playoff preview: nj/ny gotham fc vs. portland thorns

This is the most vibes-y matchup of the playoffs so far. Gotham are a machine that constricts opponents and creates chances seemingly at will. Portland, meanwhile, maybe shouldn’t have even made the playoffs at all. They won just two of their last ten games, and lost seven. But one of those wins was the unexpected defeat of the Orlando Pride in October, who at the time hadn’t lost all season.

Also, Christine Sinclair announced her retirement and in her last regular season home game they decided to honor her by scoring three goals from .96 xG (of course Sinclair scored). Playoffs can be vibe-y affairs, and external motivations can become rocket fuel in constricted winner-take-all settings. Gotham seem to be good enough to be immune to all that, but would you be surprised if Venom voice Sophia Smith showed up?

team overviews

This sorta shocked the hell out of me, but not from the Portland perspective. Gotham’s numbers seem low for as dominant as they’ve been for the majority of the season. Their xG per 90 is higher than the Thorns, but not by a ton (1.37 to 1.26), their xG per shot is bang average (.10), and the shots per game are exactly equal (14.04). They also trade leads in the types of shots, with Gotham getting slightly more high press shots (4.08 to 3.65, while Portland (erm, or Sophia Smith) is averaging one more clear shot per game (2.88 to 1.85).

It’s the next graph that shows where most of Gotham’s energy is spent, and that is to make life for their opponents absolute hell. Gotham by far allow the fewest shots per 90 in the league, just 9.0 (Spirit are just above, with 10.5). They allow the fewest passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the league, just 8.29, which has forced opponents into the lowest passing percentage against (75%).

Whereas Chicago defend by not wanting the ball and sitting deep, Gotham defends by doing the exact opposite. They crave the ball, they do not want you to have it. When you have it, they hate you and want to take it back immediately. It’s why their pressure map looks like this.

Straight up evil shit. Their organized press and counterpress helps them scrap for possession whenever it’s lost, and because they push players high and execute a hyper-intense high press, they usually win the ball back before it even gets into their defensive half.

It seems an exhausting way to play, but Juan Carlos Amorós has implemented one hell of a buddy system. They not only press in numbers, they frequently swap positions to cover for one another. This saves some energy, but also ensures everyone knows the roles and duties of each position, which helps them be fluid and incisive in attack as well.

Portland, meanwhile, are just weird. They’re still a super talented team individually, but the pieces don’t fit to provide enough balance. The above is an xG trendline that measure the average xG they’ve conceded versus xG created. The blue line is when they yeeted Mike Norris and Rob Gale took over.

Results weren’t good so I get making the change, but as the vibes of a new manager bump wore off things got worse and worse. Some of this is the result of missing Sophia Smith, but the Thorns started consistently conceding more xG than they were creating, and that hasn’t come close to flipping in the second half of the season.

It feels to me as if the Thorns were too guided by results and found the pros and cons of such an approach. They didn’t wait around long for things to turn around under Norris, there were very few signs that they would. But when Gale had a run of success they reacted by making his appointment permanent, and now that things have gotten even worse than they were under Norris, they’re out of moves. Whenever their offseason comes, it will be a very important and intriguing one for the Thorns.

players to watch, for a variety of reasons

Rose Lavelle has been unreal for Gotham this season. Part of this is because even with an Olympics, she’s played more regular season games this season than any other. For a player who has battled injury issues this has been a delight to see. Also, she’s such a fun player to watch.

For Gotham her role has shifted a bit as well, instead of an out and out attacking midfielder, she’s often playing deeper and pressing hard, which means she’s also getting into more duels. I dunno what kinda super soldier serum they gave her but I’m fine with it, this has been an unexpected but fun as hell transformation in her game.

If anyone is going to choose any player to spotlight on The Fighting Sophia Smith’s it’s probably going to be Sophia Smith. Nagging injuries and the Thorns having an uncharacteristically bad season (plus midfield and defense) has slowed her down from previous years, but she’s still a devastating attacking talent.

Her speed of decision making, directness, dribbling, strength and balance make her a legit nightmare to defend. You usually need multiple defenders, but in her mind those are merely more costars to add to her highlight reel. She is unfazed, and delights in deflating defenders’ spirits. And for as much as she shoots, she’s also not a selfish striker. She was third among scoring leaders in the regular season (12), and also third in assists dropped (6).

Now let’s head back to Gotham so I can spread the good word of Ella Stevens. Esther maybe heard me talkin shit and decided to have a terrific end to the season, which has solidified her as the central striker and pushed Stevens wide. While Stevens isn’t a typical wide player blessed with speed and elite 1v1 ability, her unique brand of versatility makes it work. She has quick enough feet to keep a defender off balance, but also just makes very smart decisions on the ball.

Among all strikers who have played 90 minutes, Stevens is fourth in xG per shot (.17), first in goal conversion percentage (28%), second in open play xG assisted (.21). Basically, Stevens is a clever creator who prioritizes finding the best chance at goal to maximize each dribble, shot or pass. (all stats per 90)

For the Thorns it’s only right that we discuss the one other player who’s been determined to have a spectacular season despite the bumbling weirdness around her, Hina Sugita. Among midfielders who have played a minimum of 1500 minutes Sugita is second in dribble & carry on ball value (OBV) and fifth in key passes from open play (1.04).

Thing is, those are the things that make us ooh and ah, and rightly so, but Sugita has also been a surprisingly stout defensive presence. Among her position group she’s third in aggressive actions (tackles, fouls or pressures within two seconds of a pass being received) with 14.53, and top-7 in defensive action OBV, possession adjusted (PAdj) interceptions, and PAdj pressures.

Like Lavelle, Sugita has had to develop her defensive side of the game while also remaining sharp in possession and attack. They’ve both had incredible seasons in this regard.

ok cool whatever nerd how is the game actually gonna go

Honestly, why would you ask me this question? I know I write these and have made this section a staple in my previews but, dammit, how am I supposed to know lol. It very much seems like we’re either gonna get an extremely chalk performance that highlights the difference between a team with 34 points and 12 losses against a team with 56 points and just 4 losses, or vibes.

Unfortunately, and despite my insistence, StatsBomb has yet to implement an xVibes statistic that I could use for such moments. I will persist, but until then let’s go with what we got. This nifty little graph tracks the time in a match which teams create and concede xG.

Obviously game state has a lot to do with this. Gotham seem to always start games fast, racking up the xG and pinning teams back, and in the second half they work on managing the game, using their press to disrupt more than create. That would explain the sharp nosedive in xG toward the end of 90 minutes.

The Thorns are the opposite. They start slow, allow more xG, then wake up somewhere around the 65th minute and start cookin. Obviously a team that lost twelve out of 26 games, and drew four others, was probably frequently in a position to chase games at the end.

This trend is probably explainable, but just in case vibes happen and Gotham isn’t able to build an early lead, it could turn into a real scrap in the second half. If that happens, well, only one team has Sophia Smith.

prediction

This is legit the hardest one to predict. Given how porous the Thorns’ defense and goalkeeping have been Gotham should be able to pounce early and have the game won by halftime. They are that good, that balanced, that confident, and that talented. But vibes do matter from time to time, and it would not be the most shocking thing we’ve ever seen—just very unlikely. In a stunning turn for me, I’m gonna go with data over vibes. Gotham are too good to fall into the trap, they win 3-0.

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