euros quarterfinals previews + predictions: time to shed the unserious

It feels like the EUROS started three days ago but nope we are already into the knockout rounds. The relentless march of time can be so disorienting. Anywhomst, the quarterfinal round will consist of one game-per-day across four consecutive days, starting Wednesday, July 16, and all kicking off at 3pm ET.

Oddly constructed groups took some drama away from the group stage, but the payoff might be a more delectable round of quarterfinal matchups (bar one, probs). Below I reviewed each team’s path and current form (and identified an interesting trend), then dropped a prediction. Let us EUROS, expeditiously.

norway v. italy

Wednesday, July 16 @ 3pm [ViX/FOX]

Norway tried to beat the unserious allegations by winning their group with a perfect 3-0 record. On the surface, even though the group was a bit of a gift given the talent discrepancy, they appeared to have done just that.

However, the Swiss scored first and forced Norway to comeback, which they did courtesy of Ada Hegerberg and an own goal (hm). Finland also gifted them an own goal in the third minute of their matchup with Norway, then equalized thirty minutes later. Caroline Graham Hansen had to do a Caroline Graham Hansen thing in the 84th minute to snatch the win (hmm). Even their 4-3 win over Iceland was deceptive. Norway were up 4-1 before Iceland scored their second, and Iceland’s third was a very late 95th minute penalty. But comma however, the non-penalty xG was 1.51 to Iceland’s 1.49 (hmmm). Trust Norway at your own peril.

Italy, meanwhile, refused to score more than one goal in each of their games. That ended up being good enough for one win, one draw, one loss, and a quarterfinal appearance, but imo they should consider scoring a second goal. Maybe even getting a little silly with it and dropping a third just to see how it feels. To be fair, Italy have been trying. They narrowly lost the xG battle to Spain, 1.44/1.98, got soccer’d in their draw with Portugal (.32/1.25), and blew out Belgium .73/1.59. That second goal’s gotta be coming, right? Surely. Maybe?

prediction

Some of my contemporaries have decided that these Norway performances are positive, and that it is time to believe in them again. Italy is an opponent they should be able to handle relatively comfortably, giving them their first appearance in the semifinals of a major tournament since 2013. Won’t catch me slippin’ though, forza Italia.

sweden v. england

Thursday, July 17 @ 3pm [ViX/FOX]

Sweden, my nemesis (it’s a long story but it has a lot to do with this), have been cookin. Raggmunk, things of that nature. Anyway, after an unconvincing 1-0 over Denmark to start their tournament, they dropped seven over their next two, including a 4-1 dismantling of Germany.

The result against Germany was a weird one though. The Germans could have put three up on the Swedes in the first 18 minutes, but Sweden woke up, equalized, then got a wacky Soccer Gods-aided deflection to grab the lead. Carlotta Wamser’s red card for palming away a certain goal delivered Sweden a penalty and a player advantage, ending what was a wild back and forth game that was shaping up to be a classic.

The Lionesses began their tournament with a 2-1 loss to France that was an xG paddlin’, 2.34 to .87. Midfield squishiness and lack of direct threats from their other opponents allowed Sarina Wiegman’s side to bounce all the way back with ten goals scored and just one conceded. Netherlands managed just one shot on target against England’s defense, while Wales managed two, scored, and put up .61 xG to Netherlands’ .22 (pour some out for Orange Norway).

prediction

The wide variance in opposition doesn’t give me a lot to go on with what to expect from England. Their final two opponents could have given them exactly what they needed to regain the confidence and ruthlessness we’ve come to expect since their EUROS win in 2022. But Sweden seem different this tournament. Like, different different. One, they’re scoring from open play; and two, they’re doing it by spinning midfielders and getting out in transition—a lot.

I don’t particularly trust Sweden’s fullbacks, but their attack has been fun and good at causing the sort of problems England handled so poorly against France. Johanna Rytting Kaneryd ain’t nobody’s Delphine Cascarino, but I still think Sweden can make the Lionesses backline uncomfortable. If they do—and I think they will—kladdkaka for everybody.

spain v. switzerland

Friday, July 18 @ 3pm [ViX/FOX]

Switzerland squeaking out of their group in second half stoppage time was probably the moment of the group stages. Riola Xhemaili put home a first-time finish in the 93rd minute of their final group match against Finland. The strike snatched two points from the Fins to put them both on 4, but put Switzerland above by goal difference (+1 to 0). Just look at the #scenes.

@kineticacademy

93rd minute equaliser from Riola Xhemaili see’s the hosts Switzerland through to the Quarter Finals of the Women’s Euros 👏🎉 #WEuro2025 #Sw... See more

Now, barring an upset bigger than me finding out Dua Lipa is engaged to a guy who was in three Fantastic Beasts movies, bad things are likely to happen to them. Spain are top scorers in the tournament, having routed Portugal and Belgium, and scrapping to an eventually comfortable 3-1 over Italy. Alexia Putellas has been in throwback form, once again showing her range of passing, chance creation and goal scoring that is diabolical for any one footballer to have.

prediction

Spain, by an unkind amount.

france v. germany

Saturday, July 19 @ 3pm [ViX/FOX]

I’ve been waiting for this France for, approximately, seven-hundred years. Unfortunately they squandered their previous generation, and have recently come so very close to making it back-to-back squanderings. They still might tbh, they’re perennial quarterfinalists who seemingly refuse to take the next step, but this France feels different. The stank of Corinne Diacre has fully wafted away, and while new coach Laurent Bonadei has made some wild boi decisions, he has them in their NWSL era—and it’s working.

Germany haven’t been as free-scoring as France but their chance generation has been consistent and impressive. Against Poland and Denmark they put up matching 2.77 total xG, and though the result against Sweden was quite stinky, the bulk of their .97 xG came in the first twenty minutes of the match, ten minutes before a silly red card forced them to downshift significantly.

After decades of tut-tutting transitional soccer it seems there’s a bit of a revolution happening across Europe’s most talented teams. Sweden has turned to the Church of Vroom to break free from their reliance on set pieces, while France and Germany have become believers as well. Opta data reveals that teams this tournament have combined for forty shots from fast breaks, with France leading the way with five (only 5 teams are averaging under 1 fast break shot per game - Wales, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, England). Also, according to FBref, nations in the 2022 EUROS combined to complete 66 throughballs all tournament. At the end of the group stage in 2025 teams have already completed 76. [Opta data courtesy of Catalina Bush]

For France and Germany this has led to dubs, high xG outputs, lots of goals, plus Delphine Cascarino and Jule Brand on the shortlist for player of the tournament (even if neither can see the sun due to shadows being cast by Esther and Alexia Putellas). Embrace the vroom.

prediction

Sweden/England will be billed as the premier quarterfinal matchup but real sickos know France/Germany is the good shit. Despite the variance in record (3-0-0/2-0-1) and goals scored (11/5), the two are close in non-penalty xG per 90 (2.14/1.91) as well as non-penalty xG conceded (1.0/1.27). Opposition faced can alter what this actually means, but still we’re looking at two fairly even teams when at full strength.

Germany not having Lena Oberdorf available for the tournament was most harshly felt against Sweden, as was the loss of Giulia Gwinn due to an MCL injury in their second round match against Poland. This could mean Germany already know they shouldn’t try to run with France, even if a Jule Brand and/or Klara Bühl heater is their best chance to keep France from steamrolling into the final third early and often. The risk is, like against Sweden, a couple early misfires could open the door for France’s goal-happy bunch—whose nine scorers are tied with Spain for the most so far.

Yes dear reader, I am very much stalling. Eff it, Baguette Gotham FC to the semifinals.