championship preview: orlando pride vs. washington spirit

Editor’s Note: I didn’t wanna spam y’all so held off on sending my ‘several things from pride v. current iii’ piece, but you can read that here. It’s a look at the game’s xG race chart and pass networks, along with me returning to my roots and gushing about extremely good soccer players doing extremely good soccer things, using GIFs as evidence. Alright, now onto the championship preview.

Ok it all quite literally comes down to this. Despite injuries and a late (possibly hangover-related) dip to lose an undefeated season, these have been the two most consistent teams all season. The table says so, with Orlando sitting at the top and having lifted the NWSL Shield, while the Spirit sit just below. Fun fact: Kansas City led the league in regular season xG & xG conceded per 90, but in reality let in more goals that both—three more than the Spirit, eleven more than Orlando.

Anyway, after the highs of two exceptional semifinals we now have a tasty championship game that feels like a third dessert. I love this for us, bring on the cavities.

matchup

Having Barbra Banda for the majority of the season will do this for ya. Statistically, Orlando Pride’s attack overall has been better. They lead Washington in xG, xG per shot, shots taken, and have a massive advantage in set piece xG (all stats per 90). Their set piece xG might deserve particular attention, as the Spirit’s most consistent defensive weakness has been set piece defending. (This was also true against Gotham and then Hal Hershfelt equalized in the 93rd minute from a set piece, so.)

The Washington Spirit, as we have become accustomed to with these previews, lead yet another opponent in counterattacking and clear shots. Basically, they are the craftiest transition team in the league. Though, Croix Bethune’s self-proclaimed ‘cheekiness” and ten assists—which they won’t be able to call on again until 2025—were certainly part of that. And this is where we delve into sad boy hours about the attacking talent and games lost due to injury this season for the Spirit.

Croix Bethune, Ouleye Sarr and Trinity Rodman each missed, or are still missing, substantial time during the season. Sarr hasn’t played since September 7 due to a back injury, the damn Washington Nationals pitching mound put Bethune on the SEI list since late August, and Trinity Rodman missed several games with a reaggravated and very painful-looking back injury September 20th against Kansas City. If you have any spare backs and/or knees, please send them to Audi Field so this does not happen next year.

Taking a look at defensive numbers though, things flip around in favor of the Spirit—kinda. Orlando Pride, along with Gotham, allowed the fewest goals during the 26-game regular season (20). The wild stat here is that the Pride racked up thirteen clean sheets, that’s right, straight up 50% of their games during the regular season.

Still, it’s a bit interesting that the Washington Spirit are ahead in every statistical defensive category except xG per shot (.08/.09) and set piece xG conceded (.19/.23). The standout stat here is not just Orlando having low defensive aggression numbers—proportion of an opponent's pass receipts that are tackled, fouled or pressured within two seconds)—in comparison with Washington, but how low they are compared to the rest of the league. In this metric the Pride are second from the bottom, only .02 above the Chicago Red *Tsars and their low block approach. (*not a typo, it’s a whole thing)

This is reflected in the passes per defensive action metric too, which measures the intensity of a press by identifying how many passes a team allows the opponent before making a defensive action (tackle, interception, foul). The Pride had the third least intense press of the regular season, allowing 10.5 passes per defensive action. The number suggests a similar standoffish approach to Chicago (12.06) and Seattle Reign (10.8)—two ultra defensive, very boring teams in 2024.

This is kinda shocking to me and I don’t know if I’ve fully wrapped my head around it. Because what’s really breaking my brain is that the Pride were literally second in the league in high press shots per 90 (4.5), which are shots generated from possessions that were won within five seconds of a defensive action. It’s like some Anchorman Brian Fantana math shit, “60% of the time it works every time.” The Pride basically set themselves up to pull multiple ‘call the ambulance but not for me’ sequences every game, and they work, often, to devastating effect.

This is all probably why the Pride have been so difficult to figure out. They’ve shown tremendous discipline to avoid being baited or drawn out, they’re patient, organized and compact, and whenever they feel the time is right to jump out, they win the ball and go get shots off. How do they decide when the time is right? I don’t know but my first guess is sonar. Second: telepathy. Third: really good coaching.

previously on…

Washington dismantled Gotham’s press in a way we haven’t seen all season. Gotham don’t allow pass networks as connected as this, and in return theirs was extremely Fran Alonso’ian. That’s ungood. Part of the problem was the Spirit making Gotham defend the width of the pitch by routinely finding Rose Kouassi and Trinity Rodman in wide areas, who were ready and eager to square up 1v1. Gotham absolutely did not like that shit and it showed.

Orlando, meanwhile, handled their 2024 season foe, the Kansas City Current, quite well (again). They remained in their mid-block but with plenty of numbers in the defensive half, and, as usual, compact. Haley McCutcheon essentially hung out between the center backs to fill central space, while Adriana and Angelina sat just above, ready to carry the ball forward once it was won.

