nwsl week 22: xG race charts & pass networks

NWSL Week 22 was a week in which we learned that multiple teams outside of the playoffs are trying very hard to stay where they are while a couple teams currently in playoff positions are trying their best to give away their spots. There are only four games left and we’re either gonna see someone(s) decide to be serious, or full on calamity that’s gonna result in teams making the playoffs who won’t have any idea how they got there. Last season Gotham snuck into the playoffs (over Orlando) by a narrow goal difference, so whoever tumbles their way into the postseason will at least have hope.

In addition to all that though, the Pride continue to be absurdly good, the Spirit went on a very successful #business #trip, Vlatko remains a mystery wrapped in an enigma but also maybe not really, and I am looking at Rahsing’s performance with the smuggest face I can muster.

Anyway, here’s what it all looked like according to StatsBomb’s xG race charts and passing networks.

angel city 1-2 washington spirit

Angel City had a real good chance to sneak some much needed points from a depleted top-4 team and instead lost the xG battle and the game. Whoops.

acfc

Been begging Becki Tweed to put in a real central attacking midfielder, she did, then had Messiah Bright drop all the way into the center circle. To be fair to Fuller though, she cooked. Shad had a .17 xG chance for herself, and created Megan Reid’s .37 xG miss after a deft flick on header let the ball drop to the center back all alone five yards from goal.

There are talented players who will cook for the team, they just need to be given opportunities to do so. Trying to be clinical and defensively stout ain’t this Angel City’s ministry. Coaches always wanna control matches, but if you don’t have the capacity to do so then you gotta find other ways to win games.

Might already be too late though. There are only four regular season games left and Angel City getting just one point from their previous four means they’re six points away from the final playoff spot. They need the Lord, Allah, Buddha, Beyoncé and that talking lion from Narnia and it still might not be enough.

spirit

This was a really good #professional business trip from the Spirit. They rode a bit of luck but kept creating chances, scoring two of their three +.20 xG chances created. Rosemonde Kouassi has been a menace since entering the league and did her best Trinity Rodman impression in this game.

The only downside is Hal Hershfelt avoiding her fifth yellow card of the season until 90+6’, meaning she’ll be suspended versus Orlando Pride. It was kind of a nothing foul, but NWSL ref’s gon NWSL ref, and that might just extinguish the sliver of hope they had of fighting for the NWSL Shield.

kc current 1-1 nj/ny gotham

Temwa’s goal was .95 xG which is hilarious, and accounts for a large portion of Kansas City’s overall value. But even without it they won’t the xG battle with Gotham and probably should have won this game Remember the Gotham forcefield? It might be back. Also, this year its name might just be Ann-Katrin Berger. She made three saves, one a .50 post shot xG (psxG) chance, and another that was .36.

current

Vlatko out here inventing new shit, I have no idea what that jagged backline is but at least in terms of the result and xG conceded it kinda worked? Maybe? I dunno. Vlatko will remain a puzzle I am wholly unmotivated to solve. To be honest, we know from his USWNT stint that all this all out attack stuff ain’t who he truly is, but he also knows he could use a rebrand. Enter vice president of marketing and business development, Temwa Chawinga.

gotham

I’m not a big fan of Esther getting starts over Ella Stevens, nor Stevens playing wide when she comes on. It hasn’t cost Gotham in this game, but I have to imagine with Lynn Williams back and Yazmeen Ryan cooking, the Bats’ best front three is those two flanking Stevens. Anyway, Kansas City’s threats forced Gotham to be less expansive than they usually are, and that helped created a bit of a disconnect with the forwards—except Lynn Williams. Because this is just what Lynn Williams does.

utah royals 1-0 rahsing louisville

So you know how I’ve been typing into the abyss of the interwebs about not liking what Louisville was doing and that despite them miraculously picking up points that it was unsustainable? Pepperidge Farm remembers. This is Yikington F. Wetherington III bad.

Right back Lauren Milliet was the only player to register a shot in the first half, they then made changes at halftime, and the team took the remainder of their shots between the 54th and 78th minutes and then watched in horror as Ana Tejada’s banger snatched all the points.

royals

Paige Monaghan’s early injury resulted in a somewhat funky starting XI pass network. Everyone else is accurate, but Monaghan didn’t actually just sulk behind left back Zoe Burns.

The first half look is as good as we’re gonna get, and Cameron Tucker, who subbed in for Monaghan, was the player to fill the space on the right wing.

Anyway, Utah basically attacked the flanks and also cooked a little in midfield while daring Rahsing’s Savannah DeMelo-less midfield to match them and well that didn’t happen.

rahsing

I maintain that this is yucky. It’s unfortunate too, because Taylor Flint really has been exceptional in deep midfield this season. She’s not just breaking up play and being #tall, though she is doing those things too, she’s linking play and facilitating with the ball on the ground. Removing DeMelo from the midfield has made that job more difficult, and it’s impacted Flint and the entire team.

It doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to have DeMelo high up the pitch like this, disconnected from everyone but Marisa DiGrande. As a result, DeMelo had the second fewest passes among the starting XI (14). Balcer had just four, but was subbed off at halftime whereas DeMelo played all 90. Neutralizing one of your most potent and consistent attacking threats in this way is wild to me and I would very much like it to stop.

orlando pride 3-1 houston dash

After going down 0-2 the Dash broke the Pride’s shutout streak (which dated back to July 6th!!!!!) and made it 2-1. Orlando took that personally and responded by generating chances of .40 and .51 xG immediately after, before Marta took matters into her own hands (feet?) and blasted in a .08 chance. This team is very mean and I love them.

pride

Cookin. With grease.

