nwsl week 21: xG race charts & pass networks

NWSL Week 21 was wacky. The Current exorcised all manner of revenge on the Washington Spirit, Bay FC scrapped with Orlando harder than Orlando has maybe been scrapped with all season, The Curse of Casey Stoney haunted Landon Donovan’s San Diego Wavé, and ain’t no mid-off like an NWSL mid-off. Plus, Reign decided to lost to Houston which prompted me to do some digging into Jordyn Huitema’s year so far and oof.

Anyway, here’s what it all looked like according to StatsBomb’s xG race charts and passing networks.

kc current 3-0 washington spirit

Kansas City returned the favor.

current

The gameplan didn’t have much to do with moving the ball through the thirds to sustain attacks so this is fine. Kansas City let the Spirit do what they want, lowered their pressing line and tormented the Spirit on the break. Then tormented them again. Then another time. Once more. And again. Plus several other more times.

spirit

This is the most Barcelona-ass pass network we’ve seen from the Spirit yet and it resulted in their worst performance of the season. New Liga F president Beatriz Álvarez may think that Sporting Huelva could compete here, but Spanish teams who deploy the sit deep and counter tactic don’t have players like Temwa Chawinga, or Debinha, or Michelle Cooper, or Bia Zaneratto, or—you get my point. If they did, their league would be a lot more competitive, and fun to watch.

bay fc 0-1 orlando pride

Genuinely impressive from Bay. Barbra Banda’s 84th minute goal was a heartbreaker, especially because it was only a .07 xG chance, but that’s why you sign a player like Banda. On the day she and Carson Pickett had the Pride’s best two chances (.14). Bay generated a .22 chance for Kundananji and a .19 for Dorian Bailey.

On another day at least one of those goes in, so even though there aren’t many games remaining and points are precious, this should still be viewed as an encouraging performance.

bay

Bay turned up and went shot for shot, machine for machine with the best team in the league by some margin. That’s genuinely impressive stuff. The passing connections are strong, they have multiple players with high pass OBV, including their defensive mid and two of their three starting forwards. Cookin.

It makes me wonder what this Bay team would be like had they addressed their defense earlier, and settled into this style of play from the beginning.

pride

While the Pride fought back in this game on the surface it didn’t appear to be one of their best. I kinda disagree though, because the Pride are doing the very dangerous thing of learning how to cope with different games and still win them in the end. That’s the last frontier of truly dominant teams. Can’t smash everyone 3 or 4-nil, sometimes your goalkeeper is gonna have your second highest pass OBV but you win anyway.

rahsing louisville 2-1 nc courage

Extremely hilarious. Road Courage strike again. The overall xG difference is a bit of a mirage, Emma Sears’ goal (.96 xG) and Bethany Balcer’s penalty (.78 xG) inflate Louisville’s total by a lot. Still, the Courage need to explain what the hell happened to them after the 49th minute. They legit do not get another shot on goal until Kerolin subbed on and hit a .01 xG chance in the 88th minute. Why, Road North Carolina, are you like this.

rahsing

Rahsing are getting points and I guess at this point that’s all that matters but I super do not like how they’ve been setting up since their summer moves. Savannah DeMelo inverting from the wing is a good way to her production back in the midfield and back into games, but Lauren Milliet isn’t exactly the sort of attacking fullback that’s going to capitalize on having that space. In this game she had the second lowest pass OBV among starters (-.07).

Also, you don’t have to find creative ways to get DeMelo back in midfield if you simply keep her in midfield, and as an extra bonus you also wouldn’t have to push Emma Sears to the bench. One day I’m going to drop a longer piece on why I think Savannah DeMelo should be a box-to-box midfielder, but for now I’m going to be mad at how all this is playing out but maybe Louisville will also keep picking up points and I will angry type into the expanse of the internet until their season is over.

courage

Everyone in the defensive half (five players): 373 passes; everybody in the attacking half (six players): 180. Also, the backline is pushed high up but everyone else remained smooshed in close proximity, with no one venturing into the attacking third. Alright.

houston dash 1-0 seattle reign

Seattle Reign, I believed in you.

