may sound small but can make a big difference in the overall balance of the team.

The higher line of confrontation coupled with a slight bump in allowing fewer passes per defensive action (PPDA; 9.14 to 8.69) seems to be introducing slightly more defensive risk—which they mitigate with rest defense and that slightly higher line that gives them more time to react when things go wrong—to increase their counterpressures (24.53 to 27.73) and possession (50% to 52%)

For the Spirit, Giráldez’s tweaks have been minor adjustments to help secure an identity and simplify roles. Bay FC, however, went bonkers.

I wrote a little about their transformation post Olympic break but essentially they went from ‘zoomies no good, zoomies bad’ to ‘ZOOM ALL DAY ZOOM ALL NIGHT’. Their pace towards goal literally went from the slowest in the league to the fastest. The difference in attack, with several high volume shooters, was drastic. Their xG per 90 went from 1.15 to 1.46, counterattacking shots nearly doubled from .56 to 1.0, and they drastically increased their number of clear shots from 1.75 to 2.2.

Defensively, along with the trade for Abby Dahlkemper, the change was just as dramatic. Their passes per defensive action (PPDA) actually lowered, but they were able to defend better and more confidently. The xG conceded fell from 1.34 to 1.07, and the number of clear shots allowed plummeted from 2.44 to 1.5.

The Abby Dahlkemper Effect™ can be seen in set piece data in both graphs. Bay are creating far more opportunities from set pieces, and defending them at a much more successful rate. In fact, Bay added Dahlkemper to their defense and forward Penelope Hocking at around the same time yet it was the center back who had more goal contributions by the end of the regular season. Set pieces are important, y’all.

players to watch, for a variety of reasons

The most obvious of obvs is Trinity Rodman. She’s one of the best players in the world and the last time she was in the playoffs she came up with the iconic forty yard cross pitch assist to win the championship. She’s improved a lot since then, including her own goalscoring ability.

She’s in the 95th percentile or above in shots, open play xG assisted, and dribble & carry on ball value (OBV). And above the 90th percentile in pass OBV and touches in the box. Basically, she’s a tremendous attacking force who’s also a problem out of possession. Among all attackers who’ve played 1500 minutes, Rodman leads them all with 3.63 possession adjusted (PAdj) tackles & interceptions per 90.

As for Bay it’s all about Racheal Kundananji. If it wasn’t for Temwa Chawinga and Barbra Banda tearing up the league in their first seasons there would be much more talk about what Kundananji’s done in her first year in the NWSL. Unfortunately, Bay’s playing style in the first half of the season wasn’t all that conducive to her natural game. But since making the change to zoom and keep feeding her the ball in space, she hasn’t stopped cooking.

Now xG is up, shots are up, and pass OBV plus open play xG assisted are way up. This is the Kundananji we hoped we’d see at Bay, now she’s here and she’s perfect. She’s also a player at full confidence. After absolutely skewering the right side of Houston’s defense for a goal, she proceeded to force Paige Nielsen to costar in one of the most delightfully disrespectful sequences in NWSL history. Straight up standing on the ball, calling her out, then dropping her to a knee as she dribbled by her into the box. This, right here, is an incredible attacker in outrageous form.

My secondary player to highlight for the Spirit is one of the best stories in the league over the past two or so seasons. Tara McKeown, lifelong forward, just straight up became a quality NWSL-caliber center back. She’s now starting at center back for a team coached by Jonatan Giráldez, and just completed a season in which she played every single minute at the center of one of the best defenses in the league.

She’s had to learn in trainings and in live games, and has continued to find ways to grow into a position that was as unfamiliar as an outfield position can be. One thing that’s helped is her being an absolute nightmare to face 1v1. Alex Morgan didn’t like it, Lynn Williams didn’t like it, and even Barbra Banda didn’t like it. Each went away from her side of the pitch to try and find success.