Where Orlando really wrecked the Current is in forcing them to become one-dimensional (kick the ball to Temwa Chawinga), while the Pride kept options in attack. Banda is the most advanced player in the pass network, but Ally Watt was also near the attacking third, just much wider. Also, just below Banda, was Marta. In attack this gave the Pride multiple central options, plus a wide option, in which to progress the ball and enter the attacking third. Probably no surprise that the team that expertly absorbs pressure and springs forward got goals from Banda and Marta, and an assist from Watt.

scraps within the scrap

Not gonna be cute here or try to be all hipster, it’s Barbra Banda versus every Spirit player who happens to be nearby. The Spirit’s first introduction to Banda was one they would probably want the well-monied Y. Michele Kang to scrub from the internet. Banda hit them for what’s been dubbed the ‘stat trick’—goal, assist, and penalty won. The second match was tougher, but Banda drew yet another penalty on the Spirit in that one too.

Throughout the season this Spirit team has continued to show tremendous resilience. They’ve scored the most goals in the league after the 85th minute (13), but have also endured a slew of injuries to key players. Just when it looks like they’ve surely suffered one injury too many, Ashley Hatch turns back the clock, Makenna Morris goes supernova, Rose Kouassi does an excellent Trinity Rodman impression, and, now, Hal Hershfelt becomes one of the best defensive midfielders in the league.

This radar reflects the 6.3 90s Hershfelt has played (playoffs included) since Andi Sullivan tore her ACL on October 6th. Since then Hershfelt has taken on the role of (often lone) defensive midfielder, and has been an absolute menace to all opposition.

The Spirit midfield was not supposed to be this, but it’s working, and a lot of that is the result of Hershfelt’s unreal performances. During this stretch she’s posting 6.21 possession adjusted (PAdj) tackles & interceptions per 90 (96th percentile), and 80 Tack/Dribbled Past% (percentage of times a player makes a tackle when engaging in a duel versus being dribbled past; 95th percentile). She recently talked about how she identified with the ‘dawg mentality’, and well, water: wet, sun: hot, Halle Berry: pretty.

Hershfelt missed the Spirit’s second game versus Orlando due to yellow card accumulation, which impacted how reserved the Spirit had to be in defense. If she can hold her own as she has done against everyone else, the Spirit will have more options in how to defend and attack the Pride.

One of the primary battles to watch on the pitch will be matchups in the wide spaces. Fullbacks Kerry Abello and Cori Dyke will have to be at their best to shut the Spirit wide players down. Abello has been solid all season, using more positioning and timing to disrupt wide connections. And in possession she’s been more dangerous progressing the ball through, particularly through carries.

Dyke is another rookie, like Hershfelt, whose xDawg is off at the top of the scale. In her first season in this league, with all the dangerous attacking players it presents week after week, Dyke is putting up an 81 Tack/Dribbled Past% (91st percentile).

Orlando typically don’t leave players as isolated as Gotham happened to against the Spirit, so Washington midfielders and fullbacks will have to be precise to get their wingers the ball in space. But those wingers are Trinity Rodman and Rose Kouassi, two of the most dangerous and direct wingers in the league.

Kouassi’s numbers are genuinely bonkers, and the fear she’s been able to strike in defenses is hilarious considering she’s yet to score a goal. The panic has largely come from her creating several extraordinarily defensively panicky moments and high quality chances through passes inside the box. In 7.7 90s played she’s delivered 15 key passes, totaling 2.85 xG, at .19 xG per shot (league average: .10), and notching two assists. The fear is extremely warranted, just ask Gotham’s fullbacks.

As for Rodman, we all know what she can do for club and country. Unfortunately Playoff Rodman has yet to arrive due to her back injury. She’s been growing in effectiveness throughout the playoffs though, and Orlando will likely face the closest to 100% version we’ve seen this postseason. At the very least Playoff Rodman’s intensity showed up after she was brought down by Bruninha, as she brandished an imaginary second yellow card in the fullback’s face.

If Rodman is good enough to conjure Playoff Rodman yet again—which she did to secure the Spirit their first NWSL Championship her rookie season (2021)—the Pride will face the same problems Gotham ran into. How their fullbacks cope could be the difference in the game.

prediction

These teams are legit fascinating, and it makes analyzing this matchup a lot more complex. Even outside of the stats and deeper numbers, the Spirit are missing a lot of talent that could be quite useful when playing the best team in the league in a championship game. Still, somehow, the Spirit have been impossible to kill. Banda and Marta have been an absurd and impossible-to-defend combo all season, and both have been at their most inevitable in these playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, two game sample sizes don’t offer the most comprehensive of data sets but I think these radars fairly accurately depict what we should expect.

Both teams have taken opposite paths to the ‘ship. Orlando has done so with a shit ton of terrific attacking play, scoring 3+ goals in both their playoff matchups. The Spirit press has been cookin and getting them shots, but ultimately they’ve relied on their defense to disrupt, slow down, or straight up dismantle opposition attacks. Sports talking heads like to claim that defense win championships, but we’re also in an era where overwhelming offenses continue to prove that wrong. What are Banda and Marta if not overwhelming?

It’s tough and there will be some pain felt, but Washington are ahead of schedule while Orlando’s been building toward this, and are presently closer to their peak than the Spirit. Pride win, 2-0.

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