This On Ball Value (OBV) journey has been fun. If you’re just hopping in, hello hi welcome and here’s a quick reminder and/or explainer that OBV is a compilation of a number of metrics aimed at assessing a player’s value to their team’s probability of scoring, but also conceding (negative values exist). So far we’ve done top 5 goalkeepers & top 5 center backs, and now we’re getting into fullbacks, which have been my most fun deep dives yet.

Before we get to it though, I need to tell you that I struggled with the minutes limit so hard. My brain told me to keep it at 1500, but when I dropped it to 1200 some very interesting names came into play. Those names also weren’t far off 1500 (furthest: 55 minutes, nearest: 11 minutes). But the lists are also full of players with 1800 to over 2000 minutes, so ultimately it just didn’t seem fair.

So with the sincerest of apologies to Dorian Bailey, Ali Riley and Izzy Rodriguez, let’s get on with it and start with right backs.

Ok so while we all had fun giggling at center backs with negative Shot OBV/90, here’s where including the stats for “defenders” becomes a bit tricky. Four out of the top five right backs had negative shot values, which is a bit cruel.

Negative shot values mean two things: the decision to shoot from the situation the shot is taken from is less than ideal, or th shot was executed poorly. Either (or both) will result in the reduction in their team’s chance of scoring, which presents a negative value.

For fullbacks it’s a bit tricky, they aren’t meant to be in the box frequently enough to get off high value shots, and they typically take shots from outside the box – which is most often where they hang out. Pretty much any advanced data capture or statistic hates long distance shots (this is where data and I beef, as I am extremely #TeamBangersOnly), so I removed Shot OBV and re-adjusted the numbers.

However, my promise to you is that I will also include the shot map of each fullback, because there’s interesting (and sometimes funny) stuff there.

Pass .14 | Dribble & Carry .06 | Defensive Action .04

Removing Shot OBV helped Del Fava bump Christen Westphal, so we’re having fun already. Del Fava grabbed the spot due to the variance in Pass OBV, with Westphal posting .10.

Even though only one became an assist, she hit twelve passes that led directly to shots. Only three were completed to players outside the box, and I truly am interested about the one at the very bottom, apparently Michelle Cooper got the ball, cut in and blasted a shot. Welp, it counts!

As promised, here’s Del Fava’s shot map. I was actually surprised to see only two shots from outside of the box, and a handful near or around the penalty spot. However, five of the nine shots were blocked, three missed, and only one needed to be saved. Still, I’m kinda impressed that she’s getting shots off primarily in the box and around the penalty spot.

Pass .16 | Dribble & Carry .07 | Defensive Action .04

Bruninha is where my decision to remove Shot OBV really hurts her, and tbh me. She put up the only non-negative, at .04, and in a bit we;’ll see why.

First though, that pass number is delightful. Bruninha played 2.7 90s at left back, so you’ll see some passes from that side, but she logged 17.9 90s at right back so she’s here.

Twenty-three passes led to shots, though still only one assist. However, similar to that one hilarious Del Fava ‘key pass’ from her own box, Bruninha has several far away from the box that became shots, which likely helped lower the average expected goal number of the shots she helped create (.06xG per shot).

Still, this is ultra effective and not as direct as what we saw with Del Fava. This is likely due to Juan Carlos Amorós being a wild boi and having his players shift all over the place during buildup sequences.

And now we get to the portion of the program where we get to look at the splendor of Bruninha’s shot chart, and apologize to her for the decision I had to make at the top.

It’s only six shots, but it led to two goals with just one blocked, two missed and one saved. Squeezing two goals out of six shots and .63 expected goals isn’t exactly the most easily replicated or reliable of things, but it is fun. And if you take away my favorite shot – the .01xG chance from thirty yards, obvs – the average xG per shot goes from .10 to .12, not drastic, but above average and respectable.

Pass .15 | Dribble & Carry .08 | Defensive Action .04

Now we’re getting into a bit of variation. Milliet’s Pass OBV may be a tic lower than Bruninha’s, but she makes up for it by having the highest Dribble & Carry OBV of the group. She registered 703 carries, and only lost possession on fifty-two occasions.

But don’t sleep on Milliet’s shot creation either. Despite the impressive carries, her passing was still the most important part of her impact on her team’s ability to score a goal. She had seventeen passes that led to a shot, with only five of those passes being completed outside the box (three if you ignore the ones distributed from her own half).

However, you may in fact take a wee little nap on her shot map.

Pass .14 | Dribble & Carry .07 | Defensive Action .09

This one makes me happy, and also leads us to our highest Defensive Action OBV of the group. That’s right, Dydasco will straight up take your shit.

Here are all the times she changed possession via tackle, interception or pressure, which happened 226 times.

Dydasco was third over all in Possession Adjusted (PAdj) Tackles & Interceptions, averaging 4.43 per 90, and posted the highest Tack/DP% (percentage of time a player makes a tackle when going into a duel vs getting dribbled past) of the group, tied for third overall at 75%.

Of course, Dydasco’s largest number was her passing, which led to 25 shots, one goal, and a combined xG of 1.51. These don’t sound too impressive, and overall they aren’t, but remember that Sam Laity had Houston’s attack fighting for its life. They were the only team to not crack twenty goals (16; second lowest was 25).

If we compare that to her numbers in 2021 with Gotham FC, the misuse becomes enough to make you wanna fight.

Oh yeah, the shot map. Honestly, I respect it.

Pass .20 | Dribble & Carry .07 | Defensive Action .08

HUERTA HIIIIIIIIIIIIVE NOW IS OUR TIME. Honestly was there any doubt? Ok, let’s start with the not obvious stuff, such as the quite high Defensive Action number, where only Dydasco’s was higher. Milliet, Bruninha and Del Fava posted exactly half this number, which surprised me.

Though this is where we get to have a bit of fun spelunking in the data. Dydasco took possession 226 times, whereas Huerta only registered 138. So I had to dig a bit deeper to find out what Huerta was doing so effectively that elevated her Defensive Action OBV into Dydasco’s orbit.

She had the third highest Dribbles Stopped percentage out of all right backs (62%) and was second in Aerial Win percentage (62%; Dydasco 50%). But Huerta was super key to Reign’s pressure and counterpressure actions, particularly in their opponent’s half.

But we all know what we’re here for. It’s time to stop messing around. Let’s all take a deep breath, prepare our hearts and minds for wonder and amazement, and let it wash over us.

Oh hell yeah, that’s the good stuff. Finishing let her down a bit, but 28 passes leading to shots, two goals, 2.63xG and .09xG per shot – yeah, that’ll do.

This map also shows the absurd accuracy and vision of Huerta’s passing. Even though it’s just dots and lines on a flat screen, we can see that most shot maps contained passes that originated closer to the box. Huerta’s accuracy, timing and placement allowed her to wallop balls into the box from deep areas without compromising the quality of the shot on goal. It truly is a special skill.

Remember that time Sofia Huerta scored in a banger in the Challenge Cup then said afterward that she just “hit the shit out of it”? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Anyway, having the same number of non-penalty shots inside the box as outside the box is beautiful and perfect in every way.

Please keep hitting the shit out of it, we are all rooting for you.