Also, peep how Seb Hines keeps rotating the squad and not seeing massive dropoffs? This game they completely changed their fullbacks and started with Carson Pickett (who scored) and rookie Cori Dyke (who was dope). Morgan Gautrat started in midfield, and Julie Doyle in attack. It doesn’t matter. Orlando could probably put you or I in a game and we’d complete a handful of passes, get embarrassed but be bailed out by Emily Sams or Kylie Strom, and celebrate a dub at the end of the day.

dash

Honestly, the Dash battled in this one. And frankly it would have been so NWSL for the Dash to spoil Orlando’s unbeaten streak. As it was, it’s still funny that they broke their shutout streak. But also, this is ungood. Orlando certainly played their part, but it can’t be this. It can never be this.

san diego wavé 2-0 portland thorns

Portland are in an absolute freefall and not even Landon Donovan’s San Diego Wavé could help them snap out of it. Mya Jones’ doorstep header from a free kick was .83 of the Wavé’s xG total, and teenager Melanie Barcenas scored her first professional goal via a wicked deflection off a defender. Without Sophia Smith, who is still out with an ankle injury, the Thorns had no response.

Their best chance (.39 xG) came from center back Becky Sauerbrunn, and while I would fight your granddad for a Becky goal, that’s less than ideal. Even more not ideal is actual goalscorers Olivia Moultrie (.17) and Izzy D’Aquila (.20) missed the other two big chances created.

wavé

A bit lopsided but a lot of connections and ball movement, even though the bulk of it is happening in their own defensive half. Sometimes this is how foundations are built, and other times it’s just a thing that happens when a coach doesn’t have great ideas about what to do next. Luckily for Donovan he has María Sánchez and Delphine Cascarino on the wings so it doesn’t really matter which reason it is—yet.

thorns

With Rob Gale out for the second week in a row with an illness, Sarah Lowdon took over again and stuck with her three at the back. I get the idea, especially for a team that’s been lacking defensive solidity—if two center backs can’t cope, try three. Unfortunately for her it hasn’t really worked.

San Diego got a couple slices of good fortune, but these things tend to happen things aren’t going well. I don’t know what the solution is, but at this point it seems like Portland is going to need the offseason to find it.

chicago red stars 1-3 nc courage

The Chicago ‘Ugh Stuck At Home Again I’m So Bored’ Red Stars faced the North Carolina ‘Can We Go Home Now’ Courage and something had to give. And what gave was my low expectations for this game lol. Somehow the teams combined for just 1.64 total xG but managed to put up four goals.

An own goal helped, but Denise O’Sullivan hit a .08 banger, then Ludmila said watch this and hit a .01 banger from a ridiculous angle. Unfortunately for Chicago, three of the four goals were against them, which may have put them hand-in-hand with Portland in tumbling down the table. Good news for both is that Seattle, Louisville and Angel City are each trying very hard to make their own paths to the playoffs mathematically unstable.

red stars

The loss sucks but there are things to like here. Getting Mallory Swanson and Ludmila closer to one another is fun, and I spy a midfielder with bright red pass OBV (on ball value). Julia Grosso tied with Narumi for highest pass OBV of the game, both with .16. On another day this is a 1-1 or the Red Stars squeak out another goal because Swanson and Ludmila are the caliber of players who can finish low quality chances from time to time.

However, I think what we’re starting to see a fundamental difference in how Lorne Donaldson wants to construct a team, and what the front office wants from a team. This is all speculation, but well-monied owners rarely drop bags to play defensive soccer. We’ll see what happens this offseason, but if they stick with Donaldson they’re going to have to back him by bringing in players who fit his style of play.

courage

The scoreline, for a game in which North Carolina played away from home, is finally and emphatically in their favor. I don’t want to take that away from them, and honestly, I wouldn’t dare. (But this still doesn’t look great and on several other days this exactly performance does not yield the result they got I am so sorry I didn’t mean to type this out loud I’m trying to delete it but it won’t let me ☹️.)

seattle reign 0-1 bay fc

After a bad loss to Houston last week Laura Harvey decided not to start Jaelin Howell or Shae Holmes (opting for Veronica Latsko at right back), and Nérilia Mondésir—who signed in July—has still yet to start a match, against a team they absolutely needed to keep points from in Bay FC. Let’s see how it worked ou-….ah. Oh.

reign

I do not understand. This was as must win of a game as a team could have with less than ten games remaining and the Reign just kinda passed the ball around without really ever threatening Bay FC’s goal. Veronica Latsko tried, and put up .11 pass OBV, but no other outfield player was above .05, and six posted negative values. Tziarra King had their “best” chance of the day, a .07 xG shot, well below league average. One, two, three Cancun I guess.

bay

Instead of trying to dominate possession and work the ball, Bay did the smart thing and just gave it to Seattle, who certainly did not want it and didn’t know what to do with it lol. Bay did, and pressed the hell out of them. The xG is inflated by the penalty (.78 xG), but Bay also crafted a handful of above average chances, including a .46 for Kundananji from a throughball.

This is one of the (other) reasons why I don’t understand dropping a bag on Penelope Hocking. She started, played rather deep for some reason, dropped a .01 pass OBV, and created two low value shots (.05). She’s new to the team and all that, but it makes me wonder if this hybrid half-space playmaker who gets limited touches and it’s still fine might be the role Deyna Castellanos has been waiting for. I, for one, would like to see it.

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