5 very early NWSL observations

All but two teams have completed five of their twenty-four regular season matches (Gotham and San Diego, 4) so what better time to review some very early trends. Five, or four, games might not be a lot but some patterns are already repeating and starting to stand out.

Some of these trends are leading to teams cookin (or not) or players hoopin (or not), and some data may help us find out why (or why not). So here are five observations important enough for me to feel secure in transmitting them through semi-coherent sentences, to exist on the internet until mankind’s eventual end.

1) Who is this “Vlatko” “Andonovski”? I do not know him

Honestly, just who in the hell is this man? His Kansas City Current team have scored 17 goals in five games. That’s right, the man who ‘played for a draw’ in the World Cup against Portugal, and who once did the same disgustingly boring shit versus Australia at the last Olympics when the country set alarms at ungodly hours to watch, is letting his team run wild.

And the absurd thing is that it’s real, it’s not just a streak of clinical finishing or lucky goals. The Current lead the NWSL with 1.9xG per 90, and a total xG of 9.48.

The biggest surprise about this “Vlatko” person, if that is his real name, isn’t even the free scoring record, it’s that he seems fine getting into shootouts. The Current have let in ten goals, and only four other teams have cracked double digits (of those four, the highest on the table is 8th). They’ve only played one game with a combined goal tally of less than three, and have already experienced matches with 9, 7, and 6 total goals. WHO IS THIS GUY!?

The USWNT Vlatko we came to know and loathe prized control and boringness over everything else in his national team stint, despite quite literally having a golden generation of attacking talent to call upon. I’m sure he prefers conceding fewer goals, but the Vlatko we know wouldn’t have stood for all this free scoring razzle dazzle with a leaky defense.

Whomst is this guy? Someone tell me I demand to know.

While the individual pieces make a lot of sense as to why the Current are atop the league and scoring for fun, they’ve had talented squads before, and have managed to finish near the bottom of the table. Suddenly, whoever this imposter Vlatko is must have found the ‘How To Coach’ notebook the real one lost prior to taking the USWNT job. Good for him, whoever he may be.

2) Croix Mf’n Bethune

Mock drafts were nearly impossible to put together given that the college players had until a couple days before the draft to register their eligibility. Still, there wasn’t a single player who could have declared that would have bumped Croix Bethune from topping my theoretical draft board.

Bethune has started her professional career with three goals in her first five games. Beyond the surface level fact of ‘3 goals in 5 games’, the most impressive bit lies in the variety of each goal. One was a mazy dribble through the backline, another a ghosting in at the far post, and the most recent was an outside of the box blast.

Her filthy setup and strike against Gotham was the sharpest sign yet that all of Bethune’s skills have been unpacked, and can translate to the professional level in the same devastating way.

The primary question mark about Bethune was her list of injuries and ability to stay injury-free in one of the toughest and most physical leagues. While that question can’t be answered in five games, on the pitch Bethune has been everything her college career promised she could be.

3) Is it time to have a conversation about Harvs?

The SufferBall is surely sufferin’. Sure, losing Megan Rapinoe, Rose Lavelle and Emily Sonnett will be tough for any team to recover from, but Harvey’s adjustment has leaned into an even more seemingly scared approach. While that makes sense on some level – they don’t have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with most teams – results are revealing it to be a poor decision.

NWSL games are extremely hard to control for all 90 (+10min of stoppage time), so teams have to have threats on the pitch to respond when things get chaotic, or to {gasp} take the initiative from the start. The only game the Reign were able to control was their opener, when a new look Washington Spirit conceded a penalty in the first minute, forced into an injury sub in the first half, and never recovered.

Since, the Reign have lost four straight games, each by a single goal. This is the soccer gods dropping burning bush level hints that the SufferBall must cease, it does not honor god.

Part of the problem has been Harvey’s reluctance to play her most creative attackers. The Reign had a sneaky good draft, but so far Sam Meza and Maddie Mercado have played a combined 0 minutes. McKenzie Weinert has played thirteen minutes, and veteran attacker Tziarra King has only played 36 minutes. King’s ‘goal of the week’ strike was seemingly belted with technique and frustration, and was yet another deliberate sign from the gods.

