playoff preview: kc current vs. nc courage

On paper this #4/#5 matchup should be the most bangery of the first round playoff games. Problem is, North Carolina Courage have spent all season essentially being two completely different teams home and away. Because they’re represented by the #5 here, they’ll be headed to CPKC Stadium. North Carolina advancing means not only finding a way to quiet or match Temwa Chawinga and the best attack in the league, but doing something they managed to do just three times all season—win away from home.

team overviews

These teams have two opposing philosophies in attack. The Current mash the gas and force you to cope with tidal waves of multi-faceted attackers while the Courage take their time, enjoy the scenery, and maybe stop at a farmer’s market along the way.

One isn’t inherently better, Kansas City scored the most goals in in a season in league history and ended up fourth, while the Courage scored the third fewest goals among the eight playoff teams and finished fifth. The points gap (16!!) suggests there’s a lot more separation, but it’s also true that the Courage at home were statistically the best team in the league.

Defensively, however, the teams are slightly more evenly matched.

Both teams have about the same PPDA (passes per defensive action), which suggests they’re pressing at a similar rate. Overall Kansas City are kind of the extreme case of ‘the best defense is a devastating and otherworldly offense.’ Over the majority of the season it super worked.

Rookie defensive midfielder Claire Hutton was big in repelling attacks when they leaked through, but as a team the Current only allow .86 xG, 11.15 shots and .08 xG per shot, while the Courage conceded 1.21 xG, 12.46 shots, and .10 xG per shot. (all stats per 90)

As mentioned above though, North Carolina were legit two extremely different teams in attack. It wasn’t a mirage, we weren’t imagining it, they were legitimately one of the strangest cases all season. Now that the regular season is over we can look at how drastic the difference truly was.

The dynamic of playing home versus away typically causes some teams to change a bit, Chicago typically played better away because setting up in their low block at home was weird and teams often gladly and very willingly took the impetus. For North Carolina, they just always seemed to defang themselves.

Their xG dropped from 1.39 at home to .91 away, xG per shot plummeted from .12 at home (above average) to .09 away (below average). The types of shots were also heavily impacted, with their rate of clear shots falling from 2.77 to 1.62, and high press shots dropping from 3.77 to 2.54. It’s stark, and was one of the oddest things to watch throughout the season.

If it was coaching prioritizing defense a bit too rigidly, and strangling the attack in the process, one would think that at some point there’d be an adjustment. I’m very much a homebody so I can relate to wanting to be home when you’re almost any place else, but this is a whole ass soccer team. It’s not supposed to work like that. Their standout away result was Alex Morgan’s final game, in which the Courage got enough of their shit together enough to ruin by winning 4-1. In the year of the hater, it was a ‘Euphoria’ type of performance. If they can only be motivated by hate on the road, Kansas City and their shiny new stadium might want to be wary.

players to watch, for a variety of reasons

Temwa Chawinga, clearly. I don’t think enough has been made of her not only breaking Sam Kerr’s single season scoring record, but doing it in her first year in the league. The collection of hyper-competitive athletes in the NWSL takes even very good-to-elite players a bit of time to cope with. Instead, Chawinga hit the entire league with the ‘call an ambulance but not for me’ meme.

I also love the fact that her record breaking goal was her second goal from outside the box, just to make sure everyone knew she could do that too.

For North Carolina all eyes will be on Kerolin, or more specifically whether her name is on the availability report or not. She played in the Olympics for Brazil but in a limited capacity, and is attempting to return to the pitch, regular minutes, and her old form after an ACL injury. These things are never linear, and each case and recovery is different. But when she plays and is at her best, she is a league-changing type of talent. It’s why she was named league MVP in 2023.

In this year she scored ten goals and dropped three assists in 19 games. The Courage scored 34 goals all season, meaning she was responsible for 38% of their entire goal output. While it’s unrealistic to expect that Kerolin, any Kerolin close to ~80-90% is enough of a factor to change a game. Thankfully for Courage fans, the report dropped and her name is nowhere on it. It appears she’ll be available for minutes, we’ll just have to wait to see how many.

Back to Kansas City. It remains one of the wildest truths of this NWSL season that after Vlatko Andonovski committed soccer crimes with the USWNT, his return to club coaching has seen him oversee the most aggressive chaotic and efficient attacking team in the league. This could have even been a shock without his USWNT stint, this is just not how a Vlatko team has ever played. There have been a lot of keys to it working, and one has been the renaissance of Vanessa DiBernardo (DiBernardaissance? I’ll keep workshopping).

