my bad: from 'peloton' to potential rookie of the year

I’d never say this on social media because the quote posts would be unbearable, but I love being wrong. Typically, unless you’re shameless and belligerent, it means you’ve learned something, which is a thing I love to do. I also enjoy attempting to analyze and summarize things I see on the pitch. Every now and then, a team or player will do something I didn’t expect—I live for those moments.

So I’m starting a new series called ‘my bad’, in which I’ll look at what I thought, say my bad, and dig into how I was so wrong.

I insist on having fun. I was the kid constantly getting in trouble for laughing in the back of the classroom and cracking jokes under my breath so I wouldn’t be alone. This carries over into how I absorb, analyze and discuss sports. It’s why I call players menaces or hoopers and claim a thing they’ve done is an act of violence or something sinister, or diabolical. If I’m going to analyze the game, I’m going to have fun. Sometimes, though, in my quest to describe things I’m seeing with humor or something distinct, I get it wrong.

This is what has seemingly happened with Angel City trialist-turned-every-match-starter, Riley Tiernan. When she first took the pitch in an Angel City lineup it was unexpected. Sydney Leroux announced she would be stepping back and Casey Phair is still just 17-years-old and hadn’t played a minute in the NWSL regular season. Angel City was also coachless, and choosing to hand the team to Sam Laity while they figured out a plan.

We’d all seen Laity’s movies with Houston Dash, and they didn’t go well. His Dash team was unfun and unimaginative, seemingly only focused on defending (which they weren’t good at either), and often appeared completely perplexed by the white orb that fell to their feet from time to time.

As a result, it initially seemed obvious why Laity turned to Tiernan to lead the forward line. She was an intense, relentless and often times one-player press. She never looked to run out of energy and chased seemingly lost causes with an uncommon zeal. It was a vibe I needed to explain. Thus ‘Peloton’ was born.

You know Peloton, the stationary bike that became an app that became a lifestyle. Peloton instructors are notoriously endlessly positive while smiling and whooing through the painful feel good of intense cardio workouts, vigorously bobbing along to a song we’ve all heard too much, and will be reminded of in a grocery store in ten years time. Tiernan’s ferocious pressing gave off this vibe. It felt like, if you listened closely, you could hear the pop radio hits thumping as she charged at a center back for the four-hundredth time that half.

The joke was that she played like a Peloton instructor that was handed a team kit and told to run, a lot. But then she started scoring, a lot.

Tiernan currently has six goals on the season, just one away from the three-way tie for the golden boot between Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga, and Esther González. This hasn’t been the result of a one-off hat trick or hot scoring streak either. She’s started all eleven games, has only one multi-goal game, and has scored against five of the the eleven teams she’s faced. She’s not just feasting on bottom table clubs either. For every goal against Houston and Louisville, she also boasts goals against Orlando, Washington, and Seattle.

The persistent nature to her game has made her a good fit for Angel City, whose star talents typically play along the wings, and are bolts of lightning with boots on. Tiernan’s been smart in finding her way into attacks by either arriving “late” but just in time to get on the end of a cross, or receiving the ball outside of the box to take advantage of a backline on its heels.

The nerds (it me, I am nerd) will point out that while Tiernan has seemed consistent and has spread her goals out, there’s still a massive variance between her expected goals (2.4xG) and actual goals scored (6). Usually when we see this it’s an overperformance that eventually corrects as the player piles up more minutes. Unless a player enters the top 1% of finishers, the mean comes for them all. While that should also be expected for Tiernan, the extent of her dip is currently unknown.

Elite level finishers typically outperform their expected goals tally. (I’m talkin the Sophia Wilsons of the world, who in 2024 put in 12 goals from 9.65 xG; or Sam Kerr who scored 12 from 10.7 in 22/23, and 20 from 11.7 in 21/22.) This makes sense, because ‘expected goals’ are a calculated average. But American Soccer Analysis’ xPlace metric can help us identify more about the shots a player takes. This metric measures the variance between pre-shot expected goals (regular degular xG) and post-shot xG. Post shot xG represents the quality of the strike, taking into account shot placement and goalkeeper positioning.

Presently, Tiernan is third among strikers in his category, with an xPlace of .62—just below Barbra Banda (.66) and NWSL leader Esther (1.34). This suggests that while her goal output and xG will likely grow closer over the season, the shots Tiernan is capable of could lead to some measure of overperformance.

I think my favorite goal of hers so far is this near post torpedo she rocketed by Orlando keeper Anna Moorhouse. We’ll get to the goal in a second, but another tool of hers that has become endlessly useful is her chop move. She can chop the ball right, left, or to a full stop, and it drives defenders crazy. Her speed and eagerness to go from 0-100, then 100-0, help make this tool even more effective.

The strike itself is nasty. After discarding her defender, she gets a clean path to dribble toward Anna Moorhouse. Goalkeepers hate being beaten near post, and in most instances it probably shouldn’t happen. This is not one of those instances. Tiernan absolutely wallops the ball, sending it screaming just above the grass until it punches the back of the net.

But her scoring and pressing aren’t the only parts of her game in which she’s impressing. According to American Soccer Analysis’ goals added (g+) metric, Tiernan is top-3 in passing and dribbling g+ among strikers.

The simplest explanation of g+ is a measure of a player’s total on-ball contribution in attack and defense, split across six categories. Essentially, how well does their execution of an action that falls into these buckets change their team’s chances of scoring or conceding a goal. Given that Tiernan initially stood out as a pressing machine, it’s interesting to see her fouling and interrupting stats so low. Unfortunately for the opposition, this means that coaching can refine this aspect of her game.

Given what I said about her shooting, a -.02 seems to run counter. It does and doesn’t. When Tiernan gets a shot on goal, the strike is typically good enough to beat the keeper and dramatically improve the original xG through the quality of the strike. Right now, though, 12 of her 23 shots this season have been off target or blocked. But this also means that she’s also taken more shots that have resulted in goals than have been saved by goalkeepers. There’s room for refinement here as well.

One thing I love, and that is completely undersold about the NWSL, is the amount of new talent that enters the league from the college ranks every year. The league is constantly being refreshed with potential stars and intriguing storylines as we follow a player’s career from college to the pros. Now without a draft, teams are able to scout for correct fits within their club setup. This will only help players more quickly find their footing in the league, and Tiernan is a perfect example that I didn’t see coming. My bad.

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