nwsl decision day: what, whomst and when to watch

The final day of the NWSL regular season is back to simultaneous kickoffs (sorta) with a lot still to be decided. Every game will kick off this Sunday, November 2, with just one game scheduled to start at 3pm ET, and be finished before every other team gets their games underway at 5:15. Here’s what the full schedule looks like:

Some of the maximum chaos scenarios evaded us, but there’s still plenty to try and keep track of, so I put together a handy little guide. From playoff battles to the golden boot race, here’s what and whomst to watch.

the lone playoff scrap is a banger

In the weeks leading up to the final matchday of the season there was a possibility for multiple teams to be tied on 33 points. We didn’t get that scenario, and thanks/no thanks to other results only one playoff spot is actually up for grabs. But it’s an important one, and given each team’s final match, you’ll want to be tracking both.

The situation here is simple. If Louisville win, game over, they’re the final playoff team. If they lose, North Carolina has to win to jump them and take the final spot. If Louisville draw and North Carolina win they’d be tied on 35 points, but Rahsing’s -4 goal differential would see them drop below the Courage (-3).

Rahsing: Louisville has the much easier game on paper. Bay FC are not only second from the bottom of the table, they know their head coach is moving on after the final whistle, and they’re giving up the fifth most expected goals (1.56 per 96 minutes) since the summer break. But Louisville not only has the psychological aspect to cope with — they’ve finished 9th every year of their existence — they’re giving up an even worse 1.72 xG/96 since the break (second most in the league). Lucky for them the only thing Bay FC love doing more than conceding quality chances is missing big chances of their own.

Courage: North Carolina have the unenviable job of desperately needing a win in their final match of the regular season against an ultra stingy defense with a ferocious press and desperate need for three points themselves. Since the break Gotham are only conceding .74 xG/96, the best in the NWSL’s non-Kansas City division. Working in the Courage’s favor is that they’re fourth in xG per 96 allowed (1.18), and since the break have managed to climb to third in expected goals per 96, with 1.5.

The Courage also have genuine MVP candidate Manaka Matsukubo, who should be on everyone’s shortest of shortlists for the award. Matsukubo’s 10 goals and 4 assists place her only behind Temwa Chawinga (15 goals, 3 assists) in total direct goal contributions. It’s no fluke either, Matsukubo has 9.27 expected goals on the season, and 3.74 expected assists. She’s been unreal, and they’ll need her to be every bit of that against Gotham.

two home playoff games up for grabs

Ok now we’re talkin. This is the real scrap to pay attention to. Kansas City Current lifted the NWSL Shield approximately 900 games ago so as long as they keep winning the road to the championship match in San Jose goes through CPKC Stadium. Washington Spirit joined them by securing the #2 spot, but the third and fourth slots are wide open.

All it takes is an upset of the Current or Spirit for the teams finishing third or fourth to host a semifinal. But before any of that, the benefit of not having to travel ahead of a quick turnaround into a win-or-thassit quarterfinal is the more immediate prize. Especially for Seattle, San Diego and Gotham, who will all already be on the road.

Orlando: The Pride went through a wild stretch of being bad and not scoring goals so it’s a bit wild to find them in the best position here. Winning against Seattle would secure the third spot, but anything less makes things a lot less certain. A draw would put them on 40 points (Seattle, 39), and San Diego and/or Portland could match them with a win. San Diego would have the goal differential advantage and take the spot, while a 1-0 win for Portland would make things wacky since the teams would be even on goal difference. According to the NWSL’s website, tiebreakers after goal differential are:

Seattle: Reign are another team living a rather charmed life (especially after HarvsGPT-gate). Beating Orlando locks the Reign into third place, but anything else would once again make things weird. A draw makes them vulnerable to Portland and San Diego, and even Gotham from 7th since the Batties have a +11 goal differential to Seattle’s +3. Losing leaves them open to be leapfrogged by everyone currently in a playoff position below them (except North Carolina, if they get in over Louisville).

Portland & San Diego: They’re on the same number of points and are only separated by San Diego’s three goal advantage in goal difference, +8 to +5. The trouble for San Diego is that they play Kansas City, who will be without Temwa Chawinga but are still loaded, and have Mr. No-Days-Off Andonovski at the helm. Portland face Houston who keep giving up a shit ton of shots in the box, and have Olivia Moultrie who is scoring for funsies for club and country. The three goals between them could easily be made up if Houston are on that ‘1-2-3 Cancun’ type shit.

Both teams really need three points to have a chance. With Orlando and Seattle facing each other, one or both will drop points. Getting to 40 unlocks multiple chaos scenarios, particularly if the Pride and Reign play to a draw.

Gotham: New Jersey to North Carolina isn’t tough travel-wise, but if Gotham can manage to get to 39 points they’ll have a chance at not having to immediately book a flight to Seattle, Portland, or San Diego. Louisville would also owe them an edible arrangement.

whomst wants the golden boot

With Esther listed as out for the final match of the season, The Inevitable Temwa Chawinga (who will also miss the final regular season game)as all but secured her second consecutive golden boot. The top two goalscorers being out is #ungood for the league, and whatever delights a last day golden boot chase could’ve had for us.

Five goal games have happened in the history of the sport, but not the NWSL — yet. Sam Kerr, Kristen Hamilton and Alex Morgan have scored four in one, but no one has had five. But for two of the three on ten goals, even a historic never-been-seen-before five goal outburst wouldn’t be enough. The first tiebreaker is assists, and Ludmila is two behind Chawinga’s three, and Sears one behind Matsukubo is equal with Chawinga on assists, but the second tiebreaker is fewest minutes played, and only Ludmila is currently under Chawinga’s minutes total (by 7 minutes according to ASA).

So if you want a golden boot race Manaka Matsukubo is your only hope. Even at that you’re gonna need her to drop at least a five goal + one assist performance against a Gotham team that allows the second fewest non-penalty xG per 90 (.88). What I’m saying is Temwa Chawinga is inevitable, unreal, and should be getting all the accolades and acknowledgment that Sam Kerr was getting when she was terrorizing the league.

i’m making the nwsl playmaker of the season award a thing

Ok so this isn’t an actual award the league gives out but they should. It’d spotlight the player with the most assists in the season, and this season that battle is much more than the golden boot. So at the very least beyond the vaudevillian cane will be recognizing the top assister of 2025, and whomstever wins will be able to hit one of the most vicious ‘you’ll never thing that’s ever.

Anyway, Delphine Cascarino (Wavé) and Izzy Rodriguez (Current) are tied with 6 apiece, with Janine Sonis (Rahsing), Gisele Thompson (Angel City), Hailie Mace (Current), and Alyssa Malonson (Bay) all on 5. There are also a whole six (6!) players with four assists who would could snatch the crown with an improbable but not impossible maître d' hat trick.

Cascarino and Rodriguez will face each other in the 3pm match before everyone else kicks off at 5:15. If neither cements the top mark, the four players on five will know what they have to do to earn the coveted btvc head nod of immense respect.

happy nwsl’ing

After this bout of chaos is all settled, the playoffs will begin. We’re in the chaos now, and there is no escape. Stay hydrated, organize your list of deities to pray to, and I’ll see you on the other side.