2025 nwsl week 1: xG race charts & g+ pass networks

Oh we are so back. Not only are we back, I have some new hotness to share. As mentioned in my big ol’ funky NWSL team previews, I’m all in on American Soccer Analysis’ goals added (g+) metric this season. A primary reason is their ‘receiving’ metric, which aims to distribute the value of passes to both the passer and receiver. I love this. Soccer is such a fluid game that it can be hard to calculate the importance of movement and positioning away from the ball, but this is one way to do it.

If you love nerding out over this stuff (whether you understand all of it or not), they’ve published a deep dive of the methodology. An explanation of receiving can be found under the ‘Pass-receipt allocation’ heading. Long story short, it’s based on their expected pass (xPass) metric, which is calculated similarly to expected goals. It’s neat stuff and I love the end product, and am excited to track it this season.

So in addition to xG race charts and standard pass networks, we’re also adding Pass and Receiving g+ to each team’s pass map. Using a color scale of red (oof) to green (hoopin), each starting player’s Passing g+ will be represented by color-filled bubbles as usual, but we’ve also added a ring around each bubble to track Receiving g+ too.

Here’s what this looked like in Orlando’s Challenge Cup game against the Washington Spirit.

Nadaner, Rafaelle, Abello and Marta had positive Passing g+ contributions, while Banda (obvs) and center back Rafaelle (!) had positive Receiving g+. Banda’s movement is obvious since she often gets on the ball in dangerous areas, but it also highlights center back Rafaelle’s effectiveness as a safe outlet from pressure. Goals added tracks actions within two possessions, allowing for a more complete look at the impact of an action.

Rafaelle didn’t just find space to receive passes that evaded immediate pressure, she then made positive passing contributions from there.

You may be able to tell that I am very excited about this. If you’re excited too, well, you’re in the right place lol. Even if you aren’t, it’s my job to change that, so thank you for being here and giving me the opportunity. Let’s get to week 1 xG race chart and g+ pass networks.

orlando pride 6-0 chicago tsars

When you can rack up 2.26 non-penalty xG and also field a finisher like Barbra Banda, you’re gonna pile up the goals more often than not.

I’m not going to criticize Lorne Donaldson or Chicago’s players much, because I largely feel they’ve been let down by their front office and ownership group this offseason.

I know Chicago invites a lot of pressure, but eight out of ten outfield players established an average passing position in Chicago’s half. Oofles. There’s almost no way to be competitive against, let alone beat, Orlando when they’re allowed to do this.

Also, shoutout to Haley McCutcheon, who provided a strong base in defensive midfield to receive passes to keep the ball moving or restart possessions. See, isn’t Receiving g+ fun?

Nadia Gomes (Coelho) did her best Mal Swanson impression but those are mighty illustrious boots to fill.

houston dash 1-2 washington spirit

Houston might just be alright this season. They need to increase their sharpness in the final third, but that will likely come with time and improved familiarity.

The good news for Houston is that they spent a lot of time in the Spirit’s half. They kept players close and were really good at breaking the Spirit’s press by switching the ball, getting wide players 1v1 in space. If they keep doing that it’s only a matter of time before they win matches like this.

Spirit bb r u ok? Washington started this game as slowly as they started the Challenge Cup against Orlando Pride. Unlike that match, the Spirit weren’t able to turn things around in the second half.

They had a 2-0 lead so maybe that wasn’t the aim of the halftime team talk, but I don’t think a Jona Giráldez-coached team has ever looked like this in possession. There’s work to do.

kc current 3-1 portland thorns

Keep in mind that Portland’s total xG is inflated by the penalty, which has a value of .78. So yeah, this wasn’t close. Given the opponent, Kansas City could’ve made an Orlando-esque statement, and probably should have.

Instead they started the second half flat and immediately conceded.

The response was good, but Moultrie missed a penalty that should have made it 3-2, and would’ve put the Current in a scrap they never should have been in. It’s three points, but, yet again with Vlatko, we will see if lessons have been learned.

Debinha (Oliveira) didn’t find the best pockets to receive the ball but once she got it she was an absolute menace with it. She had five shot creating actions in the first half, two from set pieces, and three from open play.

She created shots for Temwa Chawinga, Lo LaBonta, herself, Ellie Wheeler, and Alana Cook. Where I’m from we call that hoopin.

