Look at you, look at how #blessed you are. The NWSL Playoffs have already delivered two classics and now you have a doubleheader on ABC to wrap up the quarterfinal round.

Both coaches enjoy living in a bit of delulu about their ability to coach beautiful soccer, play it consistently, and win. The result is a couple of dudes with dogmatic approaches whose teams can swing wildly between elite and laughable performances. They do it in slightly different ways, so here’s a breakdown of each team, the matchup they must-win, players to watch, my prediction, and other stuff.

Style of Play

Rob Gale and his untailored suits spent much of the season trying to execute The Beautiful Game™. Problem is, this is the NWSL. When Barcelona — or any equivalent purveyor of The Beautiful Game™ — do this it’s with their average team positioning much closer to the opponent’s goal. But you can’t really do that in the NWSL week to week without conceding a ton of space in transition, that will absolutely be exploited.

Anyway, he tried, and keeps trying. There were times it worked well, but usually because there was a Sophia Wilson or Caiya Hanks who was willing and uniquely able to relentlessly attack the backline. Wilson is on maternity leave and Hanks tore her ACL in June, so the Thorns have had a weird second half of the season.

This lchart tracks expected goals (xG) for and against on a rolling basis, and yup you guessed it, red = bad. In the first half of the season the Thorns were only conceding 1.18 xG per 96, but that’s swelled to 1.5 in the second half. To put this in perspective, over the entire season only four teams (KC, Orlando, Gotham, San Diego) allowed fewer than 1.18 xG per 96, and just two that conceded more than 1.5. Those two were Utah, who finished the season in 12^th, and Chicago who finished 14^th. Since the summer break, Portland have only finished a game with higher xG than their opponent on four occasions.

Part of the problem is that the bunching up of midfielders leads to a lack of defined roles, so disorganization leads to confusion in buildup, and gaps to exploit once possession is lost. Another problem is that Portland’s backline isn’t very good. They recently made a trade for left back MA Vignola, who has helped, but she’s carrying 100% of the xDawg quotient for the entire line.

Since wide players aren’t exactly wide players and instead tuck inside rather than run the channels, Gale tends to rely on both fullbacks for width in attack. Without a solid rest defense, or terrier-esque stationary defensive midfielder, Thorns center backs can find themselves in 1v1 battles, and becoming food at inopportune moments.

This all seems very harsh for a team that finished 3rd, just four points behind the Spirit. But some context is necessary. The Spirit clinched the second spot with several games to go and were playing for nothing for a bout a month, and had a sizable lead over Portland when things mattered. Orlando and Gotham also suffered historic collapses, and the xG Gods noticed San Diego’s overdrawn account and punished them harshly in the second half of the season, causing them to plummet as well.

Sure, Portland did well enough to place themselves in position to host a playoff game. But it’s also just true that they were the beneficiary of other teams Sideshow Bob’ing it more than they did — barely. They’re only above Orlando by a difference of one goal, and just three points separates them from seventh. It’s been a weird year.

Players to Watch

Thorns fans should thank Olivia Moultrie for having a home playoff game to attend. After Portland was wrecked 3-0 by Gotham, Moultrie dropped braces in two of their next three games, which stood as the team’s only goals, and gave the Thorns a desperately needed six points that rocketed them up the table.

While this sudden goal outburst was unexpected, Moultrie has been absolutely cookin’ this season.

Moultrie has 7 non-penalty goals on 6.0 xG, and 1 assist from 4.37 expected assists (xA). All of those numbers represent a decent chunk of Portland’s overall production, with her non-penalty goals and expected assists climbing to over 20% of the Thorns’ production. Yowzers.

One player who might be able to lighten the load on Moultrie is Reilyn Turner. Despite everything I just typed above, it’s Turner who leads the entire team in xG, with 8.41. But while Moultrie has squeezed 7 non-penalty goals from 6.0 xG, Turner has managed to get just five goals from 8.41. With Pietra Tordin out for this game, Turner capitalizing on the shots she’s taken would be a welcome gift.

Must-Win Matchup

I don’t really expect Rob Gale to change his ways (if he was going to do it he would’ve done it long before now), but I also didn’t expect Louisville to straight up refuse to press the Spirit until they went behind. Anyway, Portland must protect their backline.

San Diego are a team full of on-ball demons and if they’re allowed to isolate their defenders — particularly their center backs — there won’t be enough Icy Hot in the state to help them recover.

Style of Play

Remember everything I said about #DatPurp? Well reverse that and there’s your San Diego preview (lol but also not lol, I am so serious). The Wavé use short, rapid passes to zip the ball all over the pitch. They execute the most passes per possession by far, and their average passing distance is the shortest in the league, also by far.

But for all of their passing and off ball movement, they finished the season averaging just 1.2 xG/96, which was the same as Angel City (womp). This is likely due to the fact that while all the elaborate passing and moving in midfield is very pleasing to watch, they haven’t quite unlocked how to utilize it in the final third, and instead rely on brilliance from individual players(more on this later).

San Diego also dared to stare the xG Gods directly in the eye and walk backwards into hell, which resulted in an Old Testament style wrath. Before the summer break San Diego were frolicking about pitches across the country bagging goals they had no business bagging. Their xG/96 was just 1.03, but they were scoring at a rate of 1.85 actual goals per 96. It was a massive overperformance that had them hanging out near the top of the table.

Then, suddenly, in the second half the Wavé improved to put up 1.36 xG/96, but now were only scoring at a rate of 1.08/96. To make matters even worse/funnier, opponents were overperforming their xG against San Diego’s defense, 1.22/1.38. The xG Gods shan’t be mocked.

The Wavé are also a very young team, with a veteran scattered about here and there to shoulder some of the responsibilities that need to be done more consistently. But a lot of their youth is in their defense, where they regularly start 24-year-old Kennedy Wesley, 23-year-old Hanna Lundkvist, and 18-year-old Trinity Armstrong. And for the most part, it’s worked.

San Diego give up the third fewest shots per 96, and are on the positive side of expected goals against (xA), along with teams we know to be defensively sound — Orlando, Gotham, and Kansas City.

Some of this work is done with the ball though. San Diego lead the league in possession, averaging 59.6% per game. This, along with a rabid counterpress, helps keep the defensive load light and manageable.

Player to Watch

Basically if Cascarino ain’t on the pitch cuttin up San Diego is probably out there doing a whole buncha nothin. Allow me to explain in three #neat data visualizations.

Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.

Must-Win Matchup

Everybody vs. Olivia Moultrie

Moultrie has taken the mantle as the Thorns player through which all good things happen, so limiting her space and blocking connections with teammates will be important. This task also includes avoiding conceding free kicks in dangerous areas around the box. Moultrie has developed into a set piece specialist, finding the back of the net on multiple occasions with some very sweet strikes.

Olivia Moultrie drops a mixtape.

Delphine Cascarino drops a mixtape.

I think the Thorns are a bit of fool’s gold, but I don’t think San Diego is far away from being that either (gold-plated silver? I’ll workshop it). Seeding-wise, San Diego winning would be an upset, but to me these teams feel evenly matched — in strengths and weaknesses. Oh wow you think I’m stalling? That’s crazy. I can’t believe you. Dammit, fine.

I think San Diego are more likely to execute their gameplan, which would pit their biggest strength (wide players driving inside to attack center backs) against Portland’s biggest weakness. Wavé move on, 2-1.