2025 nwsl week 15: xG race charts & g+ pass networks

NWSL marketing overlords would like me to refer to this as Rivalry Week™. They would like you to become invested in the storylines they have decided are ripe for rivalry. And as much as I high key like ‘District vs. Empire’, most of the matches didn’t live up to the fireworks promised when ‘These Teams HATE Each Other’ is promised.

The entire concept was saved by the NWSL’s oldest, and actual hate-filled rivalry, Portland vs. Seattle. I don’t mind a clever framing of unfolding storylines or intrigue (like, eventually I think the California teams will get there), but it’s best to let these things happen organically rather than promising a thing that carries a particular expectation and not being able to deliver.

Anywhomst, it was still a fun week that was slightly overshadowed by the marketing machine. Rahsing Lousiville continued to annoy the Orlando Pride, Utah picked up the two biggest moral victories of the season, and somehow Bay FC momentarily turned Shea Groom into Marta. Here it all is, in spiffy xG race charts and goals added (g+) passing & receiving networks.

but first, an explainer

The xG charts are straightforward, but the pass networks include custom data from American Soccer Analysis in order to spotlight passing and receiving impact. These are measured using ASA’s goals added (g+) metric, which calculates how much each touch—in this case passing & receiving—changes their team’s chances of scoring and conceding across two possessions.

(If you want to fully nerd out, here’s a deep dive into the methodology of g+.)

• Player bubble position: Average passing position

• Player bubble size: Passes attempted

• Player bubble color: Passing g+ rating

  • Passing g+: Pass value added (according to xPass)

• Ring color: Receiving g+ rating

  • Receiving g+: Pass value added through reception

• Lines: Pass volume between players

Week 15

A multitude of factors led to this L for the Courage. One, them being weird as hell about firing their coach, putting pressure on the players and interim head coach to give answers postgame. But on the pitch the factors were—same as it ever was—a lack of quality chance creation and subpar finishing.

Aside from the penalty, which is the bulk of their xG, the Courage had just two other shots above average value. Ryan Williams missed an early big chance, and Ashley Sanchez missed a lesser chance late. Meanwhile, Kiki Van Zanten hit an absolute banger before the Sophie Schmidt Goal Machine got cranked up again to give Houston all three points.

houston dash

Frustratingly, this match ended up being the hesitant stalemate I would’ve predicted had Sean Nahas been on the touchline. I’m not sure what this is, but it isn’t great. Delanie Sheehan had a standout game, and Yazmeen Ryan found ways to be dangerous even if her shooting boots were nowhere to be found. But this is real wonky, and just like the team Dash head coach Fabrice Gautraut came from: too cautious on midfield and lacking verticality in central areas.

north carolina courage

In the games interim head coach Nathan Thackeray took over before the summer break, he started Cortnee Vine to give the team a vertical, get-in-behind threat. For some reason, this time he turned to Hannah Betfort, who doesn’t have the speed to make those threatening runs. As a result, Betfort and Jaedyn Shaw shared an average passing location on the edge of the center circle, and North Carolina looked quite familiar.

In attack, just five of their non-penalty shots came from defenders or Denise O’Sullivan. Jaedyn Shaw’s lone shot came in the 5th minute, Manaka Matsukubo didn’t shoot until 90+3, and Ashley Sanchez became the attacker with the most shots taken despite entering the match in the 65th minute.

Gotta be honest, I know we’re heavy into participation trophy and moral victory territory here but Utah managing to keep the Pride and Current goalless in the first half is impressive.

Last week Utah kept Orlando to just 1.19 xG, and this week held Kansas City to under 1.0 xG in a match for the first time since Seattle Reign did the same May 2nd—which are the only two times this has happened all season. Yes, The Inevitable Temwa ensured they wouldn’t get any points for it, but it’s impressive nonetheless.

However, there’s often a galvanizing effect that can alter a team’s approach and commitment when facing ‘us against the world’/’no one believes in us’ scenarios. So while these are probably the two most positive Ls of the season, let’s see if they can replicate their defensive solidity against other competition (while finding ways to generate chances of their own).

utah royals

Paige Monaghan played the ‘lone vertical outlet’ role surprisingly well against a tough opponent. The rest was pretty standard ‘defend for your life against the best attack in the league’ stuff.

kansas city current

This is surprisingly narrow from Kansas City, and a result of what Utah were doing to disrupt their game.

Usually Michelle Cooper and/or Izzy Rodriguez provide width and incisive central passing, but both were tucked in within the width of the box. You’d assume that squishing Cooper, Debinha, Bia, and Temwa closer together would not be ideal, but the Current’s total of .8 xG suggests otherwise.