Rob Gale what the hell are you up to?

utah royals 1-1 bay fc

Both teams looked a bit weird in this one. I also have a little beef with that ‘big chance’ the expected goals gods credited to Dorian Bailey. The ball was loose in front of goal, but McGlynn was so close and in mid-pounce that sneaking it ny didn’t feel like a .21xG chance in real time.

Anyway, Utah should probably feel fairly good about escaping with a point because an average of .05/xG per shot is stinky. (That wasn’t all Ally Sentnor. Let her cook, you haters.)

Stinky.

Yeah, not what I expected from this team after the offseason they had. All those red rings should be a bit concerning, Bay like to go vroom these days but no one on Utah found space to receive passes and alleviate pressure.

Getting Ana Tejada out of the backline and into midfield could be an easy fix, but that was a lesson I thought we all learned last season.

Bay’s back three was somewhat surprising. I expected an inverted back-4, which is a thing many teams around the world do now, but this was a pure back 3 that might’ve taken Utah by surprise. Malonson and Dydasco were able to park themselves high up the pitch and work combinations with attacking players.

I normally get annoyed at back 3s because they often turn into back 5s. But this seemed like a true ‘in your face’ back three, which I might be here for.

Also, Taylor Huff is my serious pick for rookie of the year and she showed why in her very first game. She was all over the place spraying passes wide and popping up in pockets in and around the box. She’s a straight up low-socked menace who’s already looking like an NWSL vet.

rahsing louisville 1-1 nc courage

I’m not mad, I’m disappointed. I expected more from North Carolina, especially against a Louisville team that didn’t do a whole lot to improve themselves this offseason, while the Courage literally added Jaedyn Shaw—a final third cheat code in human form. It’s game one, so we’ll see how/if things progress beyond .08xG per shot.

As for Louisville, well, over half their xG total came from Emma Sears’ goal, which registered as a .83 chance. So yes I’m disappointed in them too, but the expectations were lower.

Emma Sears running go routes is basically all Louisville had, and to be honest it’s not a terrible plan. I wish they’d find a way to have more, but it feels like Louisville have unaddressed roster construction problems and when that happens you end up leaning on individual players winning individual battles. Sears is uniquely talented enough to win her fair share, but that’s not a plan for success throughout an entire season.

I so wanted more. Maybe it’s on me for having high expectations. And also, it’s early, things can change. Head coach Sean Nahas and the Courage are committed to the way they play, but I don’t think criticism is aimed at stopping that. Mine sure isn’t. It’s just that Jaedyn Shaw’s profile as an attacking player seemed suited to let the attack breathe and stretch its legs.

Yet Ashley Sanchez was pushed wide and closer to the halfway line than final third, Shaw was the second most advanced player, and the other was Tyler Lussi, who doesn’t provide enough goal contributions to be that advanced.

The bright spot was 19-year-old Riley Jackson, and not just for the goal. She was a solid facilitator from (literally) the center of the pitch. Claire Hutton did the same last season, and it ended with a USWNT debut. It’s early, but Jackson’s progression and consistency is a thing to watch.

seattle reign 1-1 gotham fc

This indeed was a game a soccer in the National Women’s Soccer League, that did indeed happen on March 16 of 2025. Yup, sure was.

As a Maddie Dahlien Zoomies Appreciator I enjoy the fact that her Receiving g+ was one of the highest across all games this weekend. Without Lynn Biyendolo, who missed the match due to injury, she was kinda left isolated after a lot of her forward runs.

I do not understand why, especially in this situation, Laura Harvey still refuses to start Nérilia Mondésir. It was her shot that bumbled around the box and eventually led to Emeri Adames’ equalizing goal. It’s almost like…

This is a Rorschach Test, not a pass network. Juan, my guy, are you ok? Is this a cry for help? Are you expressing complex emotions through erratic tactical setups? I’m here if you want to talk.

angel city 1-1 san diego wavé

Another game of soccer that did, indeed, occur this weekend. I don’t have a ton of faith in either of these coaches, the good news for Angel City is that theirs is, theoretically, interim. The good news for San Diego is that they have Delphine Cascarino.

Sam Laity has the majority of Angel City’s attacking players super stretched and for some reason mostly on the right, while the midfielders are all hanging out on the left. Seems less than ideal imo, and explains the limited connections in the attacking half.

San Diego’s press was intense and very effective, which was a surprising thing to see so early. Though I’m not sure how far you can go with Hanna Lundkvist and Savannah McCaskill as your primary middle third passers. At least Lundkvist has Cascarino ahead of her, and the good sense to roll the ball to her quite often.

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