Harvey’s attempt to control matches isn’t working, so they gotta fight back, and right now she’s making the team do so with an arm behind their back and both shoes tied together. The Reign might never cook enough to get back to their usual penthouse suite near the top of the table, but they can surely do better than 13th and .85xG per 90.

4) North Carolina need a hero, or just a consistent goalscorer

Which, for their purposes, would be the same thing. Though the playoffs expand this year, points will surely be crucial once we get to the end of the regular season. This is still the ‘anybody can get it’ league, and last year Orlando missed out by just a point, to Gotham, who finished ahead by a point and went on to win the NWSL Championship.

That being said, North Carolina have already lost twice from games they accrued a combined 5.19xG, but scored just a goal apiece in each game. Though each scoreline ended 2-1 with the Courage narrowly missing picking up a point, they had enough opportunities to have grabbed all six points from one or both games.

These games will happen to every team, but unless the Courage can develop or find a consistent goalscorer, they’re vulnerable to these sorts of annoying results repeating throughout the season.

North Carolina leads the whole entire league in the percentage of passess being crosses into the box. That’s not a terrible thing, but the company they’re keeping with that number aren’t exactly teams that are known as free-flowing or high-scoring (Angel City, Utah).

More variation in the Courage’s attack could help, especially since all this crossing isn’t really paying off in terms of expected goals, with their open play xG sitting at a very middle of the pack 1.04. While the Courage tend to hit more cutback and low crosses, they’re still having a hard time getting the ball and player to meet in space at the right moments.

That could just be rust, or it could be that scoring in this way isn’t a strong suit for the attackers they’re relying on. Last game Tyler Lussi had two great chances, including a free shot at the back post. Though she eventually got a goal, missing those high xG chances is becoming a norm for her and the team.

While their open play shot map looks pretty good, with a lot of shots inside the box and within the width of the six-yard box, there are loads of blocked shots. This suggests defenses are onto the way they want to generate chances, and will need either a crafty box presence who can score anyway (a player profile not available to them at the moment), or easing up on the crossing in favor of other routes to goal.

5) Houston I do not understand you, like at all

The Dash seem to be confused about who they are and what they want to be. This hasn’t only been revealing in their on-pitch performances over the last few years, but also front office decisions.

How does one team sign a 33-yr-old forward with a history of underperforming in the final third to a three-year contract, then make the extremely clever and good decision to sign Tarciane from Corinthians. How can one person make both decisions over a handful of weeks? No idea when Alex Singer’s birthday is, but this is some true gemini shit.

It’s the same when selecting a coach too. The one-time high-flying, fun Dash were turned into one of the worst attacking teams the league had ever seen under Sam Laity. Then he goes out, Fran Alonso comes in, and no one knows exactly what he’s doing. María Sánchez was a wingback, Courtney Petersen was a right center back, and Diana Ordóñez is an attacking midfielder.

Sánchez eventually demanded, and miraculously got, a deadline day transfer out of Houston just months after signing what was then the largest contract in NWSL history (since beaten several times by Mallory Swanson and Sophia Smith).

Still, Houston has been such a weird and bad team that the eye test and the data both do the Rocky/Apollo handshake GIF when assessing this squad. They’re dead last in xG per 90 with .63, and first (read: worst) in open play xG conceded, 1.88.

They also lead the league in average distance of shots, averaging 20 yards per shot. I love me some bangers but this is a sign of a disorganized attack. I know what you’re thinking, how many of these were frustration strikes from Sánchez, and the answer is just three (but also yes the one near the halfway line is indeed hers lol).

While Houston had to endure the embarrassment of their star player wanting out so soon after committing long-term, in terms of cap space it may have done them a favor. They very clearly need to reset, find a viable plan, and to stop being weird. Houston also needed actual defenders, and managed to get Paige Nielsen and Tarciane in the fold ahead of the deadline.

If Fran Alonso can’t turn it around or find an actual style of play that works in the NWSL, the Dash shouldn’t be afraid to find a replacement. Their next set of decisions will be crucial for the future of the club. Let’s hope they make more ‘Tarciane’ type decisions, and less ‘Ramona Bachmann in this the year of our Lord, 2024’ decisions.

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