Hi, hello and welcome to the grand finale of u down with OBV!

This series has been a StatsBomb-guided look back at the 2023 NWSL season to find the top-5 players in total OBV (On Ball Value) per 90 at every position. OBV is a unique StatsBomb metric which pulls in multiple data points from passes, shots, dribbles & carries, and defensive actions to measure a player’s impact on increasing the likelihood of their team scoring a goal, or conceding one.

Seriously, it’s a whole lot, and everything is assigned a value. If you haven’t watched this video yet to see how intricate it gets, please do. It’s kinda wild.

Anyway, we’ve been through every position on the pitch, except one: strikers. Before we get to them, get you can get caught up on (or bookmark) our analysis of goalkeepers, center backs, right backs, left backs, defensive midfielders, center midfielders, central attacking midfielders, left wingers, and right wingers.

But now it’s time for those players sitting at the tip of the spear, those menaces meant to haunt center backs, those goal-hungry center forwards. As per usual in this series there were surprises and lots of variety. Also, there’s a name that made me sad and I may or may not have gone on a rant oops sorryyyyyyy.

Ok that’s enough, onto it.

Pass .05 | Dribble & Carry .08 | Defensive Action .01 | Shot -.05

Ashley Hatch is having a bit of a weird one in the Washington Spirit’s new style of play, but prior to 2024 she’d been the team’s top scorer since 2017. As far as OBV goes, there’s nothing that truly jumps out, which is somewhat telling given that a lot of Hatch’s goals have been penalties.

Her pass OBV was her highest number, which is sort of interesting. But remember Mark Parsons had the Spirit in a 442 for most of 2023, and she was in a strike partnership with Trinity Rodman. Also, she was a fairly regular corner taker from the left side, notching one assist from nine corners. In open play she nabbed her other assist (out of eighteen key passes) by getting Trinity Rodman behind the line against Louisville.

This may give some idea as to the type of qualities the current Spirit coaches are trying to extract from Hatch. Unfortunately it hasn’t quite worked, as she’s more comfortable centrally than on the wing, and also more limited wide without solid 1v1 dribbling skills or a dangerous burst of acceleration.

This sort of means that Hatch should probably be playing centrally, but her shot OBV was not only her lowest number, also a negative one. A lot of this could be dependent on the system and style of play, which called for elite athleticism and directness.

But also, there were quite a few shots from good locations, and a pretty poor underperforming of non-penalty xG (4 goals from 7.25). Getting into the position to score is extremely important, but being able to score those chances is the most important. It remains to be seen how the rest of 2024 goes for Hatch, but if Spirit coaches want to develop her passing more than her ability as a target forward, on this evidence that appears to be fair. It’s just a question of whether or not Hatch agrees.

Pass .01 | Dribble & Carry .23 | Defensive Action -.04 | Shot -.08

This is where I get mad. Ebony Salmon is a unique talent with all the physical tools to perform in this league. That was said before she came to the NWSL, and when she hit the ground scoring, it became obvious. Then Louisville did whatever the fuck Louisville were doing in her time there, and let Kim Björkogren run her out of town.

She looked excellent in Houston under Juan Carlo Amorós, then he bounced to Gotham and Sam Laity decided to do whatever the fuck as well. Laity frequently played her as a winger, likely because she’s fast, but she was not at all comfortable in the position. She had a handful of starts at central striker, but eventually they ended up choosing Diana Ordoñez and Salmon was transferred back to England to play for Aston Villa.

I dunno man, that comparison kinda speaks for itself. It frustrates me when good players get poor coaching, and that authority and misguidance wastes their talents and years of their career. Salmon was fun in this league, and would likely still be here if she played for a competent coach.

Anyway, here’s her shot map which highlights her not being comfortable coming in from the right wing. Also, Laity’s system was a slog, and chances at goal were minimal, though Salmon somehow led the Dash with 3.69xG, but scoring only one goal.

What made Salmon fun and dangerous was her combination of a lightning quick first step and rapid acceleration to top speed. This made her a threat when dribbling and carrying the ball into the final third. Except in Laity’s system, instead of having her central to attack defenses from the middle, he pushed her wide, where the plan was to 1) use this skill to get behind, and 2) ???.

Pass .03 | Dribble & Carry .08 | Defensive Action .03 | Shot -.02

Now we’re talking. Here come the surprises, because I won’t lie to you, there were some moments where I was like ‘ooh that was some kinda nice movement and play from (then) Davis’. However, she apparently did impressive things a lot more often than I thought.

While no number really jumps out, there’s some solid work being done in just about every area. Wright’s largest OBV number was dribble & carry, which is actually kinda wild to see when looking at the plot of her carries. The vast majority of them happened wide, but she logged 13.3 90s at center forward, and only .7 at left wing and .6 on the right.

While that’s kinda wild, it likely means she was drifting wide a lot to get involved with play and making space for DeMelo to do her thing centrally. But it does appear to have had a pretty negative impact on her shot map, which was her lowest OBV number, and also negative.