Maybe that’s my fault, but also this is the 2024 Houston Dash. Yuki Nagasato hit an outrageous volley that was a .05 xG chance, and Jordyn Huitema missed .81 xG worth of chances, including shots of .15, .17 and .30.

dash

Andressa and Diana Ordóñez bonding in the middle of the pitch is funny to me. But also I’m not gonna be super critical of the players, they’ve been put in a tremendously shitty situation and each week it remains unresolved deepens the sense that the front office doesn’t care about the team. Players battling on anyway is valiant, and something the front office doesn’t deserve.

reign

At some point Seattle is probably gonna be forced to have a serious conversation about Jordyn Huitema. They just re-signed her to an extension, and she’s still just 23, so they can delay it a little, but they should start preparing. This season she has two goals on 4.15 xG in just under 14 90s played.

In O/U Performance, which measures the difference between scoring contribution (actual goals and assists) and xG & xG Assisted, Huitema is third lowest among forwards who have played at least 900 minutes. She’s only above Katie Stengel, who now plays for Crystal Palace, and Utah’s Hannah Betfort.

Sometimes O/U Performance can get awkward depending on volume of chance creation, for instance Racheal Kundananji also has a negative number. But in her instance it more relates to how much she’s creating, Huitema doesn’t have that excuse. Her per 90 numbers are .30 xG (56th percentile), 2.32 shots (55th percentile), and .11 open play xGA (50th percentile). In short, intended goal contributions are low, and the output is even lower. Oof.

chicago red stars 1-0 san diego wavé

Sweet merciful heavens. What in tarnation. Shiver me timbers. great Caesar’s ghost. Well I never.

I’m calling this game The Curse of Casey Stoney. Sorry to the players, this must have sucked, but it is so outrageous that I’m forced to believe supernatural forces were at play. San Diego missed seventeen shots above the average of .10 xG per shot, including chances of .41, .37, .23, .21, .20, .32, .29, and ,38. Footballing crimes were committed on this day.

red stars

Ludmila and Mallory Swanson started their second game together and it was delightful. Ludmila scored their first chance of game, and the pair combined for .97 of Chicago’s 1.56 total. On xG this was clearly a game the Red Stars should not have won, and to be honest this very open defensive structure is surprising to see from them. Essentially they chased San Diego around all game and relied on Alyssa Naeher and karma. I suggest not doing that too many more times.

wavé

Nothing more to say, really. Just sort of incredible. Everyone did every aspect of their job except for getting the ball to cross the line.

nj/ny gotham 1-0 utah royals

Due to injuries and Gotham playing several games, and traveling a lot to do so, we’re seeing a diminished Gotham. However, just like Orlando Pride, it’s sort of even scarier that they’re finding ways to win anyway. Part of this is their well-coached structure and press, which allows them to pick their moments to jump the opposition and keep the ball away from dangerous areas.

Still, gotta score goals at the other end, and Yazmeen Ryan scored their first chance of the game, and at .13 xG, was also their highest of the game as well.

gotham

With Jess Carter on the pitch Gotham can afford to take the risk of pushign everyone up higher to press and keep possession while trusting Carter, Emily Sonnett and Tierna Davidson to mitigate most of what leaks through, with the rest being dealt with by Ann-Katrin Berger.

royals

Utah struggled to get out of their own half due to Gotham’s out-of-possession structure and press. Sometimes there difference in just finishing. Yazmeen Ryan scored Gotham’s first and best shot, while Cloé Lacasse missed the best chance the Royals created (.18). Without Mina Tanaka or Ally Sentnor (who just won the third place match at the U20 World Cup), Utah’s chances of scoring a low xG chance are slim.

angel city 2-2 portland thorns

Ain’t no mid-off like an NWSL mid-off. Bad or no defense, just vibes. A teenage phenom scoring her fifth goal in five games. Opposing center backs nearly scoring in extra time. These teams may be hazardous for their supporters’ health, but are dopamine bombs for neutrals.

acfc

I maintain that an actual #10 would help Angel City do better than this. It seems Becki Tweed went with the ‘have cake and eat it too’ approach to using Katie Zelem. She’s sitting deep to keep numbers and protection defensively, but is also the only one effectively facilitating play. A central attacking midfielder would help, but instead only Alyssa Thompson, fullback Madison Curry and center back Megan Reid joined her with positive pass OBV.

thorns

[/look at how they massacred my boy voice] Look at how they massacred my defensive midfielder. I dunno what Portland are doing to Sam Coffey but I don’t like it. She’s been one of the best deep-lying facilitators in the league for a couple seasons and suddenly she’s putting up negative pass OBV (-.08) on just 37 passes.

Someone must pay.

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