Temwa Chawinga has been unreal, Michelle Cooper has transformed into a top tier winger, Debinha is still a terror, and 18-year-old Claire Hutton would be rookie of the year if not for the existence of Croix Bethune. But DiBernardo has excelled at the role of midfield quarterback. She’s been exceptional at consistently finding the right passes to keep Kansas City’s wave of attackers running onto passes in space. It’s not an easy job, one of the first keys to defending a side with elite attacking talent is limiting their service. DiBernardo has been excellent at making sure that rarely happens to the Current.

For North Carolina we could also focus on one of the stoutest midfields in the league with Denise O’Sullivan and Narumi Miura. The pair complement one another extremely well and are two of the best in the league. We could also look at the center back pairing, Kaleigh Kurtz and Malia Berkely have formed one of the best defensive partnerships in the league as well. Obviously there’s also Ashley Sanchez, who had to become a relied upon creator for a brand new team after a difficult summer and offseason. She responded by having her best statistical season yet.

With respect to everyone I named I must use this tiny corner of the internet I’ve claimed to talk about and spread my Ryan Williams agenda.

Williams has been absurd defensively. She leads all fullbacks (min. 1800 minutes) in percentage of times she successfully wins a duel versus being dribbled past (82%), is second in possession adjusted (PAdj) tackles & interceptions (6.8/90), and first by far in PAdj pressures (20.57/90).

But she’s also not been purely a defensive fullback. She also leads the group in deep progression—passes and dribbles into the opponent’s final third—with 6.55/90. It’s also not her fault she doesn’t have an assist, look at the areas she gets into and the location (and xG) of the shots she creates.

Williams’ crosses created twenty shots at .11 xG per shot, for a combined total of 2.12 xG. In another year, or in a season in which Kerolin plays, several of these become goals.

ok cool whatever nerd how is the game actually gonna go

Sorry there will be more nerd shit here because this matchup is one of the most tactically intriguing of the round. The Current and Courage sit at completely opposite ends of the pace towards goal chart, which measures the speed of buildup for possessions that end in a shot by tracking the ball in meters per second. (For reasons of what the fuck is a kilometer, 1 meter is 1.09 yards.)

Ignore Chicago, this is a result of their ‘oh no we have the ball quick punt it to Mal’ offense. Of teams that aren’t afraid of the ball, the Current move it toward goal at the most aggressive pace in the league. They’ve discovered the neat trick of giving their overwhelming attack lots of possessions, and it often leads to lots of goals.

The Courage do not partake in such heresy. They want the ball, they cherish the ball, they don’t want to give it back, it is safest with them. Plus, despite Ashley Sanchez hoopin, without Kerolin the Courage don’t have anywhere near the caliber or quality of wide attacking talent that Kansas City relies on. As a result they’re forced to be more patient, and work to craft quality chances at goal.

One thing that could help the Courage is integrating Cortnee Vine, who came over after the Olympics, and starting Olivia Wingate over Tyler Lussi.

The sample size for Wingate is much smaller since she missed most of the season due to injury, but she’s a natural attacking talent who possesses a dash of the sauce. When Wingate is on the pitch she’s a more dynamic 1v1 player, more consistent box presence, and better shooter and creator from open play.

If the Courage are going to have success against Kansas City they’ll need to use their possession as defense, play a conservative game, and be clinical when they create chances. During the regular season being clinical wasn’t a strong suit, but with the right personnel there’s a chance they can constrict the game for stretches of time. If they can add a goal or two after a couple of those moments it will put pressure on Kansas City, who aren’t used to having to maximize a limited number of chances.

prediction

This game will be fascinating for the sickos and woso nerds. Tactically, it’s exactly what you want in a tense, winner-take-all matchup. However, it can quickly become an ‘ah, well, nevertheless’ situation if Kansas City score early—which is exactly what I expect lol. In both their previous matchups this season the Courage were able to keep the Current off the scoreboard for the first half, but KC still put up over 2.0 xG in each game. Kansas City know what to expect, and will be motivated make their lives easier by capitalizing early.

The nerds (myself included) will have to be ok with the theory of what this match could have been, but Kansas City scores early and squashes the intrigue. I’ve got the Current winning a bit of a scrappy one 2-0, with both goals early in each half.

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