Another thing that really jumps out is that Davis only registered one shot within the six-yard box. A striker should be getting a few more chances closer to goal, but she did score three of her four goals from around the penalty spot. Her conversion rate was just a smidge below her xG, and if a better system could help her grab some easier central chances, her development was certainly worth watching.

Unfortunately Rahsing Louisville put her on the 45-day injury list on April 5. But I’m intrigued to watch her in Bev Yanez’s system once she returns. There’s a lot of promising data in her game.

Pass .01 | Dribble & Carry .13 | Defensive Action .02 | Shot .04

Since coming into the NWSL Rodman’s defensive work, vision and passing have been her standout attributes. I’ve long wanted a ruthless streak of selfishness in front of goal, and thought we might get that with her at center forward – but that didn’t happen.

Instead, her pass OBV of .01 was a whole ten points lower than the previous season, which means a key aspect of her game was quite drastically underutilized. A lot was wrong with the way the Spirit moved in possession last season, but Rodman going off in front of goal could have been a saving grace.

But she only scored five goals from 5.99xG. One of the things that stands out is a lot of shots at or around the top of the box. This was likely caused by thee not being many options once the ball got to this area, which is a byproduct of a 442, but also the mid block and direct passing that was a hallmark of the Spirit’s attack.

Of course, Rodman can and hopefully does add some trademark finishes to her game. While her underperformance of xG wasn’t by a massive amount, she has the caliber of talent that probably should be expected to overperform her xG on a fairly regular basis – pretty much all great attacking players do.

Rodman’s dribble & carry OBV was the highest we’ve seen yet. She registered 594 carries with 430 successful, a rate of 72.4%. The Trin Spin™ became a thing, and she famously told Sam Mewis in an interview that “it works.” She was speaking absolute truth. Of all strikers with over 900 minutes played, Rodman led all in dribbles attempted (5.37) and successful dribbles (2.71) per 90.

As mentioned above, Rodman’s pass OBV took a hit in 2023, and key passes can reveal just how much. In 2023 she hit 17 key passes for 2.56xG, and the year prior she created 28 shots for 4.04xG. Rodman’s passing and crossing are some of her best attributes, and while I still think she can (and hopefully does) develop more in front of goal, it’s clear her natural game is helping to setup others.

I have long thought this but have never written it down so here we go: it’s my belief that Trinity Rodman can become the NWSL’s first 10g/10a player. It’ll take some sharper finishing, but with a style of play better tailored to her skills, plus better finishing in the squad overall, she can get there. I doubt it will be this year, but she has all the skills to put together a magical never-before-seen type of season.

Pass .08 | Dribble & Carry .21 | Defensive Action .04 | Shot .08

Whomst else did you expect? Like, honestly. This menace has been terrorizing defenses since her Stanford days and even long before. How she’s adapted and what she’s become as a professional is remarkable, and she’s still getting better (Portland just needs to, ya know, help, instead of getting in the way).

Smith’s pass, dribble & carry, shot, and defensive action OBV are all the highest among this group. In short: Soph Smith goodt.

Remember when I seemed like I was being slightly unfair by expecting Rodman to overperform her xG? Well this is why. Players of this caliber do this quite frequently. Smith dropped ten goals from 7.87xG. Outside of the box finishes are one way to get there, or, like Mallory Swanson in 2022 (10 goals, 7.75xG) exquisite shot placement and ability to read and trick goalkeepers is another.

Anyway, back to Soph.

If I were to nitpick, Smith could probably add a few more goals with some off ball movement to get more chances at the penalty spot and below. But this kinda leads to another fun aspect of her game: her passing.

The goalscoring overshadows her ability to be a dangerous passer in and around the box, but she is exactly that. She hit 20 passes leading to shots, totaling 3.68xG, and at .18xG per shot (average is .10!!).

Out of that she got four assists, and a couple were from teams forgetting to mark Crystal Dunn in front of goal, which was a hilarious couple of weeks. But it wasn’t just that, she set teammates up for shots within the width of the six-yard box, which is exactly where teams don’t want players shooting.

But of course we’re all still here because we are sickos. We saw that .21 dribble & carry OBV and just had to know what that actually looks like. Smith led all strikers in carries with 32.21 per 90.

Another fun little thing to note about Soph is looking at the direction of her shots. If you want to know what makes her a good finisher, it’s this. Combined with her ability to create her own shot by carrying the ball between, through and around defenders, she also paints corners with her shots. Out of her 75 shots, only one went to the center of the goal (and even that was a goal lol).

Sophia Smith started life as a fun winger who flashed sharp finishing instincts around the box. Since, she’s become such a dominant finisher that she’s become a central striker, still capable of all the on-ball magic, but now able to pepper the goal from central areas.

Smith is a unique talent, and hopefully Portland can get their shit together so she can find her ceiling, which is likely somewhere in another galaxy.

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