The assist from Kayla Sharples and finish from Temwa Chawinga is well worth watching approximately forty-seven consecutive times, though.

My fellow Hey Spirits cohost, Ella Brockway, said it best: This game could have been an email.

nj/ny gotham fc

This pass map only represents the thirty minutes prior to Geyse’s red card. Gotham clearly targeted the left side of Washington’s defense, but it only lead to two low quality (.03, .05) chances pre-red card.

washington spirit

The Spirit in turn targeted the left side of Gotham’s defense. This pass network only illustrates up to the 51st minute, but since the Spirit never really changed their approach, it’s still representative of why they struggled so much against ten players for over an hour.

Get👏Width👏In👏The👏Final👏Third👏When👏You👏Have👏A👏Player👏Advantage

Here’s your weekly dose of extreme NWSL’ing. Orlando’s xG is heavily inflated by two penalties (.76 xG), both of which were saved by Jordyn Bloomer, who might never give up that starting spot. The non-penalty xG is more like 1.37 to .8, revealing a closer contest, but still one you’d expect the Pride to win.

Louisville might want to work on not conceding multiple penalties in a match, but them securing four points from their two regular season scraps with Orlando was not on the bingo card of anyone sane.

orlando pride

The lineup looked like it was meant to be the Barbra Banda + Prisca Chilufya Show in attack but this is heavy-handed lol. Banda has needed someone to combine with, or to just be enough of a threat to create space or turn heads. But there’s still a need for, like, actual buildup play and stuff.

rahsing louisville

Louisville are assembling a team of terriers that like to be all over the place, all of the time. There’s not too much of a structure here, but it’s chaotic, which is where they thrive.

(Note: The timestamps are a bit thrown off thanks to a couple extra long stoppages, and resulting chunks of stoppage time.)

Angel City’s flatline until just before halftime is less than ideal, but somehow they managed to keep San Diego off the scoreboard, despite the Wavé taking eight of nine shots that half. Angel City returned the favor in the second half by taking 13 of the 15 shots that half. A weird one!

san diego wavé

This positioning looks quite tidy, but the bubbles and rings are all mostly the wrong color. That’s a lot of passes and a lot of established passing connections for Delphine Cascarino, Kimmie Ascanio and Trinity Armstrong to be the only outfield players with positive passing g+. Meanwhile, Adriana Leon and Kennedy Wesley are the only with positive receiving g+.

Oof.

angel city fc

Granted, this is the first 40 minutes when Angel City were doing a whole lotta nothing in possession. But still, sheesh. Oof. Gross, even.

These teams looked a lot more like mirror images of each other than Bay should be comfortable with. I am happy that they finally got Taylor Huff scoring (even if it is unacceptable that it’s taken this long).

They should, however, not be pleased with letting Shea Groom dribble herself into the box and directly in front of goal for a much too simple equalizer. Shea Groom is not Marta. When Kansas City defenders were sent to another universe in one of last year’s semifinals, it was understandable. That was Marta. This, though, was Shea Groom. Rumor has it Caprice Dydasco is still backing up, and was last seen somewhere over the Bering Sea.

chicago tsars

Chicago couldn’t quite replicate their surprising sauciness from last week, and only managed 92 passes in Bay’s half of the pitch. Oof. #TinyBubbles

bay fc

Bay didn’t do much better, only completing 122 passes in Chicago’s half. The wind was a big factor for both teams though. It forced them to keep the ball on the ground a lot and probably led to players having to be closer than either team would have wanted.

Holy Cascadia.

Portland and Seattle showed it takes real hate to make a rivalry. Three months after Seattle Reign head coach Laura Harvey slammed roses to the turf after beating Portland 1-0, the Thorns got sweet, goal-laden revenge.

portland thorns

With Seattle’s extra squishy central defense, Portland were invited to do the thing they want to do anyway: pack midfield, control possession, create chances. Only four outfield starters didn’t post high-to-stratospherically high passing g+. One of those players as Reilyn Turner, who instead opted for high receiving g+, a goal, and won penalty.

The wild thing is, this is how the Thorns pass networks under Rob Gale always look. There isn’t much different here and yet the Reign seemed completely flummoxed. Which brings me to…

seattle reign

This is my problem with Laura Harvey’s micromanaging approach. When it works, her selections and tactics can completely dismantle the opposition to turn matches into dull, low scoring contests Seattle can dictate. When it doesn’t, things get ugly. Really, really ugly.

Sofia Huerta as a middle center back in a back three? No Mia Fishel, Lynn Biyendolo, Nérilia Mondésir or Ji So-yun in the starting lineup? Neither enter the match until the 60th minute when Seattle was already down 3-1? This feels like a legendary galaxy-braining.

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