Among center backs (min. 1800 minutes), only three defenders have a higher Tack/DP % (percentage of time a player makes a tackle when going into a duel vs getting dribbled past—Becky Sauerbrunn, Arin Wright, and Naomi Girma. I say, yet again, McKeown was a forward just two dang seasons ago!!

I also gotta spotlight rookie defensive midfielder Hal Hershfelt, who stepped up her game in massive ways when Andi Sullivan was lost to an ACL injury. Since, Hershfelt has been playing as a lone defensive midfielder and has been vital defensively and in helping the Spirit maintain possession. Her Clemson days suggest there’s more to come in directly contributing to buildup play, but for now she has been exactly what the Spirit have needed.

As for Bay, Emma Hayes’s last roster callup put NWSL fans on notice but Alyssa Malonson is the absolute truth. She’s been one of the most defensively solid fullbacks in the league, ranking third among fullbacks with 1500 minutes played with 6.33 PAdj tackles & interceptions per 90. She’s also played an important role in progressing the ball, whether passing or dribbling into attacking areas.

The one thing about Bay that has confused me was the absolute bag they dropped on Penelope Hocking. I’m not against any player getting paid, but they committed to shelling out $350k across two seasons as a transfer fee. Hocking doesn’t get that money, and I can’t help but think it would have been better spent on luring an experienced midfielder instead.

On the pitch, Hocking has yet to integrate well and as a result Rachel Hill has maintained her starting spot. Given the way Bay are now playing, I’d also like to see them try Deyna Castellanos in that role, she’s another player they dropped bank on who hasn’t performed up to expectation.

ok cool whatever nerd how is the game actually gonna go

Hear me out: I don’t know lmao. The Spirit look complete and composed, but that’s still an all-rookie midfield, even though Leicy Santos might be fit enough to drop in from the start. Still, it’s an extremely tough one to predict.

Also, for all my prior talk of Bay embracing the zoom, they had their feelings hurt courtesy of the 5-1 loss to Gotham that made them turtle up a bit and revert to old ways. However, against Houston they absolutely cooked again and were able to torment the worst team in the league. The Spirit are obviously not that, but they are also not immune to an elite attacker getting the best of them.

Barring the first game of the season, which featured a penalty conceded in the third minute by the Spirit, they lost twice to the Pride, and once to North Carolina, Portland and Kansas City. Barbra Banda dropped the ‘stat trick’ (goal, assist and penalty won), Temwa Chawinga scored, they suffered the revenge of Ashley Sanchez, focusing on Sophia Smith allowed Sam Coffey and Christine Sinclair to take advantage.

None of that is worrisome, those players had several successes this season, but on their day Kundananji and Oshoala are capable of replicating similar problems. If the Spirit can cut off service to Racheal Kundananji down the flank they’ll have a very good chance. If they can cut off service to Kundananji down the flank without relying on Trinity Rodman to do it, they’ll have an even better chance.

In Bay’s final ten games since their zoom zoom revolution, they allowed multiple goals to opponents just three times. One of those was Gotham’s five, which was wild. The other two were to Utah and the Dash lol. They also shutout Louisville, Seattle and North Carolina. Basically, Bay are a mystery wrapped in an enigma written by M. Night Shyamalan, and the Spirit will have to be at their problem-solve’y best to withstand whatever comes.

prediction

Not gonna lie to y’all, this is the matchup that feels the most primed for an upset. At some point having key players missing or less than ~90% becomes a problem. The Spirit have done so well to cope and maintain their 2nd place position despite intense challenges from Gotham and Kansas City. But this is the playoffs and the pressure of that can create pressure and pressure can create indecision and mistakes. With Kundananji in the form she’s in, one mistake could be all it takes.

I’d feel better is the NWSL hadn’t decided to suspend Kouassi another game for having her hair pulled, but I still think the Spirit should grab the win. It won’t be easy, and Rodman will likely have to do Rodman things, but the good news is that she absolutely loves doing Rodman things in the playoffs. Spirit 2-1.

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