Fourteen teams played 26-game schedules over the course of eight’ish months, then hurled the best finishing 8 immediately into a playoff. Now we have one final game to conclude the season and crown a champion. It’s been: a lot.

Despite Kansas City’s historic season, they aren’t here. And despite Orlando doing an ultra rare NWSL Shield + Championship double last season, neither are they. Instead we have two teams—Washington Spirit and Gotham FC—who’ve been building all season, and approaching the best versions of themselves.

While soccer is a team game that requires a lot of organization and telepathic understanding between players, a successful team performance is typically made up of individual players (or small group of players) winning games within the game. I’m going to look at a few of the matchups that could determine who lifts the trophy.

These two teams have the lowest passes (allowed) per defensive action (PPDA) in the league. This statistic is a fairly reliable metric of a team’s pressing intensity, and while their crests are close enough to hold hands, not all presses are the same.

Gotham are more of a front foot pressing team. They like having the ball and will press to get it back, but they really, truly, genuinely, to their very core hate when you have the ball. They deploy their ‘organized chaos’ to try and make the opposition as miserable as possible in possession.

The Spirit do something similar but typically because they want the ball back. They like to control games by keeping the ball and dictating the tempo of games. In the first half of their quarterfinal win over Louisville they had 74% possession, and in the first half against the Thorns they had 60%.

Gotham won’t be comfortable with the Spirit having the ball and the Spirit won’t be comfortable without it. Ready, set, scrap.

One of the Spirit’s primary methods of attack has been getting the ball into space along the channels. This is where Rose Kouassi has done her most damaging work, and has looked like a genuine superstar this postseason. She has assisted Gift Monday for a goal in each round of the playoffs so far, and has been able to do so by being a pure menace 1v1.

Therefore, Gotham will likely breathe a sigh of relief that left back (and Rookie of the Year), Lilly Reale, wasn’t on the availability report after being subbed off with an injury in their semifinal.

Reale has taken to Gotham’s style well, and is athletic and skillful enough to handle the demand of intense work out of possession, plus quality positioning and passing in possession.

The individual scrap between Kouassi and Reale will be important, but what’s happening on both flanks will be key. Gotham are intent on making the pitch seem like a phone booth to the opposition, and will commit numbers to the cause to focus on the ball carrier. In their final regular season game against North Carolina, this routine got them ate up in a way they hadn’t been eaten up all season.

This is a screenshot of the Courage’s first goal (of three). Manaka Matsukubo dropped into space between the midfield and defense at the right time to receive a pass and turn, this triggered wide runs from wingers Payton Linnehan (right) and Meredith Speck (left). Matsukubo threaded the ball quickly behind the line, Linnehan caught up to it and slid it across the box where Gotham’s over-rotation left Speck crashing in on the goalkeeper unopposed.

The Courage attacked Gotham like this all game. The counter for Gotham is to not let the pass before the assist exist in the first place. If they’re able to get immediate pressure on a player dropping between their lines, then wide runners won’t matter. With the Spirit liking to get Kouassi into space in similar ways, the scrap to negate or attack width will likely determine how dangerous she and the Spirit can be.

Let’s get real soccer nerdy shall we? Zone 14 is a cherished zone on the pitch in attack, and area defenses need to build an airtight fortress. It is smack in the middle of the pitch and closest to the box without being in it.

Gotham, especially after the addition of Jaedyn Shaw, love attacking this area. Shaw and Rose Lavelle will make passes or runs (with or without the ball) into this space a lot. In fact, one of their first linkups came from the pair attacking the space at the same time — Shaw to receive then pass, Lavelle to run then receive. The Spirit’s defensive midfielder(s) plus central defenders will have to constantly be aware of the space and how two of the most creative players in the league (Shaw and Lavelle) are choosing to attack it.

Now that I’ve done enough of the nerdy stuff, it’s time to Proper Football Man it up and say “Whoever gets the ball in the back of the net most will in mate.”

It’s slightly more interesting than that though. For all the Spirit’s ball dominance and chance creation in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they’re still missing the crucial final pass or shot. While their combined xG from the first rounds was a juicy 4.47, they scored three goals. That’s not horrendous, it’s also not the full story. Only one of those goals was the result of possession and buildup, one was a 70-yard counter off a corner created purely by Kouassi’s speed, and another a gift to Croix Bethune from Portland center back Sam Hiatt.

Obvs in the playoffs it doesn’t matter how the goals get in the net, but the inability to capitalize on good positions and opportunities has made both games more tense than their level of dominance suggested. Gotham is a team that can punish missed chances by finding the back of the net on their own — well, sometimes.

I’m not quite sure what Gotham were up to in their semifinal match against Orlando but they had one of lowest xG outputs (.17) of the entire season. However, they’re also skilled at generating goals from a variety of situations. Their match winner against Kansas City was from a free kick delivered from their goalkeeper in their own half, and was flicked behind the defense for a game winning strike. Against Orlando, Jaedyn Shaw used a bit of technique and trickery to freeze the goalkeeper with a wicked free kick delivery, finding the side netting from a whipped in service that bounced in front of the keeper and in.

If neither team can find a way to generate and capitalize on normal’ish opportunities — as has been the case for both this postseason — then expect them to be separated by something weird.

Lol no.